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BENNERS  PROPHECIES 


FUTURE  UPS  AND  DOWNS  IN  PRICES. 

AVHAT  YEARS  TO  MAKE  MONEY  ON  PIG-IRON,, B;0GS,  CORN, 
AND  PROVISIONS.  ''    > 


By  SAMUEL  BENNER, 

.i 
An  Ohio  Farmer. 


■'I  know  of  no  way  of  judging  of  the  future  but  by  the  past," 

—Patrick  Henry. 


THIRD  EDITION. 


CINCINNATI:       • 
ROBERT    CLARKE    &    CO. 

1884. 


fc' 


^%i 


a^ 


Entered  according  to  Act  of  Congress,  in  the  year  1875, 

By  SAMUEL  BENNER, 

In  the  Office  of  the  Librarian  of  Congress,  at  Washington,  D.  C. 


COPYRIGUT,    1884. 


3^ 


DEDICATED 


^  1RICULTURAL,   MANUFACTURING,   MTNTMG,   MER':ANTILS, 
INDUSTRIAL,  FINANCIAL,  AND  COMMERCL\L  INTER- 
ESTS OF  THE  UNITED   STATES  OF  AMERICA. 


364864 


There  is  a  time  in  the  pnce  ot  certain 
products  and  commodities, 

Which,  if  taken  by  men  at  the  advanoa. 
leads  on  to  fortune ; 

And  if  taken  at  the  decline,  leadi  to 
bankruptcy  and  ruin. 


INDEX. 


Preface, 

Introduction, 

Predictions, 

Pig-iron, 

Hogs, 

Corn, 

Cotton, 

Provisions,     . 

Panic, 

Theory, 

Conclusions, 


PAGE 
7 

10 
13 
30 
56 
76 
90 
93 
96 
118 
125 


ADDENDA,  1884. 

Revision  of  this  Work,      .... 

Prophecies  Verified,     .... 

Signs  of  the  Times,  .... 

Average  Yearly  Prices  for  Pig-iron, 
Failures,         ...... 

Railroad  Stocks,  .... 

Miles  of  Railroad  in  U;  S. 

Winter  Packing  of  Hogs— Net  and  Gross  Cost, 

Corn,    ....... 

The  Weather,      ..... 

Stages  of  the  Ohio  River  at  Cincinnati,  Ohio, 
Corn  and  Hogs,  .... 

Cotton  and  Crops,    ..... 

Wheat,       


132 
135 
139 
144 
144 
148 
153 
155 
157 
158 
162 
163 
166 
168 


PREFACE. 


W^N  the  following  pages  the  object  of  the 
c4)  writer  is  to  give  brief,  full,  and  clear  ex- 
position of  the  ups  and  downs  in  prices  for 
certain  products  and  commodities  in  the  mar- 
kets of  our  country,  to  all  who  are  struggling 
in  the  same  for  a  competence. 

To  foresee  the  future  intelligently  in  regard 
to  supply  and  demand,  production  and  con- 
sumption, is  the  great  want  that  finance  and 
commerce  are  to-day  struggling  and  grappling 
with  and  striving  to  solve. 

The  question  of  prices  VAdll  always  be  of  great 
interest  to  the  producer  and  consumer.  The 
spirit  of  the  age  is  tending  toward  speculation 
in  the  products  of  the  ^'  Farm,  the  Mine,  and 
the  Factory."  All  business  operations  for 
profit  and  future  contracts  are  attended  with 
a  great  deal  of  risk,  and  the  leading  branches 
of  trade  demand  information  on  the  subject, 
and  that  the  uncertainties  of  the  future  be 
lessened. 

There  is  always  a  hesitancy  and  a  desire  for 
further  intelligence,  in  regard  to  engaging  in 

(vii) 


Vlll  PREFACE. 

aii}^  business  where  the  chances  for  profit  de- 
pend upon  so  many  contingencies  and  circum- 
stances. 

The  author,  in  presenting  a  practical  book 
to  the  public  on  the  subject,  and  on  the 
branches  of  trade  of  which  it  treats,  is  in- 
spired with  the  belief  that  it  will  be  the 
greatest  boon  to  the  reader  to  have  the  years 
of  high  and  low  prices  pointed  out  in  the 
future.  * 

It  should  be  the  highest  aim  of  the  farmer, 
manufacturer,  and  trader,  in  a  business  point 
of  view,  to  penetrate  the  future  and  calculate 
what  years  he  can  realize  the  best  prices  for 
his  products. 

Content  to  be  useful,  instead  of  being  volu- 
minous, the  writer  has  confined  the  book  to  a 
few  of  the  most  important  branches  of  trade. 
To  have  extended  the  work  to  the  dimensions 
of  embracing  other  branches  would  have  made 
it  more  copious  than  the  designed  brevity  of 
the  book  would  admit. 

It  is  hoped  that  to  this  volume  will  be 
accorded  the  merit  of  directing  more  atten- 
tion to  the  ups  and  downs  in  prices,  and  the 
causes  producing  and  influencing  the  same. 

And  now,  submitting  the  results  of  oui 
labor,  experience,  and  observation  to  the  in 


PREFACE.  IX 

diistry  and  commerce  of  the  country,  the 
author's  wishes  will  be  fully  realized  if  this 
little  volume  contains  any  information  which 
may  be  useful  or  of  service  to  those  interested 


INTRODUCTION. 


^rpHE  advance  and  decline  in  the  average 
^Jg  price  of  pig-iron,  hogs,  corn,  and  provi- 
sions in  the  markets  of  our  country,  for  a 
series  of  twenty  years  past,  and  for  certain 
periods,  have  been  as  alternately  certain  as 
the  diurnal  revolutions  of  the  earth  upon  its 
axis;  and  the  periods  of  high  and  low  prices 
have  been  as  regular  in  rotation,  as  the  an- 
nual return  of  the  four  seasons. 

Now,  Reader  :  You  who  may  study  the  ups 
and  downs  in  prices  as  collated  and  consid- 
ered in  these  pages,  and  operate  in  accordance 
with  the  advance  of  prices  and  tendencies  of 
the  times,  as  here  indicated,  will  surely  be 
successful ;  whilst  those  who  stubbornly  and 
blindly  prosecute  on  the  decline,  will  do  an 
unprofitable  business,  and  will  meet  with  con- 
tinued disaster  and  loss. 

I  am  well  aware  that  my  prediction  of  the 

downw^ard  tendency  in  the  prices  of  pig-iron, 

hogs,  corn,  and  provisions,  and  dull  trade  for 

the  next  two  years,  will  be  to  some  as  unwel- 

(x) 


INTRODUCTION.  11 

come  as  the  tolling  of  the-fire  bell  at  the  hour 
of  midnight;  and  to  others  as  unexpected  as 
was  the  approach  of  the  Medes  and  Persians, 
under  the  walls  of  Babylon,  to  the  banqueters 
at  the  royal  board  of  Belshazzar ;  but  we  can 
not  be  blamed  for  foretelling  that  which  can 
not  be  averted  and  which  past  prices,  and 
signs  of  the  times  indicate,  and  which  a  con- 
scientious conviction  of  duty  compels  us  to 
predict,  with  the  hope  that  our  premoni-^ 
tion  may  serve  to  diminish  disaster  and  save 
national  and  individual  interests  from  ruin. 

I  now  at  once  make  my  predictions,  and  will 
endeavor  to  demonstrate  their  certainty  and 
fulfillment  to  the  comprehension  of  all,  by  an 
examination  of  past  prices,  and  their  bearing 
upon  the  future,  as  analyzed  by  the  light  of 
practical  experience  and  sound  analogy. 


PEEDIOTIOE"S. 


PIG-IRON. 


E  PREDICT  that  the  average  price  of  No.  1 
foundry  charcoal  pig-iron  in  the  markets 
of  our  country  will  be  lower  in  the  year  1876 
than  in  1875. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  No.  1 
foundry  charcoal  pig-iron  in  the  markets  of 
our  country  will  be  lower  in  the.  year  1877 
than  in  1876,  and  that  the  daily  price  in  some 
months  of  that  year  will  run  below  twenty 
dollars  per  ton. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  No.  1 
foundry  charcoal  pig-iron  in  the  markets  of 
our  country  will  be  higher  in  the  year  1878 
fchan  in  1877. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  No.  1 
foundry  charcoal  pig-iron  in  the  markets  of 
our  country  will  be  higher  in  the  year  1879 
than  in  1878,  notwithstanding  the  resump- 
tion of  specie  payments. 


14"'  '''"',      BteKNER^S   PliOPHEClES. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  No.  1 
foundry  charcoal  pig-iron  in  the  markets  of 
our  country  will  be  higher  in  the  year  1880 
than  in  1879. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  No.  1 
foundry  charcoal  pig-iron  in  the  markets  of 
our  country  will  be  higher  in  the  year  1881 
than  in  1880,  and  that  the  daily  price  in  some 
months  of  that  year  will  run  above  fifty  dol- 
lars per  ton. 

The  average  prices  as  determined  for  the 
"  American  Iron  and  Steel  Association." 

HOGS. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  fat  hogs 
in  the  markets  of  our  country  will  be  lower 
in  the  year  1876  than  in  1875. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  fat  hogs 
in  the  markets  of  our  country  will  be  lower 
in  the  year  1877  than  in  1876. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  fat  hogs 
in  the  markets  of  our  country  will  be  higher 
in  the  year  1878  than  in  1877. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  fat  hogs 
in  the  markets  of  our  country  will  be  higher 
in  the  year  1879  than  in  1878,  notwithstand- 
ing the  resumption  of  specie  payments. 

I  predict  that  the  average  price  of  fat  hog& 


P^NIC.  15 

in  the  ma  ^^  -^^t  country  will  be  higher 

in  the  year  ifiSO  iVvan  t^    Iil79. 

The  average  prices  as  determined  by  the 
*' Cincinnati  Price  Current." 

PANIC. 

I  predict  that  there  will  be  great  depression 
in  general  business,  and  many  failures  in  the 
years  1876  and  1877,  and  that  there  will  be  a 
commercial  revulsion,  and  a  financial  crisis 
in  the  year  1891. 

Here  are  twelv6  prophecies  of  certain 
events  to  take  place  in  the  future,  and  they 
are  of  no  uncertain  sound;  either  one  of 
them,  if  taken  advantage  of,  by  large  opera- 
tors and  speculators,  would  make  and  save 
them  millions  of  money,  and  would  be  of  in- 
calculable benefit  to  every  person  in  this 
country.  To  know  when  to  shape  our  agricul- 
tural, manufacturing,  and  financial  opera- 
tions, j^o  as  to  secure  the  best  markets  instead 
of  the  worst,  is  the  end  much  to  be  desired  by 
all. 

These  prophecies  are  made  not  upon  sup- 
posed fanciful  speculation,  but  from  the  testi- 
mony of  twenty  years'  observation  by  the 
writer,  from  living  and  experienced  facts; 
from  the  yearly  average  prices  compiled  by 


16  benner's  prophecies. 

recognized  official  authority,  and  by  anal- 
ogy, relying  upon  '^history  to  repeat  it- 
self." 

The  writer  does  not  claim  a  "gift  of 
prophecy,''  but  he  does  claim  a  Cast  Iron  Rule 
that  will  do  to  keep  in  sight,  and  that  future 
ups  and  downs  of  the  markets,  and  high  and 
low  prices  in  certain  products  and  commodi- 
ties, can  be  calculated  for  some  years  to  come 
with  as  much  certainty,  and  upon  the  same 
principle  that  an  astronomer  calculates  an 
eclipse  of  the  sun. 

It  is  not  upon  record  that  Joseph  had 
Egyptian  weather  statistics,  or  tables  of  pro- 
duction and  prices,  to  base  his  prediction 
and  interpretation  of  Pharaoh's  dream;  but 
he  relied  upon  divine  power  to  fulfill  his 
prophecy.  On  our  part,  we  base  our  predic- 
tions upon  the  records  of  the  past,  and  their 
relation  to  the  future,  as  governed  by  the  un- 
changeable laws  of  nature,  and  only  rely  upon 
providence  for  their  fulfillment  to  give  us  the 
continued  regular  progress  and  development 
of  these  laws,  and  to  its  usual  dispensation  for 
seasons  to  make  large  or  small  crops,  and  not 
on  the  peoples'  efforts  merely. 

The  author  firmly  believes  that  God  is  ir 
prices,  and  that  the  over  and  under  produc- 


UPS    AND    DOWNS.  17 

tion  of  every  commodity  is  in  accordance 
with  his  will,  with  strict  reference  to  the 
wants  of  mankind,  and  governed  by  the  laws 
of  nature,  which  are  God's  laws;  and  that  the 
production,  advance,  and  decline  of  average 
prices  should  be  systematic,  and  occur  in  an 
established  providential  succession,  as  certain 
and  regular  as  the  magnetic  needle  points  un- 
erringly to  the  pole. 

Are  not  all  kinds  of  business  at  loose  ends — 
astra}^,  tossed  on  the  tempestuous  sea  of  un- 
certainty— from  our  imperfect  knowledge  of 
natural  causes  and  the  laws  by  which  they 
operate;  and  our  lack  of  accurate  statistics 
of  production  and  prices,  a  knowledge  o£ 
which  would  enable  us  to  discover  and  estabr 
lish  reliable  rules  for  our  guidance  in  the  fu- 
ture? Is  there  anything  certain  and  settled 
in  farming,  except  that  a  broom-handle  is  a 
sure  cure  for  hoven  in  cattle  !  Are  not  farm- 
ers, furnace-men,  manufacturers,  traders  and 
speculators  at  random,  like  a  ship  without 
compass  or  rudder  ?  Do  not  all  operations  in 
business  depend  for  success  upon  a  certain 
number  of  fixed,  reliable  rules?  The  rules 
\VQ  have  to  commence  and  transact  business 
upon  are  stereotyped  rules,  that  "  Honesty  is 
the  best  policy;"  that  industry,  energy,  per- 


18 


severance,  prudence,  economy,  and  so  on,  lead 
to  riches  and  competence.  These  are  all  good 
enough  in  their  line,  and  indispensable  to 
success,  but  are  they  ^1-sufficient  ?  Is  this 
knowledge  all  that  is  absolutely  required  for 
successful  business  in  every  department  of 
trade?  Is  there  not  a  knowledge  of  some- 
thing more  which  a  business  man  w^ants? 
And  who  is  not  a  business  man  ?  In  order  to 
guide  him  in  reference  to  future  prices  that 
are  to  rule  in  the  markets  of  our  country, 
we  can  not  close  our  eyes  and  ignore  the  fact 
that  there  is  a  want  of  rules  by  w^hich  to  in- 
terpret the  "  signs  of  the  times,"  and  to  ena- 
ble us  to  comprehend  the  future  status  of  the 
markets,  so  we  may  know  six  months  or  a 
year  ahead  what  are  to  be  the  conditions  and 
circumstances  that  will  produce  the  coming 
ups  and  downs  in  prices  for  any  product  or 
commodity,  and  when  the  changes  from  high 
and  low  prices  are  to  take  place. 

How  are  we  to  get  this  information,  this 
insight  into,  or  foresight  of  the  future  ? 

Do  the   Records  of  the  Weather  Give  the  Uulef 

\\\  seeking  to  forecast  future  prices  of  agri- 
cultural products,   the  w^eather  is  an  imjoor- 


UPS  AND   DOWNS.  19 

tant  element  of  uncertainty.  With  the  rap- 
idly increasing  means  of  observation,  and  the 
deep  interest  taken  by  governments  and 
scientists  every-where  in  the  laws  of  climate, 
the  development  and  path  of  storms,  nature 
of  calmS;  theory  of  winds,  movements  of 
masses  of  hot  and  dry  air,  and  the  phenom- 
ena of  rain  and  snow,  we  may  in  time  learn 
to  calculate  with  certainty  what  years  will 
be  dry  or  wet ;  when  we  may  expect  years  of 
heat,  storm,  and  cold;  but  with  all  the 
weather  statistics  of  the  past,  tables  of  meteor- 
ology, and  not  excepting  the  weather  wisdom 
of  almanac  makers,  it  will  not  come  within 
the  province  of  this  work  to  lay  down  rules 
by  which  to  forecast  the  future  of  the 
weather.  It  will  require  time,  research,  with 
improved  means,  and  a  more  complete  series 
of  meteorological  and  climatological  observa- 
tions to  form  a  system  of  probabilities  that 
can  be  useful ;  and  when  the  weather  proba- 
bilities are  reduced  to  a  science,  it  will  then 
be  a  long  step  to  determine  agricultural  pro- 
ductions and  prices  from  them ;  and  if  the 
time  should  come  when  the  weather  bureau 
at  Washington  can  predict  twelve  months 
ahead  instead  of  twenty-four  hours,  we  can 
then  know  in  advance  what  the  seasons  are 


20  benner's  prophecies. 

to  be,  the  number  of  bushels  or  pounds  of  any 
thing  to  be  produced,  what  prices  will  rule; 
and  we  can  all  make  money. 

It  will  not  be  one  of  the  points  of  this 
book  to  determine  the  causes  of  things j  or  the 
conditions  and  elements  which  will  produce 
the  coming  ups  and  downs  in  prices;  with 
these  questions  these  prophecies  have  nothing 
to  do;  it  will  only  come  within  its  sphere  to 
ascertain  and  point  out  the  periodical  return 
of  effects,  in  the  changes  from  high  and  low 
prices. 

We  know  the  effects  as  manifested  in  the 
ups  and  downs  of  average  prices,  and  good 
and  bad  trade,  and  it  seems  as  though  there 
ought  to  be  an  established  cause  to  produce 
results  of  so  much  certainty,  periodicity,  and 
alternate  regularity. 

The  difficulty  encountered  in  determining 
the  causes  producing  the  changes  in  produc- 
tion and  prices  is,  that  we  are  compelled  to 
reason  a  posteriori,  from  effect  to  cause,  and 
"  what  can  we  reason  but  from  what  we 
know."  All  original  causes  are  invisible,  and 
that  which  is  rendered  visible  through  devel- 
opment is  an  effect ;  the  cause  must  ex-ist  an- 
tecedent to  the  effect.  The  manner  in  which 
causes  and  their  laws  operate  to  produce  these 


UPS   AND   DOWNS.  21 

efifects  may  be  found  in  our  solar  system,  upon 
which  we  hereafter  give  some  theories.  All 
nature  is  found  to  be  the  servant  of  law : 
spring,  summer,  autumn,  and  winter  succeed 
each  other  in  unchangeable  regularity,  and 
the  recurrences  of  the  various  convulsions  of 
nature  are  being  determined  on  scientific 
principles;  none  of  these  things  happen  by 
chance,  but  all  of  them  by  some  law  which 
will  shortly  be  solved;  and  when  the  causes 
producing  the  changes  in  the  weather,  and 
the  operations  of  their  laws  are  better  under- 
stood, we  may  be  then  better  able  to  discover 
their  influence  on  the  state  of  business  in 
manufacture,  trade,  and  commerce ;  then  we 
may  be  enabled  to  fathom  the  conditions  and 
elements  that  will  produce  the  coming  ups 
and  downs  in  prices  which  are  to  rule  in  the 
markets  of  our  country. 

Do  the   Statistics  of  Production   Give  the   Rule? 

To  ascertain  when  the  changes  from  high 
and  low  prices  are  to  take  place : 

Who  is  it  that  can  tell  us  what  is  to  be  the 
production  of  corn,  cotton,  wheat,  tobacco,  or 
any  product  that  grows  from  the  ground,  and 
is  dependent  upon  the  season  foi  the  life  or 


22  benner's  prophecies. 

death  of  the  plant  ?  No  one  ;  after  they  have 
gathered  and  collected  all  the  information  ob- 
tainable in  regard  to  the  acreage  to  be  planted 
or  sown,  the  seasons  make  large  or  small 
crops,  and  not  the  farmers. 

A  cold,  wet  spring  through  the  months  of 
April,  May,  and  June,  is  almost  fatal  to  the 
corn,  cotton,  tobacco,  and  other  plants.  Also 
a  dry,  hot  summer,  has  the  efifect  to  destroy 
the  growing  stocks.  Floods  and  early  frosts  are 
great  destroyers  of  the  cereals  in  our  northern 
latitudes ;  either  one  of  these  elements  oper- 
ating diminishes  the  number  of  pounds  or 
bushels,  and  produces  short  crops ;  therefore, 
we  can  not  beforehand  determine  what  will 
be  the  production  of  any  year  by  that  which 
has  been  planted  or  sown. 

Statistics  of  agricultural  products  or  manu- 
factured commodities  are  generally  too  late  to 
be  available  for  present  use;  they  come  after 
a  person  has  made  their  investment  or  dis- 
posed of  their  property.  Agricultural  statis- 
tics, as  generally  compiled  at  Washington, 
tell  the  farmer  the  aggregate  amount  or  num- 
ber of  bushels  produced  six  months  or  a  year 
after  their  crops  have  been  harvested  and 
sold. 

Statistics  of  production,  either  estimated  or 


UPS   AND   DOWNS.  23 

sold  for  consumption,  are  not  sufficient  to 
operate  upon ;  one  is  too  soon,  the  other  too 
late. 

Commercial  estimates  are  too  high. 

The  future  can  not  be  calculated  upon  in- 
telligently by  agricultural  statistics.  The 
reason  why  they  are  not  reliable  is,  that  they 
are  not  given  in  by  ftirmers  correct :  one  far- 
mer will  think  it  has  something  to  do  with 
taxes,  and  he  will  give  them  in  low;  another, 
to  magnify  the  yield  of  his  farm,  and  other 
purposes,  will  give  them  in  high;  therefore, 
they  can  not  be  a  criterion  for  future  calcula- 
tion and  prices. 

Again,  statistics  of  what  has  been  produced 
may  vary  considerably  from  the  available 
supply.  We  can  not  make  any  correct  esti- 
mate or  compile  any  statistics  of  what  has 
been  done  with  a  crop.  The  corn  crop  of  one 
year  may  not  feed  more  than  two-thirds  of 
the  stock  that  the  crop  would  of  another 
year. 

Statistics  of  foreign  exports  are  not  to  be 
depended  upon.  The  estimated  aggregate 
amount  of  the  yearly  production  of  any  crop 
or  manufactured  commodity,  does  not  from 
year  to  year  approximate  any  regularity  of 
increase  or  decrease  that  indicates  future  pro* 


24  benner's  prophecies. 

duction;  and  therefore  the  course  of  future 
prices  can  not  be  determined  by  them. 

Statistics  are  generally  huge  columns  of 
figures,  of  which  no  one  knows  all  the  chan- 
nels from  whence  they  came,  all  the  clerical 
errors  in  their  compilation,  and  parties  inter- 
ested in  their  manipulation. 

In  attempting  to  explore  and  explain  the 
elements  in  these  statistical  tables  and  prob- 
lems of  which  people  think  are  few  and  eas- 
ily read,  the  real  supply  and  demand  will  be 
as  unfathomable  as  the  waters  of  the  briny 
deep. 

Does  the  Price  Give  the  Rule? 

The  price  of  any  product  is  the  exponent 
of  the  accumulated  wisdom  of  the  country  in 
regard  to  the  available  supply  and  prospec- 
tive demand  for  that  product;  and  as  the 
price  advances  or  declines,  so  it  indicates  the 
surplus  or  deficit  of  any  product  or  commod- 
ity. 

The  daily  price  is  always  known  in  the 
markets.  There  may  be  incidental  causes, 
which  are  always  producing  slight  and  tem- 
porary fluctuations  in  value.  The  variation 
in  price  in  one  locality  from  another  may  be 
found  in  the  cost  of  transportation  or  other 


UPS   AND   DOWNS.  25 

local  causes.  The  price  is  always  known; 
the  amount  of  any  product  and  the  demand 
for  the  same,  is  not  so  easily  obtained.  The 
books  are  always  posted  in  regard  to  price, 
but  several  pages  behind  on  amount  of  prod- 
uct available  and  the  demand  for  the  same. 
The  price  is  the  index  of  the  probable  amount 
of  any  product  or  commodity  that  is  demanded 
for  general  consumption. 

The  price  which  an  article  will  command 
to-morrow  or  next  week  can  not  always  be 
known,  as  there  are  so  many  contingencies  to 
cause  temporary  fluctuations  in  the  markets. 
One  or  more  of  the  various  products  may  be 
manipulated  so  as  to  influence  the  price  to 
advance  or  decline  for  a  short  time,  but  specu- 
lators can  not  influence  any  market  only  tem- 
porarily. 

It  is  not  within  the  wisdom  of  finite  beings 
to  comprehend  all  the  temporary  circumstan- 
ces connected  with  prices,  as  governed  and 
influenced  by  supply  and  demand,  w^eather 
and  seasons,  combinations  and  corners,  longs 
and  shorts,  puts  and  calls,  and  bulls  and  bears 
to  operate  upon  the  market. 

Now  as  the  temporary  price  is  uncertain, 
let  us  look  further  into  the  subject  of  prices 
to  find  a  rule,  and  take  the  average  to  ascer- 


26  benner's  prophecies. 

tain  if  there  is  any  regularity  existing  in  the 
run  of  the  markets.  As  prices  of  agricultural 
products  are  governed  by  production,  and  pro- 
duction is  governed  by  the  seasons,  and  as  it 
takes  the  four  seasons  to  determime  the  abund- 
ance or  scarcity  of  a  crop;  therefore  we  are 
compelled  to  take  the  yearly  average  price  to 
get  above  and  beyond  the  control  and  influ- 
ence of  speculators,  manipulators,  and  corners 
upon  the  market. 

The  yearly  average  price  is  ascertained  by 
taking  the  price  each  day,  week,  or  month,  at 
one  or  more  of  the  markets  where  the  articles 
are  bought  and  sold,  and  by  adding  the  whole 
together,  and  then  dividing  by  the  number 
of  times  taken,  the  quotient  will  give  the 
average  for  a  year. 

When  the  yearly  average  price  is  very  low 
for  any  product  or  commodity,  and  next  yeai 
advances,  and  so  on  until  it  reaches  the  high- 
est average,  is  that  which  is  here  denomi- 
nated an  ^'ujjf^^  When  the  average  price  de- 
clines from  one  year  to  another  to  the  lowest 
average,  is  that  which  is  here  denominated  a 

The  "ups  and  downs"  of  yearly  average 
prices,  in  a  series  of  years  for  some  articles, 
are  very  noticeable;  and  it  can  be  observed 


UPS   AND   DOWNS.  27 

that  it  takes  a  required  number  of  years  to 
complete  an  "  up  and  down.'^ 

Now  to  find  a  rule  that  can  give  us  any  fore- 
sight of  future  markets,  we  must  look  to  the 
past  ups  and  downs  of  average  prices;  then 
ascertain  how  many  years  it  takes  to  complete 
an  up  and  down  in  any  product  or  commodity, 
then  determine  in  what  order  the  ups  and 
downs  are  repeated  in  the  next  cycle ;  and  if 
there  is  found  any  noticeable  periodicity  in 
cycles,  then  we  have  a  rule  which  can  be 
applied  to  the  future.  An  up  and  down  or  a 
down  and  up  in  average  prices,  is  in  this 
book  denominated  a  cycle. 

The  cycles  in  yearly  average  prices 

Gives  Us  The  Rule. 

The  indubitable  evidences  and  testimonies 
of  observation  have  established  this  rule  as 
the  safest  we  have  ever  practiced  and  have 
ever  found  adapted  to  this  purpose.  And  in- 
side of  this  rule,  like  a  wheel  within  a  wheel, 
is  to  be  found  our  "Cast  Iron  Rule,"  which  is 
that  07ie  extreme  invariably  follows  another ,  as  can 
be  witnessed  in  all  the  operations  of  nature, 
in  all  the  business  affairs  of  man,  and  in  all 
the  ramifications  of  trade  and  industry;  and 


28  benner's  prophecies. 

in  every  cycle  of  average  prices  it  is  sho^^n  to 
what  extent  these  extremes  run.  This  rule 
when  applied  to  pig-iron,  hogs,  corn  and  provi- 
sions, is  as  persistent  as  the  attractive  and  re- 
pulsive forces  of  the  magnet,  and  as  unchange- 
able as  the  laws  of  the  Medes  and  Persians. 

This  knowledge  of  the  years  in  which  high 
and  low  prices  return  in  the  markets,  belong 
to  the  farmer,  manufacturer,  and  legitimate 
trader,  as  well  as  the  speculator ;  and  it  is  as 
important  that  this  intelligence  should  be 
known  to  one  as  to  the  other. 

The  ups  and  downs  in  prices,  as  considered 
in  this  book,  have  reference  to  a  series  of  years 
as  distinguished  from  the  daily  and  weekly 
fluctuations.  War,  panic,  and  elections  have 
not  changed  the  general  yearly  course  of  prices 
in  some  articles  for  many  years  past ;  and  we 
only  go  back  so  far  as  we  have  been  enabled 
to  obtain  reliable  yearly  average  prices,  or  the 
official  records  of  monthly  prices  at  New  York, 
and  from  them  we  can  date  their  unfolding, 
and  since  that  time  establish  by  our  rule  the 
full  development  of  our  system  of  prophecy. 

It  is  not  necessary  for  us  to  look  beyond  the 
present  century,  or  to  the  history  of  prices  in 
older  countries,  for  epochs  of  abundance  and 
scarcity,  to  prove  recurring  cycles  in  prices. 


UPS   AND   DOWNS.  29 

The  alternation  of  good  and  bad  harvests  is 
well  known  in  English  history.  "Tooke" 
published  a  history  of  prices  in  1838,  giving 
an  exhaustive  analysis  of  the  causes  producing 
abundance  and  scarcity  in  crops  in  the  eight- 
eenth century,  but  did  not  establish  any  rule 
by  which  the  future  course  of  prices  could  be 
arithmetically  calculated. 

It  is  to  the  present  nineteenth  century,  and 
in  the  land  of  free  America,  the  most  favored 
nation  upon  the  earth,  that  divine  providence 
has  arranged  this  matter,  for  not  only  the 
spread  of  the  true  principles  of  religion  and 
liberty,  but  the  full  development  of  the 
operations  of  the  unchangeable  laws  of  nature 
around  and  about  us. 

The  battles  of  Lexington,  Concord  and  Bun- 
ker Hill,  the  centennial  of  which  we  celebrated 
in  1875,  was  the  commencement  of  our  strug- 
gles for  freedom  from  the  tyrannical  yoke  of 
England.  The  War  of  1812  was  the  final  con- 
summation of  our  independence  in  the  arts 
and  sciences,  commerce  and  politics ;  and  the 
period  in  our  history  after  which  we  can  date 
the  development  of  the  reaper  and  mower, 
sewing-machine,  grain  elevator,  power  loom, 
cotton  gin,  stereotype,  steam  printing  press, 
railroad,  steamboat,    electric   telegraph,    the 


30  benner's  prophecies. 

compilation  of  average  prices,  new  elements 
and  sciences,  and  a  multitude  of  inventions 
and  discoveries  for  the  advancement  of  man 
in  his  onward  path  of  progress,  and  in  the 
knowledge  of  the  ways  of  an  inscrutable  provi- 
dence. 

Now  instead  of  pondering  over  farmers'  de- 
liveries, weekly  receipts,  visible  supplies,  and 
entering  into  an  expensive  collection  and 
elaborate  examination  of  statistics  of  what 
the  probable  production  of  pig-iron,  corn,  and 
hogs  will  be,  and  the  commercial  demand  for 
the  same,  and  what  old  elements  will  be  want- 
ing and  new  ones  to  be  developed,  and  watch- 
ing and  waiting  to  hear  from  New  York,  let 
us  call  history  to  the  witness  stand,  and  see 
what  it  has  to  testify  on  the  subject ;  and  also 
bring  into  court  the  testimony  of  observation 
and  experience,  by  taking  the  course  of  the 
averages  in  past  markets,  as  compiled  by  reli- 
able and  official  authority ;  and  also  the  years 
in  which  money  has  been  made  and  lost  in 
the  different  branches  of  trade,  and  then  by 
our  rule  make  the  application  for  the  future 

PIG-IRON. 

The  following  statement,  prepared  by  Hon. 
Henry  C.  Carey,  in  1849,  embraces  all  that  is 


PIG-IRON.  31 

definitely  known  of  the  progress  of  the  iron 
industry  in  this  country  prior  to  1854. 

Mr,  Carey^s  Pig-iron  Statistics. 

In  1810  the  whole  number  of  furnaces  in 
the  Union  was  153,  yielding  54,000  tons  of 
metal,  equal  to  16  pounds  per  head  of  the  pop- 
ulation. 

In  1821  the  manufacture  was  in  a  state  of 
ruin. 

In  1828  the  product  had  reached  130,000 
tons,  having  little  more  than  doubled  in 
eighteen  years. 

In  1829  it  was  142,000.  Increase  in  one 
year  nearly  ten  per  cent. 

In  1830  it  was  165,000.  Increase  in  two 
years  more  than  25  per  cent. 

In  1831  it  was  191,000.  Increase  in  three 
years  about  50  per  cent. 

In  1832  it  was  200,000,  giving  an  increase 
in  three  years  of  above  60  per  cent. 

In  1840  the  quantity  given  by  the  census 
was  286,000,  but  a  committee  of  the  Home 
League,  in  New  York,  made  it  347,700  tons. 
Taking  the  medium  of  the  two,  it  would  give 
about  315,000  tons,  being  an  increase  in  eight 
years  of  50  per  cent. 


32  benner's  prophecies. 

In  1842  a  large  portion  of  the  furnaces  were 
closed,  and  the  product  had  fallen  to  probably 
little  more  than  200,000,  but  certainly  less 
than  280,000  tons. 

In  1846  it  was  estimated  by  the  Secretary 
of  the  Treasury  at  765,000  tons,  having 
trebled  in  four  years. 

In  1847  it  was  supposed  to  have  reached  the 
amount  of  not  less  than  800,000  tons. 

In  1848  it  became  stationary. 

In  1849  many  furnaces  being  already  closed, 
the  production  of  the  present  year  can  not  be 
estimated  above  650,000  tons;  but  from  the 
accumulation  of  stock,  and  the  difficulty  of 
selling  it,  it  is  obvious  that  the  diminution 
will  be  greater. 

The  above  statement,  it  will  be  observed,  is 
only  statistical  in  regard  to  production,  al- 
though it  is  stated  that  in  1821  the  manufac- 
ture was  in  a  state  of  ruin;  and  in  1842  a 
large  portion  of  the  furnaces  were  closed. 
This  probably  was  in  consequence  of  low 
prices  that  prevailed  at  this  time. 

In  the  report  of  the  Secretary  of  the  Treas- 
ury for  1863,  the  only  official  source  for  aver- 
age prices  since  the  war  of  1812,  or  the  panic 
of  1819,  and  prior  to  1844,  that  I  am  able  to 
obtain,  is,  however,  sufficient  for  our  purpose ; 


PIG-IRON.  66 

it  is  recorded  that  1825,  '26,  and  '27  were 
years  of  very  high  prices  in  pig-iron;  after 
these  years  the  price  declined,  the  tariff  of 
twelve  and  one-half  dollars  per  ton  was  re- 
duced in  1833,  and  in  the  year  1834  the  price 
had  declined  to  a  very  low  figure  for  that 
time.  Business  was  depressed  in  all  branches 
of  trade;  the  aggregate  amount  of  duties  on 
all  imports  were  the  lowest  that  had  been  col- 
lected for  many  years  before  that  year;  this 
date  is  forty-two  years  ago,  and  I  commence 
my  table  of  the  ups  and  downs  in  prices  of 
pig-iron  at  this  time. 

The  finance  report  of  1863,  in  giving  prices 
for  the  New  York  market,  states  that  in  1836 
there  was  a  material  rise  in  prices  in  all  arti- 
cles, especially  pig-iron,  which  is  quoted  at 
sixty  dollars  per  ton;  and  in  1837  the  price 
advanced  to  seventy  dollars  per  ton  for  Scotch 
pig,  which  was  an  extremely  high  price,  and 
three  years  from  the  low  prices  of  1834. 

The  panic  in  money  caused  the  suspension 
of  specie  payments  by  the  banks  in  May, 
1837,  yet  the  price  of  pig-iron  had  commenced 
to  decline  in  March  of  that  year,  before  the 
panic  had  cast  its  blighting  shadoAV  over  the 
country. 

In  the  years  1838,  '^9,  '40,  '41,  and  '42  the 
3 


34  benner's  prophecies. 

iprice  continued  to  decline,  and  1843  was  a  re- 
imarkable  year  for  the  extreme  depression  in 
prices  that  prevailed  for  all  staple  articles. 
Scotch  pig  was  quoted  in  September  of  that 
year  as  low  as  twenty-two  and  one-half  dollars 
per  ton  ;  this  low  price  was  six  years  after  tho 
high  prices  of  1837. 

In  the  year  1844  the  price  commenced  to 
advance,  and  in  1845,  in  the  month  of  Ma}'-, 
the  price  is  quoted  at  fifty-two  and  one-half 
dollars  per  ton.  The  price  had  increased  thirty 
dollars  per  ton  in  twenty  months.  The  max- 
imum price  was  reached  in  a  few  months  less 
than  two  years  from  the  minimum  price  of 
1843— mark  this! 

Yearly  average  prices  in  Philadelphia  of 
No.  1  Anthracite  foundry  pig-iron,  from  1844 
to  1874,  both  years  inclusive;  and  production 
of  pig-iron  from  1854  to  1874  as  compiled  for 
the  American  Iron  and  Steel  Association. 


PIG-IRON. 

iBLE 

OF  YEARLY  AVE 

RAGE  PRK 

TOSS. 

TEAS. 

PRICE. 

1844 

.   .   2of  .   .   . 

1845 

.   .29^.   . 

1846 

.   .   271  .   . 

1847 

.     .    zoi    .     . 

1848 

.   .   26* 

1849 

.   .   22| 

1850 

.      .     201     .      , 

1851 

•      .   21t 

1852 

.   .   221 

1853 

.   .   36j 

1854 

.   .   36| 

736,218. 

1855 

.   .   27f 

784,178 

1856 

.   .  27* 

883,137. 

1857 

26|  , 

798,157. 

1858 

22J 

705,094 

1859 

.   .   23| 

840,627 

1860 

22f 

919,770 

1861 

.   .   20t 

731,544 

1862 

.   .   23| 

787,662 

1863 

.   .   35i 

947,604 

1864 

.   .   59J 

1,135,996 

1865 

.   .   468 

931,582 

1866 

.   .  46J 

1,350,343. 

1867 

.   .  44* 

1,461,626. 

1868 

.   .   39i 

1,603,000. 

1869 

.   .  40f  , 

1,919,641. 

1870 

.   .   33i  , 

1,865,000. 

1871 

.   .   35|  . 

1,912,608 

1872 

.   .  48J  , 

2,854,558. 

1873 

.   .  42f 

2,868,278. 

1874 

.   .  30J  . 

2,689,413, 

35 


36  benner's  prophecies. 

The  following  are  the  high  and  low  priced 
years  in  which  are  the  highest  and  lowest 
monthly  averages,  which  shows  when  the 
changes  commence  in  the  ups  and  downs  of 
the  markets  for  pig-iron. 

In  Finance  Report  the  highest  daily  price 
in  1837,  was,  in  January,  70  dollars  per  ton. 
In  report  of  the  Secretary  Iron  and  Steel  As- 
sociation, the  highest  monthly  averages  are 
as  follows : 

1845,  May,  34J  dollars  per  ton. 

1854,  June,  38         "  " 

1864,  August,  73f       " 

1872,  Septemher,    53^       " 
The  Finance  Report  gives  the  lowest  daily 
price  for  1834,  in  April,  38  dollars  per  ton; 
for  1843,  in  July,  22^  dollars  per  ton. 

In  report  of  the  Secretary  Iron  and  Steel 
Association,  the  lowest  monthly  averages  are 
as  follows  : 

1850,  July,  ....  20  dollars  per  ton. 
1861,  October,  .    18t    " 
1870,  December,  31^    "  " 

After  the  high  priced  year  1845,  the  price 
of  pig-iron  declined,  and  in  1846,  '47,  '48,  '49, 
it  continued  on  the  downward  scale;  and  in 
1850,  the  average  by  the  table  is  20J  dollars 
per  ton,  making  five  in  number  of  declining 


PIG-IRON.  37 

years  since  1845,  and  recording  severe  iepres* 
sion  in  the  iron  trade,  following  the  depres- 
sions of  1834  and  1843. 

Our  war  with  Mexico  in  1846,  '47,  '48,  and 
the  influx  of  gold  from  California,  did  not 
have  the  effect  of  changing  the  direction  of 
the  price  of  iron,  as  it  continued  to  decline 
during  the  war  and  after  peace  was  declared. 
After  the  3^ear  1850  the  i3rice  again  advanced 
in  1851,  '52,  '53  and  in  1854,  the  price  reached 
the  high  average  of  36  dollars  per  ton,  making 
four  years  of  advances  from  1850. 

The  uncertainty  of  all  manufacturing  busi- 
ness, especially  the  manufacture  of  pig-iron, 
for  the  want  of  general  knowledge  when  the 
periodical  decline  in  price  is  to  commence — ■ 
of  which  it  seems  our  sharpest  and  most  ex- 
perienced men  have  made  mistakes,  as  serious 
and  fatal  as  persons  of  less  pretensions,  experi- 
ence, and  business  qualifications — is  exempli- 
fied in  the  following : 

The  Iron  King  of  the  Hanging  Rock  iron 
region  in  Ohio,  in  the  year  1854,  was  so  led 
astray  by  success  and  fortunate  operations  in 
making  pig-iron,  as  to  order  wood  chopped 
and  ore  mined  the  fall  and  winter  of  that  year, 
sufficient,  it  was  claimed,  to  run  a  certain  fur- 
nace the  succeeding  year  "  thirteen  months  out 


38  benner's  prophecies. 

oftwelveJ^  As  pig-iron  at  fifty  dollars  per  ton 
would  make  all  furnace  owners  rich,  it  was 
surely  the  veritable  "  Alladin's  Lamp,"  and  it 
was  only  necessary  for  furnace  men  to  touch 
King  Pig-iron  and,  "  mirabile  dictu,^^  up  would 
come  the  oriental  genii  with  untold  wealth. 
But  alas!  what  of  the  times?  Had  the  chances 
been  studied,  or  were  furnace  men  courting 
the  "delusive  phantom  of  hope"  and  blind- 
folding themselves  ?  What  did  the  balance 
sheet  of  that  year  show?  A  loss  of  fifteen 
thousand  dollars.  And  why?  Because  the 
price  of  pig-iron  had  tumbled  in  obedience  to 
the  effects  and  mandates  of  that  uniform,  uni- 
versal and  inexorable  law  of  over-suj^ply  and 
ander-demand. 

There  were  a  host  of  furnace  men  at  that 
time  whose  thoughts  were  in  the  same  chan- 
nel, and  who  claimed  that  iron  was  the  scep- 
ter to  wield  and  control  the  commerce  of  the 
world;  and  demanded  fabulous  prices  for  their 
furnace  property,  ignoring  and  forgetting  the 
records  of  past  history,  that  iron  has  its  upg 
and  downs  like  other  articles  of  manufacture; 
and  that  its  power  to  control  is  as  potent  on 
the  decline  as  when  on  the  advance.  And  in 
that  year  1855,  without  their  consent  and 
beyond  their  control,  and  in  accordance  with 


PIG-IRON.  39 

an  established  natural  rule,  their  pig-iron  was 
left  "  high  and  dry,"  and  as  time  glided  along 
in  the  seven  succeeding  years,  their  property 
would  not  sell  for  one -half  the  sum  that  before 
a  reasonable  price  demanded.  The  business 
became  prostrated,  and  furnace  men  lost  stacks 
of  money ;  the  great  majority  of  owners  were 
compelled  to  realize  on  their  stacks  of  pig-iron 
and  sacrifice  their  furnace  property  to  keep 
out  of  bankruptc3^  The  price  continued  to 
decline  to  the  year  1861.  The  writer  knew 
of  merchantable  hot  blast  charcoal  pig-iron 
selling  as  low  as  thirteen  dollars  per  ton 
during  the  winter  of  1860  and  '61,  in  the  city 
of  Cincinnati.  The  seven  years  from  1854  to 
1861  were  very  disastrous  to  the  iron  trade, 
and  prostrated  more  furnaces  than  any  period 
of  declines  in  the  history  of  this  country. 

The  commercial  reaction  and  financial  diffi- 
culty of  1857,  produced  a  general  calamity; 
paralyzed  the  hand  of  industry  and  cramped 
the  energies  of  the  people  for  four  long  con- 
tinued years  after  that  revulsion. 

In  the  fall  of  1860  the  banks  of  Baltimore/ 
Philadelphia,  Richmond  and  other  southern 
cities  suspended,  and  in  the  spring  of  1861 
the  war  of  rebellion  burst  upon  us  like  a  clap 
of  thunder  in  a  clear  sky,  creating  terrible 


40  benner's  prophecies. 

disturbance  in  all  the  ramifications  of  busi- 
ness, stopping  the  wheels  of  commerce  and 
producing  general  consternation  and  stagna- 
tion in  the  iron  trade. 

I  assert  it  here  as  a  stubborn  fact,  as  show- 
ing my  faith  in  these  cycles,  that  if  the  war 
of  rebellion  had  commenced  in  1854  or  in  1864, 
the  general  course  of  prices  for  pig-iron  would 
have  been  downward  in  tKe  following  seven 
years  after  1854  and  the  following  six  years 
after  1864,  succeeding  the  same  condition  to 
eras  as  the  price  after  1845  declined  five  years 
during  the  Mexican  war  of  1846,  '47  and 
'48;  however,  the  price  would  not  have  ruled 
so  low  in  1861  and  1870  as  it  did  in  1850.  And 
I  also  assert  as  an  unquestionable  fact,  that  if 
we  had  not  have  had  the  war  of  rebellion  from 
1861  to  1865,  the  price  of  pig-iron  nevertheless 
would  have  advanced  in  the  3^ears  1862,  '63 
and  '64,  although  the  price  would  not  have 
reached  so  high  an  average  as  it  did  in  these 
years. 

These  assertions  coincide  with  our  remarks 
heretofore,  that  war,  panic,  and  elections  do 
not  change  the  general  course  of  prices  in 
their  cycles;  however,  it  may  be  that  war  and 
commercial  revulsions  are  coincident  with  the 
advance  and  decline  of  the  price  of  pig-iron  in 


PIG-IRON.  41 

the  present  century.  Now,  again  we  have 
seen  the  price  decline  in  1865,  '66,  '67,  '68,  '69 
and  '70.  Six  years  of  decline,  although  the 
averages  do  not  run  so  low  as  they  did  from 
1854  to  1861. 

Again  the  price  takes  the  ascending  scalo 
in  1871,  and  scarcely  two  years  from  the  mini- 
mum price  of  1870  reaching  the  maximum  in 
1872,  when  the  average  of  forty  eight  dollars 
is  recorded.  Mark  this  advance,  and  remem- 
ber the  twenty  months'  advance  from  1843  to 
1845!  The  present  cycle  commencing  with 
the  advance  of  1871  and  '72,  and  continuing 
with  the  declines  of  1873,  '74  and  '75,  brings 
us  up  to  the  present  year  1876. 

In  the  table  of  yearly  average  prices  for 
the  year  1847,  the  price  is  higher  than  in 
1846.  The  Financial  Report  gives  the  price 
lower  in  1847  than  in  1846 — there  appears 
this  discrepancy  between  these  two  authori- 
ties. Also  for  the  year  1858  the  price  is 
lower  than  in  1859;  which  probably  was 
occasioned  by  the  panic  in  the  fall  of  1857, 
depressing  the  price  in  1858  for  a  short  time 
below  its  natural  and  proper  position.  And 
in  1865  we  also  notice  the  price  depressed  a 
fraction  below  the  price  of  1866.  And  again, 
in  1868  the  price  is  lower  than  in  1869.    These 


42  benner's  prophecies. 

irregularities  in  the  years  of  declines,  if  not 
errors  in  compilation,  are  likely  effects  of  ac- 
cidental and  temporary  causes.  In  the  years 
of  advance  in  the  price  of  iron,  we  have  none 
of  these  irregularities. 

It  has  been  within  the  experience  and  ob- 
servation of  the  writer;  and  as  for  himself  re- 
quires no  authority  for  the  information  that 
the  price  of  pig-iron  was  very  high  in  the 
years  1837,  1845,  1854,  1864,  and  1872,  and 
that  these  years  were  the  highest  priced  years 
since  1834;  and  also  that  the  iron  trade  was 
severely  depressed  in  the  years  1834,  1843, 
1850,  1861,  and  1870,  and  that  these  years  were 
the  lowest  priced  years  since  1834. 

Now  we  have  our  data;  having  traveled 
over  the  facts  in  a  voyage  of  discovery  and 
secured  our  evidence,  let  us  form  our  cycles 
and  see  if  we  can  make  out  a  rule.  Com- 
mencing with  the  low  priced  year,  1834,  we 
have  stated  that  the  price  advanced  three 
years  to  1837;  declined  six  years  to  1843, 
making  a  cycle  between  low  prices  of  nine 
years.  Again  the  price  advanced  two  years  to 
1845,  and  declined  five  years  to  1850,  making 
a  cycle  of  seven  years.  Again  advanced  four 
years  to  1854,  and  declined  seven  years  to  1861, 
making  a  cycle  of  eleven  years.     Again  ad- 


PIG-IRON.  43 

vanced  three  years  to  1864,  and  declined  six 
years  to  1870,  making  a  cycle  of  nine  years. 
Again  advanced  two  years  to  1872,  and  de* 
clined  three  years  to  1875. 

It  will  be  noticed  that  the  years  of  advances 
are  as  follows :  3,  2 — 4,  3,  2.  The  declines  are 
6,  5 — 7,  6,  and  3,  up  to  the  present,  denoting 
that  the  present  declines  are  not  full  by  two 
years,  of  which  it  is  necessary  to  have  a  cy- 
cle  of  seven  years  in  its  order  between  low 
prices.  Unless  history  in  detail  does  not  repeat 
itself,  the  future  can  not  be  judged  by  the 
past,  and  all  human  calculations  as  to  cycli- 
cal movements  in  prices  are  as  naught;  and 
there  is  not  any  thing  sure  and  certain  for 
man  at  the  present  day  and  age  but  death 
and  taxes. 

We  have  so  far  but  three  years  of  decline 
from  the  high  prices  of  1872,  and  if  the  cycle 
of  seven  years,  from  1843  to  1850,  is  to  make 
its  periodical  return,  and  be  repeated  in  its 
natural  order  of  two  j^earsof  advance  and  five 
of  decline,  then  the  cycle  of  seven  years  be- 
tween low  prices  in  its  order  is  to  be  filled  up 
from  1870  to  1877;  and,  therefore,  we  must 
have  two  years  more  of  decline  after  1875  to 
fill  up  the  cycle,  and  we  have  no  doubt  but 
that  "history  will  repeat  itself"  here  as  it  has 


44  benner's  prophecies. 

done  in  other  cycles  which  will  verify  and  es* 
tablish  the  accuracy  of  our  prophecy. 

Let  us  return  to  1837,  after  which  there  are 
six  years  of  decline  to  1843,  and  two  years  of 
advance  to  1845,  making  a  cycle  in  high 
prices  of  eight  years.  Again  the  price  de- 
clines five  years  to  1850,  and  advances  four 
years  to  1854,  making  a  cycle  of  nine  years. 
Again  the  price  declines  seven  years  to  1861, 
and  advances  three  years  to  1864,  making  a 
cycle  of  ten  years.  Again  declines  six  years 
to  1870,  and  advances  tw^o  years  to  1872,  mak- 
ing a  cycle  of  eight  years.  Again  declines 
three  years  to  1875,  requiring  two  years  more 
of  decline,  and  four  years  of  advance  to  make 
a  cycle  of  nine  years,  the  next  cycle  in  its 
order,  which  cycle  in  high  prices  ends  in  the 
year  1881,  this  3^ear  will  be  the  next  highest 
priced  year  for  pig-iron. 

The  following  scale  will  enable  the  reader 
to  better  understand  the  difierent  cycles  in 
high  and  low  prices,  and  the  order  in  which 
they  return. 


PIG-IRON. 


45 


THE  PAST. 


UPS. 

1835 

3  3836 

1837 


:  1844 


'  1845 


1851 

1852 

'■  1853 

1854 


1862 

3  1863 

1864 


1871 
1872 


DOWNS. 

1838 
1839 
ft  1840 
^  1841 
1842 
1843 

18:16 

1847 

5  1848 

1849 

1850 

1&55 

1856 

^  1857 

7  1858 

1859 


1865 
1H66 
.  1867 
*  1868 
1869 
1870 

1873 

1874 
1875 


THE  FUTURE. 


1878 
4  1879 
^  1880 

1881 


1889 

3  1890 

1891 


1876 
1877 

1882 
1883 
1884 
7  1885 
1886 
1887 
1888 

1892 
1893 
n  1S94 
^  1895 
1896 
1897 


46  bknner's  prophecies. 

At  the  bottom  of  the  scale  is  shown  the 
lowest  priced  years,  1834,  1843,  1850,  1861, 
1870;  and  in  the  future  1877, 1888,  and  1897. 

At  the  top  are  the  highest  priced  years, 
1837,  1845,  1854,  1864,  and  1872 ;  and  in  the 
future,  1881,  1891,  and  1899. 

This  scale  shows  that  the  cycles  of  the  lowest 
priced  years  are  in  a  decreasing  series  of 
arithmetical  progression,  and  in  the  order  of 
11,  9,  7,  and  repeat.  The  cycles  of  the  high- 
est priced  years  are  in  an  increasing  series 
of  arithmetical  progression,  and  in  the  order 
of  8,  9,  10,  and  repeat.  Also  we  observe  that 
the  price  of  pig-iron  advances  and  declines 
in  a  decreasing  series  of  arithmetical  progres- 
sion, the  advances  in  the  order  of  4,  3,  and  2 
years,  and  repeat;  the  declines  in  the  order 
of  7,  6,  and  5  years,  and  repeat. 

Since  1834  and  including  1875,  the  price  of 
pig-iron  has  declined  twenty-seven  years,  and 
advanced  fourteen  years,  making  the  ratio  of 
declines  to  the  advances  as  two  to  one.  The 
present  cycle  ending  in  1877,  will  complete 
five  cycles  in  low  prices  since  1834;  the  five 
cycles  in  high  prices  will  be  completed  in 
1881.  The  return  of  the  commencement  of 
the  different  cycles  in  their  periodical  order 


PIG-IRON.  47 

is  twenty-seven  years,  one-half  the  ordinary 
life-time  of  man. 

On  page  45,  the  year  of  advances  are  grouped 
together,  under  the  head  of  ups;  and  the 
years  of  declines  under  the  head  of  downs 
for  the  old  series,  and  continued  in  the  future 
for  the  new  series.  We  are  now  in  the  cycle 
of  seven  years  between  low  priced  years,  and 
at  the  beginning  of  the  fourth  year  of  de- 
clines in  this  cycle,  two  more  years  will  com- 
plete this  cycle,  and  also  the  old  series  of  the 
ups  and  downs. 

In  the  year  1878  we  shall  enter  a  new  se- 
ries of  ups  and  downs;  the  advances  com- 
mencing with  four  years,  and  declines  with 
seven  years,  making  a  cj^cle  of  eleven  years 
in  low  prices.  Also  we  are  now  in  the  cycle 
of  nine  years  in  high  prices,  and  in  1881  the 
present  high  priced  year  cycle  will  be  com- 
plete, and  end.  And  after  1881  we  shall  enter 
the  cycle  of  ten  years  in  high  prices,  complet- 
ing this  cycle  in  1891. 

In  the  years  1878,  79,  '80,  and  '81,  the  price 
of  pig-iron  will  be  on  the  ascending  scale,  the 
iron  trade  ivill  again  he  prosperous^  and  in  these 
years,  especially  the  last  two,  1880  and  1881, 
money  will  be  made  very  fast  in  this  busi- 
ness, unless  trammeled  by  unwise  legislation 


48  benner's  prophecies. 

upon  the  currency  and  tariff;  and  in  the 
year  1881,  in  the  months  of  September  and 
October,  the  price  will  be  at  the  highest.  After 
these  months  in  that  year,  the  price  will  have 
a  downward  tendency  and  begin  to  tumble, 
and  it  will  be  fortunate  for  all  persons  who 
may  be  readers  of  this  book,  and  may  regu- 
late their  business  affairs  according  to  the 
light  here  shown,  to  close  out  their  invest- 
ment at  a  good  price  in  that  year,  and  i) 
w^ould  be  to  the  interest  and  benefit  of  our 
whole  country  if  our  iron  men,  statesmen, 
and  others,  would  only  take  advantage  of  this 
information,  which  would  be  the  means  of 
placing  more  real  money  in  the  pockets  of  the 
people  and  coffers  of  the  nation,  than  the 
w^onderful  alchemy  at  AVashington,  which  is 
invoked  by  politicians  to  transform  old  rags 
into  beautiful  yet  numberless  greenbacks. 

When  the  iron  trade  is  depressed,  so  is 
trade  in  every  department  of  manufacture 
dull  and  unprofitable.  It  is  to  the  interests 
of  Trade  Unions  to  ponder  and  well  consider 
these  predictions;  as  upon  their  certainty, 
their  losses  by  strikes  for  higher  wages,  or  to 
maintain  former  rates  in  these  years  of  de- 
cline could  be  averted,  by  knowing  the  un 
changeable  tendencies  of  the  times. 


PIG-IRON.  49 

We  have  in  the  heginning  predicted  that 
the  daily  price  in  1877  will  run  below  twenty 
dollars  per  ton;  and  in  1881  above  fifty  dol- 
lars per  ton.  The  inspiration  that  directs  this 
prediction  is  found  in  the  fact  that  ^'one  ex- 
trenoe  invariably  follows  another/'  and  that 
the  daily  price  runs  below  twenty  dollars  per 
ton  in  all  the  low  priced  years,  and  above 
fifty  dollars  per  ton  in  all  the  high  priced 
years. 

The  years  1882,  '83,  '84,  '85,  '86,  '87,  and  '88^^ 
will  be  years  of  decline  in  the  price  of  pig^ 
iron,  and  years  of  depression  in  this  business^ 
These  seven  years  of  decline  w^ill  be  a  repe- 
tition of  the  seven  years  from  1854  to  1861'.. 
We  have  had  but  one  of  these  seven  year  de- 
clines since  1834,  and  it  would  be  to  the  ben- 
efit of  this  countr}^  if  we  should  never  have 
another;  however,  the  writer  is  compelled  by 
the  rule  of  cycles  to  point  it  out  in  the  fu- 
ture, and  warn  the  iron  trade  of  this  impend- 
ing danger.  And  we  proclaim  it,  to  all  who 
may  be  readers  of  this  book,  and  engaged  in 
any  way  in  the  iron  trade,  to  be  prepared 
after  the  year  1881  for  breakers  ahead ! ! 
What  we  have  to  say  on  these  cycles  in 
prices  w^e  are  positive  of,  and  w^e  may  as  well, 
right  here,  state  that  this  is  a  positive  book. 
4 


50  benner's  prophecies. 

In  the  repetition  of  these  seven  years  of  de- 
cline, Vvliich  these  cycles  surely  indicate,  ev- 
ery  furnace  in  this  country  will  be  slaughtered^ 
unless  backed  by  large  capital  and  ability  to 
stand  great  loss,  or  hold  their  iron,  stop  their 
furnaces,  husband  resources,  and  wait  for  bet- 
ter times,  as  pointed  out  in  these  pages. 
These  declines  will  not  encounter  a  general 
j)anic,  as  did  the  former  seven  year  declines 
in  the  panic  of  1857,  or  the  present  five  year 
declines  in  the  panic  of  1873;  and,  therefore, 
they  will  be  more  gradual. 

In  the  years  1889,  '90,  and  '91,  the  price  of 
pig-iron  w^ill  be  on  the  advancing  scale  again, 
and  will  be  three  years  reaching,  the  highest 
price  in  1891.  This  will  be  a  period  of  money 
making  in  the  iron  business,  and  these  will 
be  three  years  of  general  prosperity  in  all  de- 
partments of  trade  and  industry. 

After  1891  the  price  of  pig-iron  will  decline 
for  six  years,  and  these  declines  will  again  be 
disastrous  to  this  business;  in  fact,  all  busi- 
ness will  be  on  the  same  retreating  road  to 
hard  pan,  as  they  are  in  this  year,  and  will  be 
in  the  next,  as  the  iron  and  other  trades  and 
industries  after  1891  will  be  under  the  <)fFect3 
of  a  commercial  and  financial  revulsion,  aa 
shown  hereafter  under  the  head  of  "  Panic." 


PIG-IRON.  61 

The  writer  now  claims  that  his  showing  in 
the  preceding  pages  of  past  prices  in  pig-iron, 
the  cycles  between  high  and  low  priced  years, 
and  their  periodical  return,  has  a  legitimate 
bearing  upon  the  future,  that  no  one  can 
gainsay,  and  no  human  knowledge  can  contra- 
dict; the  predictions  are  based  upon  sound 
analogy;  their  fulfillment  is  demonstrated  to 
a  certainty ;  and  that  time  will  surely  verify 
the  prophecies. 

The  changes  of  the  ups  and  downs  in 
prices  and  cycles  in  the  iron  trade  are  peri- 
odical and  not  hap-hazard,  and  succeed  each 
other  in  a  gradual  and  natural  order. 

After  the  price  of  pig-iron  has  declined 
from  the  high  price  of  fifty  dollars  per  ton 
down  to  as  low  as  thirty  dollars  per  ton,  the 
saying  that  then  is  the  time  to  invest  in  the 
iron  business,  is  the  "  ignv^s  fatuus  "  that  has 
swamped  the  iron  men  of  this  country  in  not 
having  a  clear  conception  of  the  number  of 
years  in  which  the  declines  continue. 

We  can  not  determine  when  the  price  of 
any  product  or  commodity  is  at  the  highest 
or  lowest  by  the  knowledge  of  when  prices 
begin  to  rise  or  fall;  we  can  only  determine 
that  by  the  number  of  years  in  the  ups  and 


52  benner's  prophecies. 

downs  comprising  each  different  cycle  in  high 
and  low  prices. 

I  will  record  here  some  axioms  which  must 
be  admitted,  because  they  are  self-evident. 

That  prices  are  high  when  they  are  above 
the  cost  of  production  on  a  declining  market. 

That  prices  are  low  when  they  are  below 
the  cost  of  production  on  an  advancing  mar- 
ket. 

When  the  price  of  an  article  declines  below 
cost,  production  will  diminish  until  demand 
increases  and  prices  advance. 

When  the  price  of  an  article  advances 
above  cost,  production  will  increase  until  de- 
mand ceases  and  prices  decline. 

And  that  the  cost  of  production  is  the 
wages  of  labor,  interest  on  capital,  and  w^ear 
of  land  and  machinery. 

When  the  price  of  pig-iron  is  thirty  dollars 
per  ton,  it  may  be  either  high  or  low,  and  like 
a  certain  game  with  cards,  the  points  depend 
upon  the  trumps  that  are  out. 

If  the  cost  of  production  is  above  on  a  de- 
clining market,  then  thirty  dollars  per  ton  is 
high  ;  if  the  cost  of  production  is  below  on  an 
advancing  market,  then  thirty  dollars  per  ton 
is  low. 

The  ratio  of  advance  in  price  exceeds  the 


PIG-IRON.  63 

ratio  of  increase  in  cost  of  production,  and 
there  is  money  made  very  fast  in  the  iron 
business  during  the  2,  3,  and  4  years  of  ad- 
vance in  price. 

On  the  other  hand,  the  ratio  of  decline 'in 
price  exceeds  the  ratio  of  decrease  in  the  cost 
of  production,  and  furnaces  lose  money  on  the 
6,  6,  and  7  years  alternately  of  the  decline  in 
price,  unless  wages  and  expenses  are  curtailed 
in  time. 

To  apply  our  Cast  Iron  Rule,  when  the 
price  of  pig-iron  has  been  as  high  as  fifty  dol- 
lars per  ton,  the  price  in  the  succeeding 
years  has  invariably  declined  to  twenty  dol- 
lars per  toil ;  and,  vice  versa,  when  the  price 
has  been  as  low  as  twenty  dollars  per  ton,  the 
price  afterward,  in  a  certain  numberof  years, 
has  advanced  as  high  as  fifty  dollars  per  ton. 

The  iron  business  is  a  very  uncertain  trade 
for  persons  to  engage  in  who  are  not  ac- 
quainted with  the  number  of  years  in  which 
the  price  advances,  as  they  are  only  from  two 
to  four  years,  while  the  declines  are  from  five 
to  seven  \^ears. 

The  enormous  home  production  and  excess- 
ive importation  of  foreign  iron  in  1871  and 
1872  produced  a  break  in  prices,  and  with  the 
over  production  of   1873  and  1874,  and  the 


54  benner's  prophecies. 

panic  of  1873,  the  iron  trade  is  again  pros- 
trated. 

To  persons  not  acquainted  with  the  rules 
b}'  which  these  changes  occur,  as  reguhxted  by 
an  overruling  providence,  it  is  to  them  a 
wonderful  illustration  of  the  peculiarities  of 
trade  and  the  uncertainty  of  prices,  as  at- 
tempted to  be  explained  by  our  limited 
knowledge  of  supply  and  demand. 

In  the  spring  of  1872  the  country  was  pros- 
perous and  advancing  beyond  all  past  his- 
tory; railroads  were  extending  their  lines 
across  the  continent  in  every  direction,  mark- 
ing the  most  gigantic  railroad  expansion  the 
world  ever  beheld ;  creating  an  unpreceden- 
ted demand  for  iron,  giving  an  impetus  to  the 
*  manufacture  thereof,  that  had  no  parallel  in 
the  history  of  this  or  any  other  country,  run- 
ning the  production  to  nearly  three  millions 
of  tons  in  that  year.  All  at  once  comes  a 
snap  and  a  crash:  a  reaction  sets  in  so  speedy 
and  terrible,  so  general  and  decided,  that  we 
become  amazed  at  the  mysterious  workings 
of  this  trade  and  the  decrees  of  an  all-wise 
Providence. 

The  decline  in  the  price  of  pig-iron  since 
1872  has  been  over  fifty  per  cent. 

Iron  masters  are  crying  out,  ''Give  us  pro* 


PIG-IRON.  55 

tectioii  or  we  are  ruined,"  while  the  silent 
whisper  to  "reduce  the  product"  is  not  will- 
ingly and  generally  heard.  The  Secretary  of 
the  Iron  and  Steel  Association  reports  that 
out  of  701  furnaces  on  the  first  of  February, 
1874,  there  were  398  stacks  out  of  blast;  nev- 
ertheless there  were  fifty  new  furnaces  com- 
pleted in  1873,  thirty-eight  in  1874,  and  forty- 
six  stacks  in  the  course  of  erection,  and  other 
new  furnaces  projected  in  1875.  What  blind- 
ness and  what  folly  1 ! 

The  remedy  at  present  is  not  to  be  found  in 
a  tariff  alone  on  foreign  importation;  a  home 
competition  is  here  in  our  midst  more  formid- 
able  than  all  foreign  competition  combined. 
Seven  Hundred  Furnaces,  some  of  which 
cast  one  hundred  tons  of  metal  per  day,  are  ready 
to  swell  the  home  production  on  the  first  show 
of  an  advance  in  price,  beyond  the  most  ex- 
traordinary consumption,  and  producing  stag- 
nation more  disastrous  than  ever. 

It  is  a  hard  alternative  for  furnace  men  to 
be  compelled  by  the  ''logic  of  facts  and 
events,"  to  blow  out  their  furnaces  and  sus- 
pend business  for  so  long  a  time,  but  to  bo 
"forewarned  is  to  be  forearmed;"  is  it  not  the 
part  of  wisdom  and  policy  to  stop  before  the  cap- 
ital is  gone  and  stock  unprofitably  consumed  ? 


66  benner's  prophecies. 

We  have  not  seen,  in  our  experience  or  ob- 
servation, neither  do  the  facts  and  records  of 
modern  history  show,  a  permanent  advance 
until  after  five  years  from  the  highest  price  ; 
and  is  the  presen-t  decline  and  cycle  to  be  an 
exception  to  all  others?  and  in  the  face  of, 
and  succeeding  the  greatest  supplying  capac- 
ity the  world  has  ever  witnessed  ?  and  when 
other  manufactures  and  trades,  and  all  rail- 
roading is  depressed  and  unprofitable,  and 
when  all  Europe  stands  ready  to  suppl}^  any 
demand  at  pauper  prices  outside  of  this 
country  ? 

Verily,  the  hand-writing  is  upon  the  wall 
and  so  plain  it  needs  no  magi  to  decipher 
what  it  means. 

HOGS. 

The  history  of  the  Hog  Crop  and  its  va- 
rious manufactures  and  products  is  intimately 
connected  with  the  growth  and  progress  of 
the  Corn  Crop,  and  the  price  of  one  now 
generally  fluctuates  with  the  price  of  the 
other. 

The  packing  of  pork  before  the  era  of  rail- 
roads was  confined  to  very  narrow  limits,  and 
there  was  not  much  value  placed  upon  the 
hog  at  that  period,  as  will  be  seen  by  the  fol- 


HOGS.  57 

lowing  sketch   written   by  Charles   Cist,   of 
Cincinnati,  Ohio : 

"  Hog  raising  has  always  been  a  profitable, 
and  therefore  a  favorite  department  of  farm- 
ing in  what  was  formerly  called  the  West, 
but  which  now  constitutes  the  great  center,  as 
respects  population,  of  our  rapidly  expanding 
republic.  The  rich  harvests,  to  be  had  sim- 
ply for  the  gathering,  yielded  by  the  oak, 
beech,  hickory,  and  other  trees  of  our  forests, 
popularly  termed  mast,  formed,  to  a  great  ex- 
tent, for  many  years,  fattening  food  for  swine. 
The  roots  in  the  woods,  with  the  natural 
grasses,  supplied  subsistence  during  the  spring 
and  summer  months,  so  that  the  sole  expense 
to  the  farmer,  in  raising  hogs,  was  the  feeding 
of  those  too  young  for  market,  and  of  those 
reserved  for  stock  and  for  increase,  at  the  cost 
of  the  Indian  corn  necessary  for  their  winter 
sustenance.  In  early  days,  and  before  the  in- 
troduction of  railways,  this  cereal  would  not 
repay  the  expense  of  transportation  to  mar- 
ket, and  therefore  hardly  entered  into  the  con- 
sideration of  what  it  cost  to  raise  hogs.  In 
fact,  taking  into  view  the  prolific  character 
of  the  animal,  and^the  small  amount  of  labor 
and  expense  involved  in  its  care  and  cure,  it 
was  the  general  impression  in  the  West  that  it 


58  benner's  prophecies. 

cost  nothing  for  a  man  to  make  his  own  pork, 
and  for  a  long  time  vast  quantities  of  shiugh- 
tered  hogs  were  sold  in  tliis  region  at  prices 
ranging  from  seventy-five  cents  to  one  dollar 
per  hundred  weight,  and  considered  suffi- 
ciently remunerative  at  these  rates.  The 
writer  has  seen  in  the  southern  portion  of 
Illinois,  and  within  twenty-five  miles  of  land 
carriage  to  the  Ohio,  immense  quanties  of 
Indian  corn  offered  at  six  cents  per  bushel ; 
yet  at  this  low  figure  the  grain  would  not 
bear  transportation  to  the  river. 

"The  farmer,  unless  in  the  neighborhood  of 
a  distillery,  was  compelled  to  feed  his  crop  to 
his  cattle  or  hogs.  Even  at  a  much  later 
date,  between  the  scarcity  of  timber  for  fuel, 
and  the  low  price  of  corn,  large  quantities  of 
the  latter  article  have  furnished  fuel  in  the 
prairie  region  of  the  State  referred  to. 

"  As  the  cultivation  of  the  country  opened 
and  the  wood  ranges  became  more  restricted, 
it  was  found  that  it  paid  better,  while  it  was 
more  convenient,  to  feed  the  hogs  on  corn  than 
to  turn  them  out  to  the  woods,  as  they  grew 
faster  and  increased  more  rapidly  in  fat  as 
well  as  in  flesh,  while  the  quality  both  of 
meat  and  lard,  was  thereby  greatly  enhanced 
in  value.     At   this  period,  for  want  of  good 


HOGS.  69 

roads,  grain  to  a  limited  extent  only  was  sold 
to  the  whisky  distillers;  its  low  price  not 
permitting  it  to  be  carried  by  wagons  to  the 
distilleries  unless  from  short  distances.  Under 
these  circumstances  pork  packers  commenced 
at  various  points  in  the  West  for  the  supply 
of  the  eastern  markets,  while  the  rapid  in- 
crease of  hogs  kept  pace  with  the  correspond- 
ing improvement  of  the  western  country  and 
the  enlargement  of  its  corn  crops. 

"  Then  came  the  era  of  railroads.  It  was  at 
once  seen  that  hogs  could  be  delivered  at 
market  points,  either  East  or  West,  at  less 
expense,  in  shorter  time  and  in  better  condi- 
tion, than  they  had  hitherto  been  taken  by 
droves.  There  Avas  also  no  giving  out  of  the 
hogs  on  the  route.  The  natural  result  w^as  to 
give  a  new  impulse  to  the  raising  of  swine; 
and  from  that  period  the  hog  became  one  of 
the  most  important  staples  of  the  country.'^ 

In  examining  the  history  of  prices  for  hogs 
the  past  half  century,  w^e  find  that  the  price 
ruled  very  low  up  to  the  year  1830.  This  was 
the  period  when  there  was  so  little  demand 
in  Cincinnati  for  any  portion  of  the  hog  other 
than  hams,  shoulders,  sides  and  lard,  that  the 
heads,  spare  ribs,  neck  pieces,  back  bones,  etc., 
wore  regularly  thrown  into  the  Ohio  river  to 


60  benner's  prophecies. 

8:et  rid  of  them.  Afterwards,  ia  1835  the  pro- 
ducts of  the  hog  became  more  valuable,  and  iu 
the  year  1836,  in  the  city  of  New  York,  the 
price  of  mess  pork  advanced  to  thirty  dollars 
per  barrel,  and  lard  to  eighteen  cents  per 
pound.  (See  Finance  Report  of  1863.)  This 
year  was  a  very  high  priced  year  for  hogs  and 
their  product.  I  have  not  been  able  to  get 
the  average  price  for  fat  hogs  at  this  time,  as 
there  were  probably  none  compiled;  therefore 
we  are  compelled  to  take  the  price  of  prod- 
uct as  we  find  it  given  by  official  authority. 
After  the  year  1836  the  price  of  product 
declined  each  year  to  1842.  Mess  pork  was 
quoted  in  New  York  at  six  dollars  and  seventy- 
five  cents  per  barrel.  The  highest  quotation 
in  the  decade  from  1840  to  1850,  was  in  the 
year  1847,  the  great  famine  year  in  Ireland. 
Mess  pork  in  New  York  City  was  sixteen 
dollars  per  barrel,  eleven  years  from  the  high 
prices  of  1836.     Mark  this ! 

I  have  not  been  able  to  collect  reliable 
yearly  average  prices  for  fat  hogs  prior  to  the 
year  1855,  as  there  appears  to  be  no  sources 
accessible  to  obtain  them;  and  as  I  have  not 
the  evidence  to  show  any  noticeable  periodi- 
city or  regularity  existing  in  the  return  of 
low^  j^rices  before  that  time,  I  therefore  com- 


HOGa 


61 


mence  my  table  of  averages  in  the  year  1855, 
which  is  twenty-one  years  ago,  and  forty  years 
since  1836,  the  commencement  of  our  cycles 
in  high  prices  for  product  and  hogs. 

Table  of  average  prices  for  fat  hogs  at  Cin- 
cinnati, Ohio,  since  1855,  and  the  whole  num- 
ber of  hogs  packed  in  the  West  during  the 
winter  seasons  of  1849,  '50  to  1874,  75,  in- 
clusive, as  compiled  by  the  Cincinnati  Price 
Current. 


TEAES. 

1849    . 

so.  OF  HOGS. 

.     1,652,220    . 

PRICE  NET. 

GMOSS, 

1850    . 

.     1,332,867    . 

18-51     . 

.     1,182,846    . 

1862    . 

.    2,201,110    . 

1853    . 

.    2,534,770    . 

1854    . 

.    2,124,404    . 

1855    , 

.     2,489,502    . 

16.05 

$4.84 

1856    . 

.     1,818,468    .    , 

6.23 

4.99 

1857    . 

.    2,210,778    .    . 

5.16 

4.13 

1858    . 

.    2,465,552    .    . 

6.58 

5.27 

1859    . 

.    2,350,822    .    . 

6.21 

4.97 

1860    . 

.    2,155,702    .    . 

5.97 

4.78 

1861     . 

.     2,893,666    .    . 

3.28 

2.63 

1862    . 

.    4,069,520    .    . 

4.45 

3.66 

1863    . 

.    3,261,105    .    . 

7.00 

5.60 

1864    . 

.    2,422,779    . 

14.62 

11.70 

1865    . 

.     1,785,955    .    . 

11.96 

9.67 

1866    . 

.    2,490,791    . 

7.62 

6.02 

1867    . 

.    2,781,084    .    . 

8.25 

6.60 

1868    . 

.    2,499,873    .    . 

10.51 

8.41 

1869    . 

.    2,635,312    .    . 

11.82 

9.46 

62 


benner's  prophecies. 


PmCE  SET. 

GROSS. 

.     .    S8.25 

S6.60 

.    .      5.45 

4.36 

.    .      4.90 

3.92 

.     .      5.73 

4.58 

.    .      8.74 

6.99 

YEAFS>.  XO.  OF  HOGS. 

1870  .     .     3,695,251 

1871  .     .     4,831,558 

1872  .     .     5,410,314 

1873  .     .    5,466,200 

1874  .     .    5,566,226 
Average  price  at  Cincinnati  for  20  years  is 

S7.43  net  or  $5.94  gross. 

The  difference  that  Cincinnati  pays  above 
the  average  for  the  West  is  as  follows: 

1872  1873  1874 

Cincin'ti  net.    $4.90  §5.73  $8.74 

West  "        4.65  5.43  8.33 


25  30  41 

These  dates  refer  to  the  years  in  which  the 
crop  was  made.  The  packing  season  com- 
mences in  November  and  ends  in  the  following 
March.  It  is  shown  in  the  table  that  the  av- 
erage price  for  hogs  w^as  greater  in  1856  than 
in  1855,  but  less  in  1857.  This  depression  in 
the  advance  was  produced  by  the  panic,  how- 
ever, in  1858,  the  general  course  of  price 
asserts  itself  with  an  average  higher  than 
either  of  the  three  years  preceding  it.  After 
the  high  priced  year  1858,  the  average  starts 
out  on  the  descending  scale,  declines  in  1859, 
'60  and  '61,  making  three  years  of  declines 
with  an  average  in  1861  of  two  dollars  and 


HOGS.  t)3 

sixty  three  cents  per  hundred  weight  gross, 
This  year  was  the  beginning  of  the  war,  when 
farmers  were  almost  compelled  to  give  away 
their  hogs  on  account  of  the  low  prices  that 
prevailed. 

It  is  a  well  known  fact  to  the  farmers  and 
packers,  that  when  the  price  of  hogs  advanced 
in  1862,  '63  and  '64,  that  all  parties  made 
money ;  and  that  these  years  of  advances  cul- 
minated in  1864  with  an  average  of  eleven 
dollars  and  seventy  cents  per  hundred 
weight  gross,  which  is  the  highest  yearly 
average  price  ever  paid  in  this  country  for 
hogs.  In  the  years  1865  and  ^66^  the  average 
price  declines,  making  only  two  years  of  de- 
cline after  1861.  In  1867  the  price  takes  the 
ascending  scale, — higher  in  1868,  and  still 
higher  in  1869,  with  an  average  of  nine  dollars 
and  forty  six  cents  per  hundred  weight  gross, 
making  three  years  of  advance  after  1866. 
After  the  year  1869  the  price  took  the  descend- 
ing scale;  lower  in  1870,  '71  and  '72,  getting 
down  to  the  average  of  three  dollars  and  ninety 
cents  per  hundred  weight  gross,  making  three 
years  of  decline  after  1869.  In  the  year  1873 
the  price  advanced  notwithstanding  the  great 
revulsion  in  trade  of  that  year,  and  continued 
to  advance  in  1874;  and  the  average  will  be 


64  benner's  prophecies. 

higner  in  1875  than  in  1874,  making  tlirea 
years  of  advances  since  1872. 

Now  let  us  go  back  in  review  and  form  our 
cycles.  Commencing  with  1836,  a  high  priced 
year  in  product,  we  find  the  next  high  priced 
year  in  product  to  be  the  year  1847,  eleven 
years  from  1836.  Extending  this  eleven  years 
forward  we  have  the  high  priced  year  1858; 
our  commencing  year  in  high  average  prices 
for  hogs.  Extending  the  time  eleven  years 
further  gives  us  the  high  priced  year  1869, 
making  three  eleven  year  cycles  in  high 
prices. 

Again  let  us  return  to  the  year  1850,  a  low 
priced  year  for  hogs,  and  add  eleven  to  that 
year,  and  we  have  the  year  1861  a  Ioav  priced 
year;  add  eleven  again,  and  we  have  1872,  a 
low  priced  year,  making  three  eleven-year 
cycles  in  low  prices. 

But  we  are  traveling  too  fast,  and  we  must 
return  to  1847,  a  high-priced  year.  After  this 
year  the  price  declined  three  years  to  1850, 
and  then  advanced  three  years  to  1853,  mak- 
ing a  shorter  cycle  of  six  years  in  high  prices ; 
also  after  1853  the  price  declined  two  years  to 
1855,  and  then  advanced  three  years  to  1858, 
making  a  cycle  of  five  years  in  high  prices, 
and  these  two  shorter  cycles  from  1847   to 


HOGS.  65 

1858,  making  an  eleven  year  cycle.  After 
1858  the  price  declined  three  years  to  1861, 
and  then  advanced  three  years  to  1864,  mak- 
ing a  short  cycle  of  six  years  in  high  prices. 
Also  after  1864  the  price  declined  two  years  to 
1866,  and  afterwards  advanced  three  years  to 
1869,  making  a  cycle  of  five  years  in  high 
prices,  and  completing  another  long  cycle  of 
eleven  years.  Now,  again,  after  1869  the  price 
declined  three  years  to  1872,  and  then  ad- 
vanced three  years  to  1875,  making  a  cycle ■ 
again  of  six  years  in  high  prices,  and  com- 
pleting one  of  the  short  cycles  composing  the- 
present  eleven  year  cycle,  which  will  end* 
with  a  short  cycle  of  five  years  in  the  year 
1880.  Returning  to  1850,  the  next  low  priced 
year  was  1855,  making  a  cycle  of  five  years  in 
low  prices.  After  1855  the  next  low  priced 
year  was  1861,  making  a  cycle  of  six  years  in 
low  prices.  Again  after  1861  the  next  low- 
priced  year  was  1866,  making  a  cycle  of  five 
years  in  low  prices.  After  1866  the  following 
low  priced  year  was  1872,  making  a  cycle  of 
six  years  in  low  prices. 

It  will  be  noticed  that  the  short  cycles  com- 
posing the  eleven  year  cycles  in  high  prices, 
since  1847,  have  been  alternately  six  and  five 
years;  and  the  short  cycles  in  low  prices,  since 
5 


6Q  benner's  prophecies. 

1850,  have  been  alternately  five  and  six 
years. 

The  axiom,  "  History  repeats  itself,"  impliea 
a  cyclical  movement  in  human  affairs,  and  as 
it  is  a  generally  received  opinion  that  every 
tiling  moves  in  cycles,  especially  in  nature, 
we  are  forced  to  predict,  judging  the  future 
by  the  past,  that  in  the  years  1876  and  77  the 
price  of  hogs  must  decline  in  the  average,  so 
as  to  fill  the  required  number  of  years  neces- 
sary to  complete  the  present  five  and  eleven 
year  cycles  in  low  prices  ending  in  1877;  also 
after  two  years  of  decline  there  must  be  three 
years  of  advances  to  the  year  1880,  to  com- 
plete the  next  five  and  eleven  year  cycles  in 
high  prices,  and  therefore  demonstrating  to  a 
certainty  and  to  the  comprehension  of  all,  the 
fulfillment  of  our  second  series  of  prophecies. 

On  the  following  page  is  a  scale  of  years  to 
enable  the  reader  to  see  the  different  cycles 
in  their  order,  also  the  ups  and  downs  in 
prices  for  the  past  and  in  the  future. 

This  scale  shows  the  years  of  lowest  and 
highest  prices  for  the  hog  and  its  products 
since  1836,  coming  down  in  five  and  six  year 
cycles  after  1847.  At  the  top  of  the  scale  are 
the  highest  priced  years,  1836,  1847,  18r^3, 
1858,  1864,  1869,  and  1875  for  the  past,  a7id 


HOGS. 


67 


PAST. 

UPS.  DOWNS. 

'^        1856  1869 

1857  1860 

1858  1861 


1862 

1863 

1865 

1864 

1866 

1867 

1870 

1868 

•1871 

1869 

1872 

1873 

1874 

1875 

FUTUKE. 

1878 

1876 

1879 

1877 

1880 

1884 

1881 

1885 

1882 

1886 

1883 

1889 

1890 

1887 

1891 

1888 

68  benner's  prophecies. 

1880,  1886,  and  1891  for  the  future.  At  the 
bottom  are  the  lowest  priced  years,  1850, 1855, 
1861,  1866,  1872,  for  the  past,  and  1877,  1883, 
and  1888  for  the  future. 

We  have  now  passed  out  of  the  cycle  of  six 
years  in  high  prices,  the  year  1875  closing  this 
cycle.  The  next  cycle  in  high  prices  will  re- 
quire five  years  ending  in  1880;  at  that  time 
the  price  of  hogs  will  be  high. 

"We  are  also  in  the  cycle  of  five  years  in  low 
prices,  this  cycle  ending  in  1877,  when  the 
price  of  hogs  will  be  low,  and  farmers  com- 
plaining about  the  prices  they  are  compelled 
to  accept  for  their  hogs.  Pig-iron  will  also  be 
at  a  low  price  at  that  time,  placing  agricul- 
ture and  manufacture  at  a  low  ebb ;  prices 
low  all  round  will  make  "hard  times"  and 
"dull  trade." 

After  1877  agriculture  and  manufacture 
will  go  hand  in  hand,  the  price  of  hogs  and 
pig-iron  will  be  on  the  ascending  scale,  busi- 
ness in  all  departments  will  improve  up  to 
the  year  1880  and  1881,  after  that  time  prices 
will  decline  and  advance  alternately  in  each 
diflferent  branch  of  trade,  until  the  year  1891, 
when  general  business  will  culminate  through- 
out  the  country,   especially  with    iron   and 


HOGg.  69 

hogs,  two  of  the  most  important  and  leading 
branches  of  trade. 

It  is  to  be  observed  that  th'e  price  of  hogs 
do  not  go  up  and  down  with  the  number  of 
hogs  packed.  By  referring  to  the  column  in 
1858,  a  high  priced  year,  the  packing  exceeds 
any  previous  year  with  the  exception  of  1853. 
In  1862  the  price  advanced  with  the  enormous 
packing  of  four  millions  of  hogs.  In  1869  the 
price  advanced,  while  the  packing  exceeded 
that  of  1868 ;  and  also  the  same  may  be  said 
of  1873  and  1874  over  the  packing  of  1872. 

The  price  of  hogs  invariably  advance  three 
years  in  succession.  In  the  year  1859  the 
price  declined,  while  the  packing  was  short 
of  1858.  Also  in  1860  the  price  declined, 
while  the  packing  was  short  of  1859.  In 
1865  the  price  declined,  while  the  packing 
was  short  of  1864  600,000  hogs. 

In  some  of  the  years,  as  the  packing  in- 
creased or  decreased  in  number,  so  the  price 
advanced  or  declined;  an  increase  of  packing 
diminished  the  price,  and  vice  versa.  There- 
fore it  is  not  safe  to  rely  too  much  upon  re- 
sults based  upon  the  number  of  hogs  packed. 

The  price  of  hogs  decline  two  and  three 
years  alternately  in  the  cycles  of  low  priced 
years. 


70  benner's  prophecies. 

The  aggregate  number  of  hogs  in  all  the 
states  and  territories,  as  estimated  by  the  De- 
partment of  Agriculture  at  Washington  in 
1873,  was  32,632,000;  in  1874,  was  30,860,900. 
The  packing  in  1873  and  1874  was  about  one- 
sixth  of  the  whole  number  in  each  year. 
Chicago  packs  more  pork  than  any  city  in  the 
United  States  or  in  Europe.  Total  number 
packed  in  1874  was  1,690,348  hogs — nearly 
one-third  of  the  whole  packing  of  1874. 

As  the  winter  packing  of  hogs  is  only  about 
one-sixth  of  the  total  number  produced,  it  is 
an  important  question  what  becomes  of  the 
other  five-sixths,  and  what  proportion  is  an- 
nually killed.  I  must  acknowledge  this  to  be 
a  task,  to  undertake  to  make  out  such  an  ac- 
count by  any  system  outside  of  the  art  of 
^'double-entry  book-keeping.''  Almost  ever}^ 
farmer's  family,  for  domestic  consumption,  kill 
from  one  to  twenty  or  more  hogs  every  year, 
and  there  has  never  been  any  statistics  com- 
piled for  a  record  of  the  number  thus  slaugh- 
tered. 

There  were  engaged  in  farming,  according 
to  the  census  of  1870,  5,922,471  persons,  about 
one-sixth  of  the  population  ;  if  each  farmer  had 
killed  on  the  average  but  one  hog,  the  aggre- 
gate would  exceed  the  total  winter  packing  for 


liuGS.  71 

commerce  of  1874.  Then  we  must  considei' 
the  number  of  hogs  that  have  been  sUiugh- 
tered  by  butchers  in  the  cities  and  towns,  the 
number  that  annually  die  with  disease,  and 
also  the  number  that  is  reserved  for  stock  and 
for  increase.  From  these  facts  we  can  under- 
stand why  the  price  is  not  altogether  governed 
by  the  number  of  hogs  packed  in  our  large 
cities;  since  1868  the  number  of  hogs  packed 
has  yearly  increased. 

Every  farmer,  feeder,  drover,  and  packer, 
should  know  the  years  in  which  the  price  of 
hogs  are  to  advance  or  decline.  There  are 
seldom  any  two  years  in  succession  in  which 
the  average  price  ranges  the  same.  In  the 
table  of  averages,  there  are  two  years  in  which 
they  are  the  same,  1867  and  1870;  however, 
they  are  three  years  apart,  one  on  the  ad- 
vance, the  other  on  the  decline. 

In  the  years  1858,  1864,  and  1869,  a  great 
many  persons  made  money  on  hogs,  and, 
elated  with  good  fortune,  were  tempted  to  try 
again  in  1859,  1865,  and  1870;  and  through 
ignorance  of  the  workings  of  the  ups  and 
downs  in  prices,  were  caught  with  one  dol- 
lar corn-fed  into  six  dollar  hogs,  and  they  lost 
the  profits  and  gains  of  the  preceding  years, 
and  no  doubt  the  same  willbe  repeated  by 


72  benner's  prophecies. 

others  in  1876;  as  1875  was  a  profitable  and 
a  high  priced  year.  We  see  continually  some 
of  our  best  traders  "caught  out  in  the  wet/' 
and  to  some  persons  it  will  always  require  a 
Columbus  to  show  them  how  the  egg  is  to 
stand  upon  its  end. 

The  price  that  hogs  will  bring  each  year 
can  be  approximated  by  the  course  of  the  past 
averages;  however,  it  is  governed  by  supply 
and  demand,  and  state  of  trade  in  reference 
to  the  past  commercial  revulsion  and  the  fu- 
ture coming  crisis  and  the  condition  of  the 
currency.  Periodical  revulsions  do  not  in 
their  effects  change  the  general  course  of 
prices  in  their  cycles,  but  they  have  a  tempo- 
rary influence  to  depress  prices  belov/  their 
natural  and  proper  position,  and  an  after  in- 
fluence to  keep  down  the  averages  to  lower 
limits.  If  the  people  would  only  learn  such 
years  and  stay  out  of  tl)is  business,  or  confine 
themselves  to  smaller  trade,  when  these  de- 
clines in  prices  are  to  take  place,  especially 
after  panic  years,  they  would  not  complain  so 
much  of  "  hard  times  "  and  "  high  taxes." 

Farmers  think  that  packers  do  not  pay  a 
sufficient  price  for  hogs,  when  prices  are  on 
the  decline. 


HOGS.  73 

Packers  think  they  are  paying  too  much 
for  hogs,  when  prices  are  on  the  advance. 

Now  in  both  cases,  farmers  and  packers  are 
at  a  loss  to  know  what  the  future  development 
of  prices  will  be. 

In  the  farmer's  case,  he  receives  all  there  is 
in  the  market,  whether  it  covers  cost  or  nofc, 
and  the  packer  loses  money  on  the  further 
decline. 

In  the  packer's  case,  he  pays  the  market 
price,  and  makes  money  on  the  further  ad- 
vance. 

It  is  an  established  fact  that  the  quantity 
of  hogs  in  this  country  is  ruled  and  governed 
by  the  current  price  of  corn. 

In  the  commencement  of  the  periodical  ad- 
vance in  the  price  of  corn,  and  until  it  reaches 
the  highest  price,  large  shoats  are  marketed 
and  butchered,  the  hogs  that  should  be  win- 
tered are  slaughtered  ;  small  farmers  and  feed- 
ers sell  their  stock  hogs  in  the  fall  and  win- 
ter, to  large  feeders  and  speculators.  In 
consequence  of  hogs  being  massed  they  get 
overlaid  by  large  numbers  bedding  together 
during  the  cold  and  inclemency  of  the  winter; 
and  without  the  use  of  the  kitchen-slops,  and 
by  the  use  of  soft,  frosted,  and  rotten  corn, 
peculiar  to  these  years,  they  become  diseased^ 


74  benner's  prophecies. 

and  therefore  more  die  by  cholera,  thumps, 
and  other  diseases. 

On  the  other  hand  when  the  price  of  corn 
begins  its  periodical  decline,  and  until  it  gets 
to  the  lowest,  farmers  and  small  feeders  keep 
their  stock  hogs,  and  by  the  more  equal  dis- 
tribution in  smaller  numbers,  hogs  live,  are 
more  healthy  and  plenty.  Farmers  think  it 
will  pay  better  to  feed  their  corn  to  stock 
hogs,  and  raise  more  young  hogs,  than  to  sell 
their  corn  on  a  declining  market ;  but  in  this 
they  are  mistaken,  as  they  are  unknowingly 
producing  cheap  pork  for  the  whole  world,  by 
an  over  production,  the  surplus  of  which  has 
.  to  go  out  of  the  country  for  consumers. 

The  amount  of  hog  products  exported  cor- 
responds inversely  with  the  prices;  when- 
ever we  export  large  amounts  they  are  at  low 
prices,  and  when  prices  are  high  our  exports 
are  inconsiderable. 

To  sell  corn  and  hogs  at  the  market  price 
in  the  fall  to  others  who  have  not  studied  the 
chances,  the  production  in  the  years  of  de- 
cline is  made  profitable  by  them  who  know 
when  to  come  in  out  of  the  storm.  When  the 
periodical  advance  in  the  price  of  hogs  is  ap- 
proaching, the  butchers,  drovers,  and  packers 
secure  contracts  by  subtle  arguments  with  the 


HOGS.  75 

farmers  for  their  hogs,  and  as  a  consequence 
the  farmers  are  not  benefited  to  the  full  ex- 
tent of  the  advance,  as  they  are  induced  to 
engage  too  soon,  therefore  they  lose  the  op- 
portunities which  belong  to  them.  It  is  the 
usual  expression  and  opinion  that  when  a 
farmer  has  his  hogs  fat,  that  then  is  the  time 
to  sell;  this  depends  upon  what  cycle  of  sea- 
sons and  prices  are  ruling  in  the  markets  of 
our  country.  If  on  the  periodical  decline, 
after  a  year  of  short  crops  and  high  prices 
the  previous  year,  such  as  1858,  '64,  '69,  and 
'75,  then  would  be  the  time  to  sell.  If  on  the 
periodical  advance  after  a  year  of  good  crops 
and  low  prices  the  previous  year,  such  as  1861, 
^66j  and  72,  then  if  you  have  a  little  "specula- 
tion in  your  eye,"  it  no  doubt  would  be  a  good 
time,  and  pay  you  to  hold  for  a  rise. 

As  buyers  and  sellers  of  products  we  can 
only  be  gainers  by  scarcity  and  high  prices, 
and  that  only  for  that  article  which  was  ob- 
tained when  plenty  and  at  low  prices. 

Speculating  in  hogs  is  generally  with  the 
majorit}'-  a  matter  of  heads  and  tails;  when 
successful  they  are  owlish  wise,  and  of  course 
know  all  about  it;  but  when  tails,  then  the 
"  devil  is  in  the  hogJ^  It  is  a  most  signifi- 
cant fact  in  these  price  cycles,  and  a  confirma- 


76  benner's  prophecies. 

tion  of  the  theory  that  God  is  in  prices— that 
the  price  of  corn  and  hogs  could  advance  in 
the  years  1873,  '74,  and  '75,  during  and  im- 
mediately succeeding  the  great  revulsion  in 
trade  of  1873,  and  when  all  business  was  be- 
coming depressed  and  prostrated  in  manufac- 
turing industry,  trade  unions  striking  to 
maintain  former  rates,  mills  and  furnaces 
closing  their  doors,  merchants  complaining  of 
dull  times,  millions  of  laborers  and  mechanic! 
idle,  and  no  work  to  do.  Yet  we  say,  notwith 
standing  all  this,  corn,  hogs,  and  provisions 
have  advanced  in  price  in  these  years ;  for  the 
cycle  of  six  years  in  high  prices  from  1869  to 
1875  was  to  be  filled,  and  it  would  have  been 
contrary  to  the  order  and  laws  of  nature  to 
have  been  otherwise. 

CORN. 

This  cereal  is  known  as  the  largest  of  all  the 
grain  crops,  and  one  of  the  most  useful  prod- 
ucts known  to  man.  It  is  the  chief  basis  for 
provisions,  and  a  very  important  element  in 
our  breadstufif  supplies.  Notwithstanding  the 
greater  value  of  wheat  per  bushel,  corn  is  the 
great  item  in  the  prosperity  of  the  West,  and 
upon  the  good  price  of  corn  depends  the  wel- 
fare of  the  farmer.    A  large  and  over-estimated 


CORN.  77 

corn  crop,  that  reduces  the  price  to  a  nominal 
sum,  makes  farmers  feel  poor,  and  in  turn  re- 
acts upon  merchants  and  manufacturers,  and 
brings  about  dull  trade. 

Our  agricultural  products  and  stock  are  the 
basis  and  support  of  all  commerce,  and  of  all 
business  and  trade  in  every  department  of 
human  activity,  and  upon  which  all  other 
industries  rest.  Their  scarcity  or  abundance 
depends  upon  the  seasons,  and  mostly  require 
a  year  to  bring  them  to  perfection  and  ma- 
turity, while  manufactured  commodities  can 
generally  be  produced  in  any  quantity,  and 
in  a  much  shorter  time. 

The  commerce  of  the  world  is  so  dependent 
upon  agricultural  productions,  that  to  ascer- 
tain their  probable  annual  amount,  has  be- 
come an  object  of  the  greatest  utility.  A 
scarcity  or  abundance  of  crops  affects  the  ex- 
changes of  the  world,  and  tends  to  forecast 
future  prices,  and  to  give  some  clue  to  future 
production. 

Estimated  yield  of  corn  in  the  United 
States  from  1840  to  1874— the  years  1862, 
'63,  and  '64,  for  Northern  States  only— and 
average  prices  from  1862  to  1874  inclusive, 
collected  from  agricultural  and  statistical  re- 
ports. 


78 


BEXXERS   PROPHECIES. 


PBODUCTloy. 

A  rESAes 
PRICES.  OTS. 

377,000,000    . 

,       . 

592,000,000    . 

,              , 

838,000,000    . 

,              , 

533.000,000    . 

.    .    34 

397;000,000    . 

.     69 

630,0G0,0<DO    . 

.     99 

704,000,000    . 

.    46 

867,000,000    . 

.     68 

768,000,000    . 

.     69 

906,000,000    . 

.    62 

774,000,000    .     . 

.    75 

1,094,000,000    . 

.    54 

991,000,000    . 

.    48 

1.092,000,000    . 

.    39 

932,000,000    . 

.    48 

854,000,000    . 

.    65 

1840 
1850 
1860 
1862 
1863 
1864 
1865 
1866 
1867 
1868 
1869 
1870 
1871 
1872 
1873 
1874 


If  we  could  have  yearly  average  prices  of 
corn  for  the  whole  country  since  1825,  we 
would  find  that  they  would  show  the  same 
regularity  in  ups  and  downs  that  they  do  after 
1862.  The  Finance  Report  of  1863  in  giving 
prices  for  the  New  York  markets  (which  are 
a  long  ways  from  the  corn  producing  states) 
shows  that  prices  were  very  high  in  1825,  '26, 
in  1836,  '37,  in  1847  and  in  1858.  The  statis- 
tics of  the  Department  of  Agriculture  show  that 
the  average  price  was  very  high  for  1864;  in 
fact  higher  than  ever  before  in  this  country; 
and  again  the  price  is  at  the  top  figures  in 


CORN.  79 

1869,  as  can  be  seen  in  the  table  of  yearly 
average  prices  for  corn.  The  average  price 
for  1875  will  be  high,  and  it  is  the  next  high 
priced  year  after  1869.  These  high  priced 
years  correspond  with  the  price  of  hogs.  These 
years  are  the  highest  priced  years  since  1830, 
making  eleven  year  cycles  up  to  1858,  after- 
wards in  short  cycles  of  6  and  5  years  to  1864, 
'69  and  75.  The  next  high  priced  year  for 
corn,  which  is  in  the  future,  will  be  the  year 
1880,  eleven  years  from  1869,  and  five  3^ears 
from  1875. 

"We  find  the  cycles  of  eleven  years  in  low 
prices  by  taking  the  quotations  in  the  Finance 
Report  of  1863  for  the  New  York  markets,  and 
commencing  in  1828,  a  Jow  priced  year,  run- 
ning to  1840,  then  to  1850,  and  to  1861;  after- 
wards according  to  the  yearly  averages,  as 
shown  in  our  table  to  1872,  the  last  low  priced 
year.  The  next  low  priced  year  coming  down 
to  five  year  cycles,  will  be  in  1877,  and  the  one 
following  eleven  years  from  1872,  will  be  1883. 

The  same  scale  of  prices  for  hogs  will  answer 
for  corn.  When  the  price  of  hogs  has  been 
high  the  price  of  corn  has  been  high,  and  the 
same  when  the  price  of  hogs  has  been  low,  the 
price  of  corn  has  been  correspondingly  low. 
After  1858,  high  and  low  priced  years  run  in 


80  benner's  prophecies. 

the  same  order  of  six  and  five  year  cycles  in 
the  price  of  corn  that  they  do  for  hogs. 

Now  judging  the  future  by  the  past,  and 
looking  to  history  to  repeat  itself  with  ap- 
proximate accuracy  in  detail,  it  is  our  judg- 
ment upon  which  we  predicate  this  prophecy, 
that  the  average  price  of  corn  up  to  the  year 
1891,  will  advance  and  decline  with  the  aver- 
age price  of  hogs,  as  shown  in  the  scale  of 
cycles  in  the  price  of  hogs ;  and  that  the  gen- 
eral advance  and  decline  in  the  price  of  corn, 
will  precede  the  general  advance  and  decline 
in  the  price  of  hogs.  This  is  inferred  from 
the  fact,  as  before  stated,  that  the  current  price 
of  corn  governs  the  quantity  of  hogs  in  this 
country. 

The  price  of  hogs,  if  $2.50  gross,  on  the 
farm,  will  realize  to  the  farmer  25  cents  per 
bushel  for  his  corn. 


$3.00 

Gross, 

30. 

cents 

per 

Bushel 

4.00 

40 

a 

u 

u 

5.00 

50 

a 

u 

a 

6.00 

60 

n 

u 

a 

7.00 

70 

n 

a 

u 

8.00 

80 

u 

u 

a 

9.00 

90 

u 

u 

a 

10,00 

100 

a 

u 

a 

The  average  prices  gross  for  hogs  compared 


CORN. 


81 


with  the  average  prices  for  corn  per  bushel 
since  1862,  in  which  the  fact  can  be  noticed 
that  the  price  of  one  follows. the  price  of  the 
other  in  the  ups  and  downs  since  the  year  18G8 
as  regularly  as  evening  follows  morning. 

HOGS,  GROSS ^         CORN  PER  BUSUEL. 


1862  . 

3.56 

1863  .  , 

5.60 

1864  . 

11.70 

1865  . 

9.67 

1866  .  . 

6.02 

1867  . 

6.60 

1868  . 

8.41 

1869  . 

9.46 

1870  . 

6.60 

1871  . 

4.36 

1872  . 

3.92 

1873  . 

.   4.58 

1874  . 

.   6.99 

1875  . 

Average  prices  for  1875  not  collected  and 
published  in  time  for  this  book. 

The  corn  crop  never  falls  short  in  the  grow- 
ing corn  as  much  as  one-half,  but  a  large  crop 
can  be  cut  short  by  frosts,  floods,  damp,  etc., 
in  the  amount  secured.  It  is  not  so  much  in 
the  failure  of  the  crop,  as  in  that  which  is 
done  with  it. 

The   rational   explanation   of    the    partial 


82  benner's  prophecies. 

failure  of  the  corn  crop  in  any  one  year,  may 
be  found  in  the  peculiarities  of  the  seasons. 
The  number  of  acres  planted  is  no  criterion 
of  future  production  and  prices. 

We  were  well  informed  in  the  summer  of 
1874,  by  the  Agricultural  Bureau  at  Washing- 
ton, the  commercial  bulletins  of  the  East,  and 
crop  reporters  of  the  West,  that  there  were 
two  million  more  acres  in  corn  that  year  than 
in  the  year  1873.  Some  of  the  eastern  papers 
were  clamorous  that  the  crops  of  1874  were 
simpl}^  enormous,  and  that  prices  would  rule 
very  low;  therefore  the  "bears"  of  the  East 
commenced  to  fix  the  price  of  corn  on  the 
supposition  of  very  great  abundance,  while 
the  merchants  began  to  grow  concerned  about 
their  stocks  of  merchandise,  for  fear  the  farm- 
ers in  their  poverty  would  not  be  able  to  take 
the  usual  amount.  Now  what  was  the  corn 
crop  and  price  for  1874,  compared  with  1873, 
taking  the  estimates  of  the  Department  of 
Agriculture  for  production  and  prices,  as  they 
are  the  only  statistics  at  my  command. 

1873,  Production,  932,000,000       Price,  48o, 

1874.  "  854,000,000  ''      65c. 


78,000,000  17c. 


CORN.  83 

A  decrease  of  seventy-eight  million  of 
bushels  in  product,  and  an  increase  of  seven- 
teen cents  in  price. 

This  surely  shows  if  there  can  be  any  de- 
pendence placed  upon  these  statistics,  that 
seasons  make  large  or  small  crops,  and  that 
future  prices  can  not  be  foretold  by  the  acre- 
age planted  or  sown. 

The  number  of  acres  in  corn  and  produc- 
tion in  all  the  states  and  territories  in  the 
year 

1872  was    35,526,836    product     1,092,000,000 

1873  "      39,197,148  "  932,000,000 


3,670,312  160,000,000 

This  statement  shows  an  increase  in  area 
planted  of  three  million  six  hundred  and 
seventy  thousand  three  hundred  and  twelve 
acres,  while  there  was  a  decrease  in  product 
of  one  hundred  and  sixty  million  of  bushels, 
wnth  an  advance  in  average  price  in  1873 
over  1872  of  nine  cents  per  bushel. 

This  increase  in  area  planted  is  equal  to 
the  whole  number  of  acres  in  corn  in  1873  in 
the  great  state  of  Iowa,  the  second  state  in 
the  union  for  corn.  With  this  very  large  ad- 
dition in  area  for  corn,  it  is  a  surprising  fact 


84  benner's  prophecies. 

that  the  number  of  bushels  produced  was  one 
hundred  and  sixty  million  of  bushels  less 
than  the  year  before. 

Is  it  any  wonder  that  some  operate  upon  an 
overestimate,  and  others  on  an  underestimate, 
when  we  see  that  the  seasons  have  so  much 
influence  to  make  large  or  small  crops,  and 
also  when  our  knowledge  is  so  limited  in  re- 
gard to  meteorological  phenomena,  which  re- 
peat themselves  in  well  defined  and  estab- 
lished periods  ? 

It  has  been  argued,  and  is  proverbial,  that  it 
does  not  make  any  difference  to  the  farmers 
whether  they  raise  large  or  small  crops  in  the 
aggregate ;  what  they  lose  in  price  they  gain 
in  quantity,  and  what  they  lose  in  quantity 
they  gain  in  price. 

Now  let  us  see  if  statistics  of  agriculture 
will  carry  out  this  assertion.  Let  us  take  the 
last  cycle  of  six  years  between  high  prices  of 
which  we  have  the  yearly  average  prices,  for 
all  the  states  and  territories.  Commencing 
with  the  high  priced  year  1869,  and  ending 
in  1874,  the  year  before  the  next  high  priced 
year,  giving  us  three  years  of  small  produc- 
tion and  high  prices,  and  three  years  of  large 
production  and  low  prices. 


CORN.  85 

Years  in  which  were  the  .smallest  number 
of  bushels  produced  and  highest  prices : 

1869  774,000,000         75c.         58,050,000 

1873  932,000,000    48c.    44,731,000 

1874  854,000.000    65c.    55,510,000 


2,560,000,000  158,296,000 

Years  in  which  were  the  largest  number 
of  bushels  produced  and  lowest  prices  : 

1870  1,094,000,000        54c.        59,076,000 

1871  991,000,000         48c.        47,568,000 

1872  1,092,000,000        39c.        42,588,000 

3,177,000,000  149,232,000 

In  the  large  crop  years  of  1870,  71,  and  '72, 
there  was  produced  six  hundred  and  seven- 
teen millions  of  bushels  more  of  corn  than  in 
the  small  crop  years  of  1869,  73,  and  74,  and  " 
there  was  realized  in  these  small  crop  years 
by  the  farmers,  nine  million  and  sixty-four 
thousand  dollars  more  money. 

This  statement  is  as  clear  to  the  world  as 
the  light  from  a  kerosene  lamp,  if  there  can  be 
any  approximate  correctness  in  the  estimates 
of  the  Department  of  Agriculture,  that  ifc 
does  make  a  difference,  and  that  all  the  labor 
employed  and  exerted,  and  expenses  incurred 


86  benner's  prophecies. 

to  produce  and  handle  this  six  hundred  and 
seventeen  millions  of  bushels  more  of  corn  in 
1870,  '71,  and  '72,  than  in  1869,  '73,  and  '74, 
was  so  much  labor  and  money  literally  thrown 
away  so  far  as  the  farmers'  direct  gains  were 
concerned,  while  they  should  have  raised 
twenty  millions  of  bushels  more  corn  to  have 
realized  the  same  money  that  was  realized 
out  of  these  short  crop  years. 

Let  us  make  a  comparison  by  taking  the 
years  in  this  cycle  of  the  greatest  extremes 
in  production : 

1869  .  .  771,000,000  75c.  58,050,000 
1872      .     .1,092,000,000        39c.        42,588,000 


318,000,000  15,462,000 

There  were  produced  in  1872  three  hundred 
and  eighteen  millions  of  bushels  more  of  corn 
than  in  1869,  and  there  were  realized  fifteen 
million  four  hundred  and  sixty-two  thousand 
dollars  less  money. 

As  corn  was  cheap  in  1872,  and  the  farmers 
fed  a  great  portion  of  it  to  hogs,  let  us  see 
how  they  came  out  with  hogs; 

1869  .    2,635,312  hogs  packed  9.46,  24,930,051 
1872  .     5,410,314    "         "        3.92,  21,208,430 

2,775,002  8,721,621 


CORN.  87 

In  1872  there  was  sold  to  packers  two  mil 
lion  seven  hundred  and  seventy-five  thousand 
and  two  hogs  more  in  1872  than  in  1869,  and 
the  farmers  realized  three  million  seven  hun- 
dred and  twenty-one  thousand  six  hundred 
and  twenty-one  dollars  less  money. 

It  is  evident  that  in  the  years  of  decline  to 
lower  prices,  a  large  over-estimated  yield  is 
not  the  boon  desired  by  the  farmer,  and  it  is 
undoubtedly  to  the  interest  of  the  farmer  to 
use  more  of  that  energy  that  relaxes  no  effort ; 
the  perseverance  that  never  grows  weary  in 
striving  to  produce  more  corn  in  the  years  of 
advances  towards  higher  prices. 

The  farmer,  however,  is  placed  in  the  same 
category  in  respect  to  low  prices  that  the  man- 
uf^icturer  is  placed ;  if  the  fiirmer  has  to  take 
a  low  price  for  his  grain  and  stock  at  inter- 
vals, he  is  compensated  in  being  enabled  to 
purchase  manufactured  commodities  in  their 
low  priced  years,  therefore  alternately  each 
has  its  years  of  high  and  low  prices  that 
either  can  take  advantage  of. 

It  is  to  the  interest  of  the  farmer  not  to  be 
governed  too  much  by  present  demand,  and 
not  to  continue  in  the  course  it  directs  too 
long.  The  demand  can  be  calculated— the 
population  does   not  always   vary  with  the 


88 


seasons ;  it  is  the  supply  that  makes  gener- 
ally the  fluctuations  in  prices.  It  is  in  the 
nature  of  things  that  the  farmer  should  re- 
ceive the  benefit  of  three  years  advance  in  his 
corn  and  hogs  in  every  cycle  of  prices,  and  it 
would  be  injustice  to  him  if  he  should  be 
compelled  to  lose  his  labor  and  toil  by  the 
wolfish  and  bearish  cry  of  enormous  crops  and 
low  prices. 

The  ups  and  downs  in  prices  for  corn,  hogs, 
and  pig-iron,  aiid  the  activity  and  depression 
in  general  trade,  are  no  doubt  caused  by  an 
over  and  under  production  for  a  term  of  years, 
and  the  writer  has  an  idea  that  these  cycles 
in  prices,  which  are  so  well  defined,  and  re- 
peat themselves  with  such  surprising  accu- 
racy,  are  connected  in  some  way  with  the 
cycles  of  nature,  which  are  fixed  because  they 
are  produced  by  regularly  and  permanently 
fixed  causes,  which  are  constant  and  uniform. 

The  peculiarities  of  the  weather  and  atmos- 
pheric currents,  producing  these  extremes 
which  are  not  conducive  to  large  crops  of 
either  stock  or  grain,  were  seen  in  the  polar 
current  which  came  down  from  high  lati* 
tudes  on  a  course  parallel  to  the  Rocky  Moun- 
tains in  the  year  of  1874,  producing  the  sever- 
est and  most  continued  cold  we  have  exper* 


CORN.  89 

ienced  for  eleven  years,  since  the  winter  of 
1863-64,  and  in  the  summer  of  1875  the  trop- 
ical current  or  trade  winds  being  deflected  by 
the  Mexican  elevations,  entered  the  great 
basin  of  the  Mississippi,  and  again  deflected 
by  the  mountain  spurs  in  Alabama,  they 
swept  freely  over  the  states  of  Kentucky, 
Ohio,  Indiana,  Illinois,  Missouri,  and  Iowa; 
the  great  corn  region  of  the  world,  laden  with 
the  aqueous  vapors  of  the  G.ulf  of  Mexico, 
and  coming  in  contact  and  condensed  by  these 
cold  northern  currents,  occasioned  in  June, 
July,  and  August  of  1875  the  greatest  amount 
of  rain-fall  and  most  disastrous  floods  since  the 
years  1836,  1847,  and  1858. 

In  all  the  years  prior  to  and  including  the 
high  priced  years  in  corn  and  hogs,  we  have 
had  extremes  in  the  weather.  We  had 
droughts  in  1845,  '46,  and  heavy  rain-falls  in 
1847.  The  heat  droughts  and  cold  winters  of 
1856,  '57,  and  '58  were  very  remarkable.  The 
cold  winters  and  droughts  of  1863,  '64,  were 
unprecedented.  Extremes  of  heat,  rain,  and 
droughts  in  1868  and  '69  were  disastrous  to 
the  crops,  and  the  same  can  be  said  of  1873, 
74,  and  '75.  The  years  1879  and  1880  will 
again  be  years  of  extremes  in  the  weather, 
producing  short  crops  and  high  prices. 


90  benner's  prophecies. 

We  have  the  information  from  higli  astron- 
omical authority,  that  in  the  year  1880  we  are 
to  have  a  planetary  combination  as  to  three 
of  the  largest  planets  connected  with  our  solar 
system,  such  as  has  not  occurred  before  for 
about  2,300  years.  These  planets  are  all  to 
reach  the  nearest  point  in  their  orbits  to  the 
sun  at  the  same  time,  having  the  effect  upon 
the  earth  of  the  most  violent  and  wonderful 
changes  in  her  atmospheric  and  magnetic 
system  that  has  ever  i)een  recorded  in  his- 
tory. 

COTTON. 

To  give  contemporary  testimony  to  corrob- 
orate and  verify  our  price  cycles  in  corn  and 
hogs,  we  will  take  the  price  of  cotton,  which 
grows  out  from  the  ground,  and  is  affected  by 
the  weather.  Corn  and  cotton  occupy  all  the 
territory  lying  between  the  lakes  and  gulf. 
The  cotton  crop  of  the  Mississippi  would  be 
affected  by  the  floods  at  the  North  w^henever 
we  would  have  extraordinary  rain -falls,  or  by 
unusual  early  or  late  frosts. 

The  price  of  cotton  collected  from  Finance 
Reports  of  1857,  '58,  '63,  and  73,  these  prices 
being  from  the  most  reliable  sources  accessi- 
ble in  the  absence  of  any  other  official  record; 


1821 
1822 
1823 

1824 

1825- 

1826 

1827 

1828 

1829 

1830 

1831 

1832 

1833 

1834 

1835 

1836- 

1837 

1838 

1839 

1840 

1841 

1842 

1843 

1844 

1845 

1846 

1847- 

1848 

1849 

1850 

1851 

1852 

1853 

1854 


COTTON. 

16c. 

1855 

16 

1856 

11 

1857 

15 

1858 

20 

1859 

12 

1860 

10 

1861 

10 

1862 

10 

1863 

9 

1864 

9  11 

1865 

9 

1866 

11 

1867 

12 

1868 

16 

1869 

16 

1870 

14 

1871 

10 

1872 

14 

1873 

8 

1874 

10 

1875 

8  11 

1876 

6 

1877 

8 

1878 

6 

1879 

7 

1880- 

10 

7 

6 

11 

12 

8  11 

9 

9 

1891- 

91 


8c 
9 

12 
-11 

11 

lOj 

16 

41 

74 

05 

57 

40 

23 

26 
-29^ 

20 

17 

22 

19 


1  05  U 


11 


11 


92  benner's  prophecies. 

These  prices  are  for  New  York,  which  are 
sometimes  ruled  by  speculators,  and  allowance 
must  be  made  for  their  incorrectness. 

The  price  of  cotton  is  more  influenced  by 
the  state  of  trade  in  the  world  than  the  price 
of  corn  and  hogs,  and  therefore  it  does  not  fol- 
low the  production  in  this  country  so  close  as 
the  former  products.  Commencing  in  1825, 
we  find  the  price  of  cotton  to  be  twenty  cents 
per  pound,  the  highest  quotation  in  the  scale 
— except  during  the  war  of  rebellion;  the  next 
highest  quotation  is  in  1836,  eleven  years 
from  1825.  In  looking  ahead  in  the  table,  we 
find  1847  a  high  priced  year  in  respect  to 
other  years  preceding  and  immediately  after 
that  year.  Again  in  1858,  we  find  a  high 
price  with  the  year  before  and  the  year  after, 
all  high  priced  years.  Again,  in  1869  we  have 
the  next  high  price  after  the  war,  the  war 
coming  in  on  a  short  cycle  of  six  years.  Now 
extending  our  jDrice  cycle  of  eleven  years  from 
1869,  it  gives  us  the  year  1880,  our  next  high 
priced  year  for  cotton,  and  running  eleven 
years  further,  we  have  the  year  1891,  when 
cotton,  corn,  hogs,  pig-iron,  will  be  at  a  high 
price,  and  general  business  prosperous — up  to 
that  year. 


PROVISIONS.  93 

PROVISIONS. 

The  year  of  the  provision  trade  begins  the 
first  of  November  and  ends  on  the  last  day 
of  October. 

The  statistics  are  mostly  made  up  com- 
mencing with  November.  However,  with 
these  statistics,  as  generally  compiled,  the 
writer  in  his  observation  does  not  lay  much 
store  by  them. 

How  many  hogs  are  annually  killed  is  one 
of  the  mooted  and  unsolved  problems  of  the 
day.  The  statistics  of  winter  and  summer 
packing  of  hogs  are  no  doubt  reliable,  or  as 
near  correct  as  can  be  compiled,  but  the  do- 
mestic killing  by  farmers  and  butchers  is 
not  collated  for  the  public,  which  is  a  very 
important  item  to  be  considered  in  our  pro- 
vision statistics.  Therefore  we  are  forced  to 
take  for  granted  that  a  part  is  not  sufficient 
without  the  whole. 

It  is  almost  an  impossibility  to  procure  full  , 
and  reliable  statistics  of  the  exact  amount  of 
hog  products  in  this  country;  and  also  what 
becomes  of  all  the  pork,  bacon,  lard,  etc.,  that 
are  prepared  in  this  country  to  be  consumed 
at  home,  or  sold  to  commerce.  And  again, 
what  the  probable  commercial  demand  will 


94  benner's  prophecies. 

be  for  hog  products  within  the  provision  year. 
As  there  are  so  many  elements  entering  into 
the  probable  supply  and  prospective  demand, 
that  we  can  not  form  a  correct  opinion  in  ref- 
erence to  the  advance  or  decline  in  prices 
other  than  by  keeping  in  view  the  advance 
and  decline  in  the  general  course  of  prices 
for  hogs  from  year  to  year. 

The  price  of  the  hog  products  have  hereto- 
fore followed  closely  to  the  price  of  hogs. 
Taking  the  last  cycle  in  high  prices  for  hogs, 
we  find  that  after  the  high  priced  year  1869, 
the  price  of  provisions  declined  in  1870,  71, 
and  '72,  reaching  the  lowest  limit  in  the  sum- 
mer of  1872.  In  the  year  1873,  when  the 
price  of  hogs  advanced,  provisions  also  ad- 
vanced. Speculators  are  generally  alive  to 
these  facts,  and  on  these  periodical  advances 
they  are  ready  and  willing  to  operate,  and  in- 
vest as  described  in  the  following. 

Chicago  was  well  convinced  in  1873,  while 
hogs  were  advancing  in  price,  that  "  then  was 
the  time  in  the  price  which,  if  taken  at  the 
advance,  leads  on  to  fortune,"  and  her  opera- 
tors went  in  on  a  bull  speculation,  and  not 
only  bought  up  all  the  stock  offered  at  current 
rates,  and  contracted  for  all  prospective  sup- 
plies for  Chicago,  but  went  to  New  York  and 


PROVISIONS.  95 

bought  up  all  stock  offered,  and  all  options, 
also  went  into  European  markets,  and  bought 
back  their  own  stuff  that  had  been  shipped 
early  and  at  low  prices,  and  when  the  combi- 
nation had  secured  the  control  of  the  mar- 
kets, up  went  the  price  to  extraordinary  figures 
for  the  first  year  of  advances  in  hogs  and  pro- 
visions after  the  former  declines.  Chicago 
w^as  happy,  and  her  speculators  pocketed 
millions  of  money. 

This  Western  bull  campaign-in  provisions, 
with  its  lofty  Texian  horns  tossing  tlie  mar- 
kets to  such  dizzy  heights  as  it  did  in  1878^ 
could  not  have  been  successful,  with  all  its 
financial  strength,  in  any  of  the  3^ears  of  de- 
cline in  the  price  of  hogs. 

The  speculators  who  ma}^  attempt  in  1876 
or  1877  to  bull  the  provision  markets,  can  no 
more  thrive  and  prosper  than  can  swamp 
fever  live  on  .the  lofty  peaks  of  Chimborazo. 
And  if  this  speculation  be  undertaken  in 
these  years,  these  Western  operators  will  real- 
ize that  they  are  mistaken,  and  will  be 
slaughtered  in  this  business  as  surely  as  were 
the  deluded  Hindo  pilgrims  mistaken  in  the 
means  of  salvation,  and  uselessly  slaughtered 
when  casting  themselves  between  the  v/heels 
of  the  car  of  Juggernaut. 


06  benner's  prophecies. 

PANIC. 

Panics  in  the  commercial  and  financial 
world  have  been  compared  to  comets  in  the 
astronomical  world.  It  has  been  said  of  com- 
ets that  they  have  no  regularity  of  move- 
ment, no  cycles,  and  that  their  movements 
are  beyond  the  domain  of  astronomical 
science  to  find  out. 

It  has  been  admitted  by  astronomers  that 
the  comet  of  1874,  named  Coggia,  was  a  new 
comet  and  a  stranger;  one  that  has  not  vis- 
ited this  part  of  the  universe  before  within 
the  history  of  mankind.  However  that  may 
be,  the  writer  claims  that  Commercial  Revul- 
sions  in  this  country,  which  are  attended  with 
financial  panics,  can  be  predicted  with  much 
certainty  ;  and  the  prediction  in  this  book,  of 
a  commercial  revulsion  and  financial  crisis 
in  1891  is  based  upon  the  inevitable  C3^cle 
which  is  ever  true  to  the  laws  of  trade,  as 
affected  and  ruled  by  the  operations  of  the 
laws  of  natural  causes. 

The*  panic  of  1873  was  a  commercial  revul- 
sion ;  our  paper  money  was  not  based  upon 
specie,  and  the  banks  only  suspended  cur- 
rency payments  for  a  time  in  this  crisis. 

As  it  is  not  in  the  nature  of  thin^irs  in  each 


PxVNic.  97 

succeeding  cycle  to  operate  in  the  same  time 
and  manner,  the  A^^iter  claims  that  the  ^'  signs 
of  the  times"  indicate  that  the  coming  pre- 
dicted disturbance  in  the  business  world  will 
be  not  only  an  agricultural,  maiiufactur- 
ing,  mining,  trading,  and  industrial  revul- 
sion, but  also  a  financial  catastrophe,  producing 
a  universal  suspension  of  specie  payments, 
and  the  closing  up  of  all  the  banks  in  this 
country. 

It  is  not  necessary  to  give  a  detailed  ac- 
count of  the  effects  of  disorderly  banking  in; 
our  colonial  and  revolutionary  history,  and 
the  different  panics  prior  to  the  war  of  1812,. 
to  establish  cycles  in  commerce  and  finance. 

Such  a  history  would  fill  many  pages  with- 
out answering  the  purpose  of  this  book,  aiid; 
would  be  as  intricate  and  difficult  to  under- 
stand as  the  prices  of  stocks  and  gold  in  Wall 
Street,  as  the  eternal  fitness  of  things  at  that 
time  were  on  trial,  and  necessarily  unsettled, 
so  far  as  man  could  understand. 

The  war  of  1812  was  the  period  in  the  his- 
tory of  the  United  States  of  America  when 
it  was  deemed  a  necessity  for  this  country  to 
become  a  manufacturing  nation,  as  a  balance 
wheel  to  maintain  the  prosperity  of  agricul- 
ture and  commerce,  and  also  to  declare  her  in- 
7 


.98  bexner's  prophecies. 

dependence  forever  from  any  nation  upon  the 
earth.  -♦ 

It  is  a  doleful  commentary  upon  the  times 
that  such  calamities  in  the  history  of  our 
country,  as  hereafter  mentioned,  should  have 
occurred  amidst  a  profusion  of  all  the  ele- 
ments of  wealth,  prosperity  in  trades  and 
manufactures,  and  independence  in  the  arts 
and -sciences. 

It  will  only  be  necessary  for  the  purposes 
of  this  book  to  state  that  the  business  of  this 
country  before,  during,  and  after  the  war  of 
1812  had  culminated  in  the  year  1819,  as 
commercial  hi^^tory  will  show;  and  that  a  re- 
action in  business  followed  this  year,  the  be- 
ginning year  in  our  cycles  of  commerce  and 
panic. 

However,  we  deem  it  important  to  notice 
at  this  period  the  operations  of  banking  in 
brief  as  a  good  criterion  of  the  prosperity  and 
adversity  in  general  business,  and  the  fluctu- 
ations in  the  activity  of  industr}'-  and  com- 
merce. 

In  the  Report  of  Finances  for  1854,  ^55,  it  is 
stated  that  from  the  adoption  of  the  Federal 
Constitution  in  1787  to  the  year  1798,  no  peo- 
ple enjoyed  more  happiness  or  prosperity  than 
the  people  of  the  United  States,  nor  did  any 


VA  uc.  99 

country  ever  flourish  more  within  that  space 
of  time.  During  all  this  time,  and  up  to  the 
year  1800,  coin  constituted  the  bulk  of  the 
cil'culation ;  after  this  year  the  banks  came, 
and  all  things  became  changed  ;  like  the  upas 
tree,  they  have  withered  and  impaired  the 
healthful  condition  of  the  country,  destroyed 
the  credit  and  confidence  which  men  had  in 
one  another,  and  inflicted  on  the  people  polit- 
ical and  pecuniary  diseases  of  the  most  deadly 
character. 

The  bank-note  circulation  began  to  exceed 
the  total  specie  in  the  country  in  the  years 
1815,  '16,  and  '17,  and  in  the  year  1818,  the 
bank  mania  had  reached  its  height :  more 
than  two  hundred  new  banks  were  projected 
in  various  parts  of  the  Union.  The  united 
issues  of  the  United  States  Bank^  and  of  the 
local  banks,  drove  specie  from  the  country  in 
large  quantities,  and  in  the  year  1819,  when, 
the  culmination  in  general  business  had  been 
reached,  and  contraction  of  the  currency  be- 
gan to  be  felt,  multitudes  of  banks  and  indi- 
viduals were  broken.  The  panic  producing  a 
disastrous  revulsion  in  trade,  caused  the  fail- 
ure of  niile-tenths  of  all  the  merchants  in 
this  country  and  others  engaged  in  business, 
and  spread  ruin  far  and  wide  over  the  land 


100 

Two-thirds  of  the  real  estate  passed  from  the 
hands  of  the  owners  to  their  creditors.  Vol- 
umes would  be  required  to  portray  the  horrors 
and  sufferings  produced  by  this  general  con> 
mercial  and  financial  revulsion  in  business 
and  trade. 

A  banker,  in  a  letter  to  the  Secretary  of 
State,  in  1830,  describes  the  times  as  follows: 
*'  The  disasters  of  1819  which  seriously  affected 
the  circumstances,  property,  and  industry 
of  every  district  of  the  United  States  will  be 
long  recollected. 

"  A  sudden  and  pressing  scarcity  of  money 
prevailed  in  the  spring  of  1822;  numerous  and 
very  extensive  failures  took  place  in  1825  j 
there  was  great  revulsion  among  the  banks 
and  other  monied  institutions  in  1826.  The 
scarcity  of  money  among  the  trades  in  1827 
was  disastrous  and  alarming;  1828  was  char- 
acterized by  failures  among  the  manufactures 
and  trades  in  all  branches  of  business.  La- 
mentable and  rapid  succession  of  evil,  and 
untoward  events  prejudicial  to  the  progress  of 
productive  industry,  and  causing  a  baneful 
extension  of  embarrassment,  insolvency,  liti- 
gation, and  dishonest}^,  alike  subversive  of 
Bocial  happiness  and  morals. 

"Every  intelligent  mind  must  express  regret 


and  astonishment  at  the  occurrence  of  these 
disasters  in  tranquil  times  and  bountiful  sea- 
sons, amongst  enlightened,  enterprising,  and 
industrious  people,  comparatively  free  from 
taxation,  unrestrained  in  pursuits,  possessing 
abundance  of  fertile  lands  and  valuable  min- 
erals, with  capital  and  capacity  to  improve, 
and  an  ardent  disposition  to  avail  themselves 
of  the  advantages   of  these   great  bounties." 

After  the  year  1828  business  continued  to 
be  depressed,  vibrating  according  to  circum- 
etances  until  1834,  a  year  of  extreme  dullness 
in  all  branches  of  trade  ;  after  which  our  stock 
of  precious  metals  increased  very  fast,  busi- 
ness revived,  and  in  the  year  1835  and  '36^ 
the  imports  of  gold  and  silver  increased  to  an 
enormous  extent ;  as  the  banks  increased  their 
reserves  of  specie,  they  also  correspondingly 
issued  bank  notes — each  increased  issue  of 
paper  money  led  to  the  establishment  of  new 
banks. 

The  State  banks  that  had  numbered  in 
1830  only  three  hundred  and  twenty-nine,  with 
a  capital  of  one  hundred  and  ten  millions, 
increased,  according  to  the  treasury  report,  by 
the  first  of  January,  1837,  to  six  hundred  and 
twenty-four,  or,  including  branches,  to  seven 


X02i  ':'  I  /  I  '^B'ENNW&'iRrOrHECIES. 

hundred  and  eighty-eight,  with  a  capital  paid 
in  of  two  hundred  and  ninety  millions. 

Mark  the  result !  and  cuhnination ! !  a 
panic!  1!  in  the  month  of  May,  1837,  and 
suspenrion  of  specie  payments  by  all  the 
hankSy  and  a  general  commercial  revulsion 
throaghout  the  country,  involving  the  fortunes 
of  mercjhants,  manufacturers,  and  all  classes 
enc^gec^  in  trade,  in  consequence  of  a  ruinous 
fall  in  prices.  This  year  of  reaction  makes 
the  seond  year  in  our  panic  cycles,  and  is 
eighteen  years  from  1819. 

It  is  not  necessary  to  go  over  almost  the 
same  1  istory  again  to  sho^y  that  business 
was  dej)ressed,  and  trade  was  stagnant  after 
1837  down  to  the  year  1843,  and  then  up  and 
down  to  the  year  1850,  a  year  of  extreme 
dullness  in  all  branches  of  trade  and  industry, 
after  which  year  a  change  came,  and  business 
was  again  prosperous  to  the  year  1857,  when 
w^e  again  experienced  a  commercial  and  finan- 
cial crisis  and  reaction,  not  only  in  this  country 
but  all  over  the  world,  making  the  third  year 
in  our  cycles,  and  twenty  years  from  1837. 

History  repeats  itself  with  marvelous  accu- 
racy in  detail  from  one  panic  year  to  another. 
The  general  direction  of  business  after  the 
panic   of  1857  was  on  the   same   downward 


PANIC.  103 

grade  that  had  characterized  the  times  after 
the  panics  of  1819  and  1837,  until  all  business 
had  culminated  in  depression  in  the  year 
1861,  after  which  trade  again  improved,  and 
was  very  active  during  the  war  of  rebellion  and 
up  to  the  year  18G5,  when  a  temporary  reac- 
tion set  in ;  and,  reader,  let  me  observe  here, 
that  if  then  had  been  the  time  for  a  commer- 
cial revulsion  and  panic  in  money,  the  catas- 
trophe would  have  been  the  most  deplorable 
national  calamity  upon  record.  However,  the 
cycle  w^as  not  then  complete,  and  the  com- 
merce and  trade  of  the  country  continued  to 
be  serai-prosperous  until  1870,  after  which 
year  commercial  activity  was  the  order  of  the 
day,  all  branches  of  business  and  manufacture 
flourished  and  was  prosperous;  our  railroad 
building  was  astonishing  in  the  world  in  the 
years  1871,  '72;  but  the  end  must  come,  and  in 
September,  1873,  we  had  the  culmination— a 
crushing  panic,  and  reaction  in  all  trades, 
manufactures,  railroads,  and  industries,  which 
is  still  going  on,  and  we  have  not  yet  reached 
hard  pan. 

These  are  facts  of  late  history,  and  are  so 
fresh  in  the  recollection  of  the  mind  of  the 
reader,  that  it  is  only  necessary  to  refer  to 
them.      The  panic  of  1873  makes  the  fourth 


104  benner's  prophecies. 

year  in  our  panic  cycles,  and  sixteen  years 
from  1857. 

As  to  whether  it  is  the  paper  money  or  the 
manufacturing  and  trading  industries  of  the 
country,  which  call  out  and  into  use  the  pa- 
per money  that  produce  these  periodical  in- 
flations and  contractions,  by  which  trade  is 
stimulated  and  deranged,  and  extremes  in 
business  activity  is  brought  about,  is  a  mat- 
ter for  the  statesman  and  historian  to  ascer- 
tain and  record ;  it  is  only  sufficient  for  our 
present  purpose  to  point  out  the  panic  years, 
and  to  show  that  the  preceding  years  were 
prosperous  and  profitable  years  in  trade; 
while  the  succeeding  years,  for  a  certain 
length  of  time,  were  years  of  depression  and 
loss  in  business;  and  we  observe  that  since 
the  business  of  the  country  has  abandoned 
specie  as  a  currency,  and  adopted  paper 
money  in  lieu  thereof,  the  manufacturing 
interests  have  attained  larger  proportions, 
and  that  there  are  more  regularity  and  system 
in  the  return  of  the  advance  and  decline  in 
general  business,  and  that  the  culminating 
years  in  activity  and  depression  can  be  calcu- 
lated and  ascertained  with  greater  certainty. 

Tlie  CYCLES  in  panics  with  the  cycles  of 
PIG-IRON  in  the  same  scale. 


^ 


PANIC. 


105 


106  benner's  prophecies. 

The  panics  of  1819,  '37,  '57,  and  '73,  during 
this  period  of  years,  stand  out  upon  the  pagog 
of  the  history  of  this  country  in  their  magni- 
tude compared  with  other  panics,  as  the  planet 
Jupiter  compares  with  the  lesser  planets  in 
our  solar  system. 

Commencing  with  the  commercial  revulsion 
of  1819,  we  find  it  was  eighteen  years  to  the 
crisis  of  1837;  twenty  years  to  the  crisis  of 
1857;  and  sixteen  years  to  the  crisis  of  1873 — 
making  the  order  of  cycles  sixteen,  eighteen, 
and  twenty  years  and  repeat.  The  cycle  of 
twenty  years  was  completed  in  1857,  and  the 
cycle  of  sixteen  years  ending  in  1873,  was  the 
commencement  of  the  repetition  of  the  same 
order.  It  takes  panics  fifty-four  years  in  their 
order  to  make  a  revolution,  or  to  return  in  the 
same  order ;  the  present  cycle  consisting  of 
eighteen  years  will  end  in  1891,  when  the  next 
panic  will  hurst  upon  us  with  all  its  train  of 
woes. 

Returning  to  the  hottom  of  the  scale,  there 
we  find  the  years  of  poor  trade  and  hard 
times;  between  panic  years  in  the  scale  there 
are  two  low  points,  indicating  two  different 
times  of  depression  in  the  iron  business  ;  these 
low  points  indicate  the  hard  pan  years  in  gen^ 
eral  business.     Confidence  after  these  years, 


PANIC.  107 

especially  after  the  latter,  exercises  its  empire 
and  casts  overboard  the  incubus  that  has 
weighed  down  enterprise  and  energy;  these 
years  are  the  ending  of  the  declines,  the  begin- 
ning of  better  prices  and  more  prosperous 
times.  The  year  1877  is  the  next  low  point 
jn  our  scale  for  price  of  pig-iron.  This  year 
will  be  a  dull  and  unprofitable  year  for  the 
iron  trade,  and  also  for  general  business. 

The  next  high  point  will  be  1881,  a  prosper- 
ous year  for  the  iron  business.  However,  in 
tlie  year  1882,  and  the  six  succeeding  years 
running  to  1888,  like  the  years  after  1854  and 
1864,  we  may  look  for  squalls  in  the  money 
market,  blue-Mondays,  black-Fridays,  and  tor- 
nadoes in  banking,  and  the  first  financial  flury 
under  the  coming  specie  basis,  which  will 
have  to  rest  upon  a  confidence  artificially 
created  and  artificially  supported,  unless  the 
currency  is  contracted  to  that  minimum  Avhich 
would  prostrate  the  industries  of  the  country, 
paralyze  the  life  and  energy  of  our  people,  and 
produce  convulsions  and  depressions  only 
equaled  in  the  years  succeeding  1819,  '37,  and 
'57,  filling  up  the  pages  of  history  with  com- 
mercial and  financial  disasters,  as  they  were 
filled  up  to  1834  and  1850.  After  the  year 
1888  the  price  of  pig-iron  will  advance,  all 


108  benner's  prophecies. 

business  will  be  prosperous,  corn  and  hogs 
will  be  on  the  advance,  agriculture  and  manu- 
facture will  be  active,  all  trades  and  industries 
will  make  money  up  to  the  year  1891.  when 
we  predict  a  panic  which  will  not  be  confined 
to  the  United  States,  or  this  continent,  but 
will  sweep  over  the  world  like  the  panics  of 
1819  and  1857,  and  will  be  felt  with  equal 
severity  in  other  countries. 

Since  1819,  panics  burst  upon  us  after  the 
price  of  pig-iron  had  commenced  to  decline, 
and  therefore  it  is  not  chargeable  to  a  general 
panic  as  the  direct  cause  of  the  price  of  iron 
taking  the  descending  scale;  the  price  declines 
without  a  general  panic,  (see  scale  after  1845, 
and  '64,)  and  the  same  will  be  the  case  in  1881. 
In  1891,  the  commencement  of  the  decline  in 
the  price  of  pig-iron  will  precede  the  panic  of 
September  or  October  of  that  year. 

The  writor  claims  that  the  iron  trade  is  the 
chief  and  ruling  industry  in  this  country,  if 
not  in  the  world.  Iron  is  the  most  useful  of 
all  metals,  in  fact  the  bone  and  sinew  of  our 
civilization,  and  the  most  important  element 
of  progress,  as  seen  in  the  sewing  machine, 
reaper  and  mower,  spinning-jenny,  power 
loom,  steamboat,  railroad,  land  and  submarine 
telegraph.     And  as  the  iron  industry  raises  or 


PANIC.  109 

falls  in  the  scale  of  prosperity,  so  does  the 
general  business  of  the  country.  Pig-iron  is 
our  north  star  to  guide  us  over  the  dangerous 
roads  of  commerce.  It  is  the  barometer  of 
trade,  and  as  the  sudden  falling  of  the  mer- 
cury denotes  violent  changes  in  the  atmos- 
pherical world,  so  does  the  periodical  decline 
in  the  price  of  pig-iron  indicate  panic,  depres- 
sion, and  general  stagnation  in  business. 

The  United  States  of  America  will  in  the 
future  surpass  all  the  world  besides,  in  the 
production  of  pig-iron  and  in  the  manufacture 
of  its  products;  and  if  this  trade  could  be  es- 
tablished upon  a  firm  basis,  and  the  labor 
employed  in  dull  times  until  it  has  accumu- 
lated capital,  with  the  ingenuity,  invention, 
and  skill  of  the  indomitable  Yankee  in  the 
complex  processes  of  its  manufacture,  with 
our  abundance  of  cheap  raw  material,  and  by 
the  aid  of  natural  gas  for  fuel  as  lately  and 
successfully  applied  at  Pittsburg,  a  thorough 
knowledge  of  the  ups  and  downs  of  prices  in 
the  markets  and  cycles  of  good  and  bad  trade, 
this  industry  in  this  country  in  its  colossal 
proportions,  would  in  a  short  time,  defy  the 
world's  competition,  give  us  better  and 
cheaper  iron;  give  more  steadiness  to  prices, 


110  benner's  prophecies. 

and  greatly  mitigate  the  consequences  of  peri- 
odical crises  and  depressions. 

The  highest  and  lowest  prices  in  the  C3^cle8 
of  high  and  low  priced  years  for  iron  are  in  a 
progressive  order,  as  reported  in  the  monthlj? 
price  tables  of  the  Iron  and  Steel  Association. 
The  high  prices  commencing  in  January,  1837, 
going  over  to  May  in  1845,  to  June  in  1851,  to 
August  in  1864,  and  to  September  in  1872. 
The  low  prices,  commencing  in  April,  1834, 
reaching  to  July  in  1843,  to  July  in  1850,  to 
October  in  1861,  and  December  in  1870;  show- 
ing that  each  cycle  extends  a  fraction  over  the 
required  years.  The  low  prices  for  1877  will 
run  into  January  of  1878. 

The  panic  of  1819  began  early  in  the  year, 
and  that  of  1837  in  May,  and  of  1857  in  Sep- 
tember, and  of  1873  in  September.  The  price 
of  pig-iron  in  1881  will  not  reach  the  maxi- 
mum until  September;  after  that  month  it 
will  begin  to  decline.  The  price  of  pig-iron 
in  1891  will  not  begin  to  decline  before  Sep- 
tember, as  the  panic  w^ill  not  appear  before 
that  month  in  that  year. 

Astronomy  tells  us  that  eclipses  return  in 
the  same  order  every  eighteen  years.  Every 
eclipse  within  this  period  of  eighteen  years 
belongs  to  a  separate  series  of  eclipses;  that  is, 


PANIC.  Ill 

there  is  but  one  eclipse  during  the  eighteen 
years  which  belong  to  the  same  series.  This 
periodical  return  was  discovered  by  the  an- 
cients, and  by  this  rule  they  w^ere  able  to  fore- 
tell the  appearance  of  many  of  the  eclipses 
years  in  advance;  and  by  close  observation 
through  many  centuries,  astronomers  at  this 
day  can  foretell  the  exact  hour  and  minute  of 
the  appearance  of  any  or  all  the  eclipses. 
Other  cycles  of  motion  in  the  heavens  vary  in 
their  particular  order  of  series.  Science  will 
yet  show  that  there  is  a  reality  in  the  connec- 
tion between  human  events  and  the  operations 
of  nature;  the  causes  and  the  laws  by  w^hich 
they  operate  we  are  now  ignorant  of. 

The  cj^cles  in  panics  and  ups  and  downs  in 
prices  of  agricultural  and  manufactured  arti- 
cles are  but  the  effects  of  a  cause,  which  is 
manifested  in  periods  of  sixteen,  eighteen  and 
twenty  years  in  panics;  that  return  in  the  same 
order  every  fifty-four  years,  in  periods  of  eight, 
nine,  and  ten  years  in  the  price  of  pig-iron; 
which  return  in  the  same  order  every  twenty- 
seven  years,  and  down  to  five  and  six  years  in 
the-  price  of  corn  and  hogs;  which  return  in 
the  same  order  every  eleven  years;  and  by  a 
series  of  observation  in  the  future,  the  particu- 
lar month  and  day  could  be  ascertained  when 


112  benner's  prophecies. 

these  changes  in  the  ups  and  downs  in  prices 
will  occur.  When  once  these  cycles  are  de- 
fined, ascertained,  and  calculated  upon  to  a 
month  and  day,  by  a  careful  compilation  of 
prices  in  each  cycle,  and  the  natural  causes 
producing  them  discovered  and  verified,  then 
their  return  can  be  calculated  to  continue  in 
that  exact  order  as  long  as  other  cycles  in  mo- 
tion ;  as  they  are  the  effects  of  other  motions, 
and  will  return  with  as  much  certainty  and 
astronomical  exactness,  as  the  return  of  the 
eclipses  of  the  sun  and  moon ;  and  it  does  not  re- 
quire a  belief  in  the  fabulous  to  have  faith  in 
their  periodical  appearance.  These  cycles  in  the 
operations  of  cause  and  effect  have  always  ex- 
isted. Tiiere  has  been  no  confusion.  Man  has 
been  continually  making  discoveries  of  the 
manner  in  which  the  laws  of  nature  operate. 

In  my  predictions  I  stated  that  1876  and  "77, 
would  be  years  of  great  depression  in  general 
business,  and  that  there  would  be  many  fail- 
ures in  these  years ;  they  will  come  at  the  end 
of  the  five  years'  decline  in  the  price  of  pig- 
iron  ;  and  it  does  not  require  a  gift  of  prophecy 
to  foretell  many  failures  in  all  of  these  years. 

The  "  signs  of  the  times  ''  can  be  calculated 
by  comparing  1876  and  1877  with  other  years 
after  commercial  panics,  and  the  fall  in  the 


PANIC.  113 

price  of  pig-iron — for  instance,  1842,  '43,  and 
1860,  '61 — and  the  state  of  business  preceding 
these  years,  remembering  that  1876  is  presi- 
dential year,  and  that  presidential  years  like 
1820,  1840,  and  1860,  immediately  succeeding 
commercial  revulsions,  are  years  of  depression 
in  business,  the  uncertainty  of  the*  times  and 
of  future  legislation  clogs  the  wheels  of 
commerce  and  stops  business.  "Hard  times" 
and  "dull  trade"  are  surely  upon  us  for  the 
next  two  years.  The  working  man  who  de- 
pends upon  his  labor  for  his  living,  espec- 
ially they  who  are  engaged  in  the  iron  trade-, 
surely  have  a  dreary  prospect — compelled  by 
low  wages  to  practice  the  most  rigid  economy 
in  the  necessaries  of  life,  in  the  use  of  bad 
flour,  black  molasses,  pressed  shoulders,  and 
store  pay.  And  in  the  depression  of  the  agri- 
cultural, manufacturing,  and  industrial  inter- 
ests, as  they  will  be  depressed  all  over  the 
land  in  the  next  two  years,  the  sting  of  hard 
times  will  come  to  every  man's  home. 

In  all  these  years  of  reaction  and  depression 
in  general  business.  Providence  works  upon 
the  minds  of  men,  as  witnessed  at  the  present 
time  by  the  religious  excitement  in  the  East, 
created  by  the  evangelists  Moody  and  Sankey, 
aa  instruments  in  the  hands  of  God  to  start  iu 


114  BEXXER'S   PROPHECIES. 

•motion  a  religious  wave  that  will  in  the  next 
two  years  sweep  over  the  entire  western 
country. — Men  in  time  of  trouble  put  more 
trust  in  God,  and  are  inclined  to  more  thought- 
fulness. 

The  writer  stated  in  his  predictions  that 
notwithstanding  the  resumption  of  specie 
payment^,  the  price  of  iron  and  hogs  will  be 
higher  in  1879  than  in  1878.  The  price  of 
iron  and  hogs  will  have  already  suffered  a 
diminution  in  premium  and  price  in  their 
low  priced  year  1877.  It  is  natural  for  jDrices 
to  advance  in  1878,  1879,  and  1880,  and  no 
legislative  act  can  prevent  it.  The  return  to 
sjjecie  payments  will  give  confidence  in  busi- 
ness and  stability  to  trade. 

Congress  made  a  mistake  in  not  fixing 
January  1,  1878,  as  the  time  for  the  resump- 
tion of  specie  payments;  this  delay  will  cause 
the  government  and  people  to  lose  twelve 
months  of  recuperative  strength  in  the  great 
commercial  and  financial  battle  of  1891. 

January  1,  1878,  is  the  time  when  all  need- 
ful and  necessary  contraction  of  the  currency 
for  a  specie  basis  will  be  in  conformity  with 
the  universal  contraction  of  business,  which 
will  have  been  going  on  ever  since  the  re- 
vulsion of  1873,  and  when  general  depression 


PANIC.  115 

will  have  reached  the  very  bottom  of  hard 
pan,  and  when  the  times  will  demand  that 
contraction  in  trade  and  currency  must  cease, 
and  the  ending  of  the  cycle  in  low  prices  for 
pig-iron,  the  great  jupiter  of  trade. 

The  combined  interests  of  the  people  will 
demand  that  this  incubus  and  scare-crow  upon 
industry  and  trade  be  confined  to  the  shortest 
period  consistent  with  the  times,  and  that 
there  be  no  contraction  after  the  year  1877. 
Agriculture,  manufacture,  mining,  commerce, 
finance,  and  the  cycles  of  high  heaven  demand 
it ;  to  restore  business  confidence ;  to  relieve 
general  distress,  and  to  repair  national  and 
individual  disaster. 

Commercial  panic  is  the  reaction  from  over 
trading  and  over  expansion  of  credit  and  con- 
fidence, an  excess  of  commerce  and  finance. 
Political  economy  abounds  in  theories  to  ex- 
plain the  cause  of  panics.  It  is  not  necessary 
to  look  about  for  a  cause;  commercial  and 
financial  revulsions  are  the  consequences  of 
many  causes. 

When  the  price  of  iron  begins  to  decline 
there  is  a  panic  in  iron.  When  the  price  of 
liogs  commence  to  decline  there  is  a  panic  in 
hogs.  When  the  price  of  cotton,  wool,  wheat, 
or  any  product  begins  to  fall,  there  is  a  panic 


116  benner's  prophecies. 

in  that  particular  article;  the  supply  exceeds 
the  demand.  Prosperity  in  the  aggregate 
creates  general  confidence,  and  expands  credit, 
and  this  swells  the  prosperity,  increases  the 
demand  for  money,  inducing  hanks  to  extend 
their  issues  and  loans  to  the  utmost,  until  the 
climax  is  reached;  then  comes  the  panic,  the 
inevitable  crisis  and  reaction  ;  the  pressure 
to  realize  produces  a  decline  in  prices;  confi- 
dence is  lost,  capital,  ever  sensitive,  with- 
draws ;  a  run  commences  on  the  banks,  ending 
in  financial  and  commercial  disaster. 

Commercial  revulsions  are  governed  by  a 
law  beyond  the  control  of  man,  and  are  con- 
fined to  no  creed,  party,  or  politics. 

The  panic  of  1819  was  in  Monroe's  admin- 
istration; that  of  1837  in  Martin  Van  Buren's; 
of  1857  in  James  Buchanan's ;  and  of  1873  in 
U.  S.  Grant's. 

No  governmental  or  congressional  subsidies ; 
no  legislative  enactments,  tarifts,  or  currencies; 
no  financial  syndicates,  convertible  or  inter- 
changeable bonds ;  no  bribery  of  legislators  or 
betrayal  of  constituents  can  arrest  or  change 
their  course. 

When  the  period  arrives  for  a  panic,  any 
breeze  or  signal,  no  matter  what  reverses  the 
engine,  the  times  take  the  downward  grade, 


PANIC.  iP 

and  there  is    no  general  recovery  until  we 
hev.v  pig-iron  demanding 

"Watchman!  what  of  the  Night?" 

This  ideal  will  have  been  standing  out 
upon  the  dome  of  the  weather-beaten  tower  of 
time,  gazing  into  the  dim  vista  of  the  future, 
for  five  long  years  of  disaster  and  ruin,  wait- 
ing for  the  period  foreseen  and  predicted, 
when  the  glimmer  of  the  year  1878  can  be 
discerned  in  the  eastern  horizon,  not  a  mete- 
oric flash  which  illumes  the  night  with  a 
transient  and  uncertain  glow;  but  the  con- 
tinued morning  radiance,  which  is  the  fore- 
runner of  the  full  light  and  glory  of  a  bright 
noon-day— will  then  exclaim  AROUSE,  PIG- 
IRON  !  monarch  of  business  !  come  forth  from 
the  chambers  of  thy  slumbering  silence,  the 
dawn  of  a  new  era  is  at  hand  !  hogs,  corn,  and 
cotton  fall  into  line,  and  start  in  motion  the 
wheels  of  commerce,  industry,  and  trade  ! 

The  resumption  of  trade  and  industry  in 
the  year  1878  must  go  on ;  the  Gibraltar  of 
hard  times  Avill  be  passed  in  1877;  the  mills 
and  furnaces  will  start  up;  the  price  of  pig» 
iron,  hogs,  corn,  and  provisions  will  be  on 
the  advance.  Agriculture,  manufacture,  min- 
ing,  commerce,  and    finance,  will  begin    to 


118  benker's  prophecies. 

prosper ;  the  industries  of  all  this  country  will 
be  born  of  new  life,  and  with  our  finances 
upon  a  sound  basis,  and  a  stop  put  to  the 
enormous  importation  of  foreign  goods,  that 
we  can  manufacture  ourselves,  which  will 
give  us  the  balance  of  trade,  and  enable  us  to 
keep  our  gold  at  home,  and  a  general  knowl- 
edge among  the  people  of  the  duration  of  the 
ups  and  downs  in  prices,  and  when  we  may 
expect  the  return  of  commercial  panics — this 
country  with  its  forty  millions  of  population, 
sevent}^  thousand  miles  of  railway,  and  two 
hundred  millions  of  acres  of  cultivated  land, 
will  prosper  and  advance  beyond  any  nation 
which  has  appeared  in  all  ages  of  the  world, 
and  the  chronicles  of  its  future  history,  if 
well  written,  will  rival  the  stories  of  oriental 
imagination. 

THEORY. 

We  have  had  to  hunt  down  Price  Cycles 
by  establishing  periodicity  in  high  and  low 
priced  years;  the  length  of  the  different 
periods  in  which  they  have  repeated  them- 
selves, and  by  indisputable  dates,  facts,  and 
figures,  demonstrating  their  regularity. 

The  cause  producing  the  periodicity  and 
length  of  these  cycles  may  be  found  in  our 


THEORY.  119 

solar  system.  The  writer  does  not  claim  a 
knowledge  of  the  causes  and  conditions  under 
which  they  occur,  and  the  reasons  why  they 
occur;  meteorological  scientists  have  been  labor- 
ing and  exploring  the  records  of  all  ages  to 
discover  a  Meteorological  Cycle — the  great  desid- 
eratum of  the  age. 

In  the  Elements  of  Meteorology,  by  Prof. 
John  H.  Tice,  of  St.  Louis,  Mo.,  published  in 
1875,  are  meteorological  cycles,  demonstrated 
and  verified  according  to  his  theory,  which  is 
that  Planetary  Equinoxes  are  the  causes  of  the 
disturbance  to  which  our  earth  and  atmos- 
phere is  periodically  subject. 

That  all  the  elements  of  disturbance  are 
physically  interwoven  with  and  inseparable 
from  the  planetary  system,  and  that  Jupiter 
at  his  equinoctial  points  suffers  physical  per- 
turbations both  in  his  body  and  atmosphere, 
probably  more  intense  than  the  disturbances 
at  our  equinoxes.  These  cause  similar  atmos- 
pherical and  physical  paroxysms  in  Jupiter, 
as  our  equinoctial  disturbances  do;  namely, 
electric  and  magnetic  storms  and  earthquakes 
in  the  body  of  the  planet ;  and  in  the  atmos- 
phere, violent  tornadoes  and  hurricanes,  ac- 
companied with  terrible  electric  explosions, 
heavy  rain-falls  and  hail  storms,   and  that 


120  benner's  prophecies. 

these  equinoctial  disturbances  in  Jupitei 
affect  the  sun,  and  through  the  sun  the  solar 
system.  The  result  upon  the  earth  and  its 
atmosphere  is  an  enormous  increase  of  elec- 
tric intensity.  Gives  the  equinoxes  of  Vul- 
can, Mercury,  Venus,  Earth,  Mars,  Jupiter, 
and  Saturn,  and  also  a  historical  record  of 
auroras,  sun-spots,  earthquakes,  magnetic  dis- 
turbances, cyclones,  rain-falls,  and.hail  storms, 
in  verification  of  his  cycle,  and  demonstrates 
that  Jupiter  is  the  cause  of  the  atmospheric, 
telluric,  and  solar  perturbations  that  occur 
once  and  in  a  modified  form  twice  in  every 
one  of  his  orbital  revolutions,  and  that  the 
maximum  disturbance  upon  the  earth  must 
occur  at  or  near  Jupiter's  equinox,  and  that 
the  energy  of  the  equinox  of  any  planet  is 
intensified  when  that  of  another  occurs  at  or 
about  the  same  time.  Fixes  11,86  years  aa 
the  length  of  the  Jupiter  year,  and  names  it 
the  Jovial  Cycle,  and  assumes  that  on  the 
following  years  in  this  century  have  occurred, 
and  will  occur,  the  Jovial  Major  Equinox  : 


1800.58 

1859.88 

1812.44 

1871.74 

1824.30 

1883.60 

18P.6.16 

1895.46 

1848.02 

THEORY.  121 

The  cycles  of  11  years  in  the  price  of  corn 
and  hogs,  27  years  in  the  price  of  pig-iron, 
and  54  years  in  general  business,  can  not  be 
accounted  for  upon  any  known  theory  in  the 
operations  of  trade.  Therefore  we  must  look 
elsewhere  for  a  cause  and  solution  of  the 
problem. 

The  fact  of  the  existence  of  these  cycles  is 
patent  to  any  close  observer,  and  as  to 
whether  any  hypothesis  or  theory  would  be 
of  practical  utility  when  not  a  demonstrated 
and  verified  truth,  is  for  the  reader  to  deter- 
mine. 

In  our  11  3^ear  cycles  commencing  in  1836, 
and  running  to  1847,  '58,  and  '69,  we  observe 
that  our  cycles  fall  behind  the  Jovial  C3T.le. 
We  have  not  the  daily  or  monthly  prices  for 
corn  and  hogs,  so  as  to  ascertain  if  there  are 
fractions  of  a  year  in  our  cycles;  if  there 
should  be,  they  would  bo  found  to  be  small. 
We  know  there  are  fractions  in  the  cycles  for 
I^ig-iron  extending  over  four  months  from 
1837  to  1845,  and  in  other  cycles  from  one  to 
two  months,  but  not  sufficient  fractions  ia 
any  cycle  within  the  past  forty  years,  and 
will  not  be  before  1891,  to  change  the  numben 
of  years  in  any  high  priced  year  cycle  of 
either  hogs  or  pig-iron. 


12i  BENNER  S   PROPHECIES. 

The  meteorological  cycle,  as  verified  by 
Prof.  Tice,  seems  to  be  well  demonstrated  by 
his  array  of  historical  facts. 

His  forecasts  of  the  weather  during  the 
year  1875  was  verified  with  surprising  accur- 
acy, and  we  have  no  doubt  that  his  theory  in 
regard  to  sun-spots,  earthquakes,  auroras,  and 
magnetic  disturbances  is  well  confirmed. 
However,  it  is  to  be  considered  that  other  ele- 
ments and  influences  may  operate  to  cause 
abundance  or  scarcity  in  stock  and  grain 
crops. 

Facts  are  the  data  of  all  just  reasoning,  and 
the  primary  elements  of  all  real  knowledge. 
The  fact  seems  to  be  philosophically  certain 
that  all  the  2:>lanets  which  compose  our  solar 
system  are  essential  to  that  system  :  the  sun 
to  the  planets,  the  planets  to  the  sun,  and  all 
to  each  other ;  and  when  certain  combina- 
tions are  ascertained  which  produce  one  legi- 
timate invariable  manifestation  from  an  an- 
alysis of  the  operations  of  the  combined  solar 
S3^stem,  then  we  may  be  enabled  to  discover 
the  cause  producing  our  price  cj^cles,  and  the 
length  of  their  duration. 

It  is  evident  from  our  showing  of  the  upa 
and  downs  in  prices,  and  the  high  and  low 
priced  years,  that  these  cycles  repeat  them- 


THEORY.  123 

selves  ill  definite  length;  and  without  deter- 
mining a  fixed  and  exciting  cause  for  their 
existence,  or  attempting  to  verify  theories  of 
which  we  are  distrustful,  we  will  risk  our 
reputation  as  a  prophet,  and  our  chances  for 
success  in  business  upon  our  11  year  C3^cle  in 
corn  and  hogs;  in  our  27  year  cycle  in  jjig- 
iron,  and  in  our  54  year  cycle  in  genera] 
trade,  upon  which  we  have  operated  with  suc- 
cess in  the  past. 

Modern  facilities  have  brought  the  ends  of 
the  earth  together,  and  nearly  obliterated  the 
cycles  in  famine  and  bread  riots,  but  in  turn 
have  developed  well  defined  cycles  in  prices. 
By  the  aid  of  steam  and  electricity,  a  de- 
ficiency in  one  part  of  the  earth  is  soon  sup- 
plied by  the  surplus  of  another ;  therefore, 
natural  productions  are  more  equalized  over 
the  country ;  and  as  the  average  aofgregate 
yearly  amount  is  regulated  by  productive  and 
unproductive  seasons,  prices  follow  nature 
more  closely  than  formerly,  and  their  cycles 
must  correspond  very  closely  with  meteoro- 
logical cycles. 

The  influence  of  the  sun-spot  period  upon 
production  and  prices,  has  formed  the  subject 
of  numerous  discussions  during  the  present 
century;  and  it  is  a  singular  fact  that  scien* 


124  benner's  prophecies. 

fcists  have  made  the  discovery  that  large  and 
small  crops  hav3  occurred  at  intervals  approx- 
imating to  eleven  years,  the  average  length  of 
the  sun-spot  period.  It  may  be  a  meteorologi- 
cal fact  that  Jupiter  is  the  ruling  element  in 
our  price  cycles  of  natural  productions;  while 
also  it  may  be  suggested  that  Saturn  exerts  an 
influence  regulating  the  cycles  in  manufac- 
ture and  trade. 

Herschel  and  Leverrier,  away  out  in  the 
regions  of  immensity,  beyond  the  range  of 
human  eyesight,  may  send  forth  an  electric 
influence  afl'ecting  Jupiter,  Saturn,  and,  in 
turn,  the  Earth.  Heathen  mythology  claimed 
that  Saturn  was  the  deity  who  presided  over 
time,  as  he  was  the  most  distant  planet  from 
the  earth  of  any  that  are  visible  to  the  naked 
eye,  and  requiring  twenty-nine  years  to  make 
a  revolution  around  the  sun.  Saturn  appears 
to  have  been  king  of  Crete,  in  whose  time  iron 
was  said  to  have  been  discovered  on  Mount 
Ida,  owing  to  a  fire  by  lightning  producing  a 
conflagration  in  the  woods.  Vulcan  wrought 
the  new  iron  mines  and  made  iron  imple- 
ments. Ancient  astrology  claimed  to  foretell 
future  events  by  the  motion  of  the  stars,  and 
in  this  they  were  not  far  wrong,  although  they 
were  not  regulated  in   their  predictions  by 


THEORY.  125 

cycles  in  motion,  but  by  certain  changes  in 
the  stars  at  certain  times,  aided  by  the  celestial 
globe,  and  approaches,  recessions,  and  aspects 
of  the  planets.  Ancient  astrology  is  now  being 
superceded  by  modern  science.  All  great 
events  and  convulsions  in  nature  are  now 
being  explained  and  accounted  for  upon  fixed 
physical  causes. 

The  deluge  of  Moses,  if  we  look  for  a  physi- 
cal cause,  can  be  found  in  the  precession  of 
the  equinoxes.  The  perihelion  having  a 
period  of  over  25,000  years,  crossed  the  equator 
when  the  translation  of  the  ocean  from  the 
northern  to  the  southern  hemisphere,  would 
necessarily  produce  wrecks  of  countries,  great 
physical  changes,  and  floods  upon  the  earth. 
For  all  history  concurs  in  describing  a  deluge, 
and  science  demands  its  recurrence  about 
every  12,000  years. 

CONCLUSION. 

In  view  of  the  immensity  of  the  interests 
involved,  and  the  magnitude  of  the  gains  or 
losses  incurred  in  the  advance  and  decline  of 
each  price  and  panic  cycle,  and  the  conse- 
quences of  the  effects  upon  all  business  and 
trade,  well  might  we  be  surprised  and  aston- 


126  benner's  prophecies. 

ished  at  the  opportunities  afforded  for  accumu- 
lation and  the  chances  for  disaster,  that  by 
rule  of  cycles  we  are  compelled  to  predict. 

Persons  who  undertake  to  search  for  coal 
outside  of  the  coal  fields,  to  mine  for  ore  out- 
side of  the  iron  region,  or  prospect  foi  any 
mineral  by  which  through  ignorance  of  the 
teachings  of  geology,  they  would  be  constantly 
led  to  squander  their  means  for  that  which 
they  can  not  find — could  be  compared  to  a 
person  who  undertakes  to  make  money  during 
the  decline  of  prices.  Failures  in  business  are 
caused  principally  by  our  ignorance  of  when 
the  ups  and  downs  in  prices  are  to  take  place. 
It  has  been  stated  that  in  the  city  of  Boston, 
in  a  series  of  fort}^  years  after  the  year  1800, 
that  only  five  in  one  hundred  men  remained 
in  business;  they  had  all  in  that  time  failed 
or  died  destitute  of  property.  It  has  been 
stated  and  ascertained  that  not  more  than  one 
per  cent  of  the  best  class  of  merchants  escape 
from  failing  in  Philadelphia,  and  that  not 
more  than  two  per  cent  of  the  merchants  of 
New  York  ultimately  retire  on  an  independ- 
ence during  periods  of  tv>'enty-five  and  thirty 
years.  In  Cincinnati,  out  of  a  list  of  some 
four  hundred  of  the  principal  business  men 
who  were  in  trade  in  that  city  at  a  certain 


CONCLQSION.  127 

period,  there  were  only  five  in  business  at  the 
end  of  twenty  years  from  that  date.  Such  is 
mercantile  success,  and  we  see  the  same  re- 
peated in  all  the  leading  and  different  branch- 
es  of  trade. 

As  compiled  by  Dunn,  Barlow  &  Co.,  of  New 
York  City,  for  the  year  1873,  throughout  the 
country  there  were  5,183  failures  of  business 
men,  with  liabilities  aggregating  to  $228,499- 
OQO ;  for  the  year  1874  there  were  5,830  failures, 
with  liabilities  of  $155,239,900;  and  the  indi- 
cations of  reports  for  1875,  are  that  the  fixilures 
will  number  as  many  as  in  the  former  years. 
The  greater  proportion  of  these  failures  were 
brought  about  by  losses  sustained  in  the 
shrinkage  of  values,  and  decline  of  prices  in 
each  price  and  panic  cycle.  The  people  seem 
ignorant  of  the  terrible  teachings  of  history, 
and  few  are  prepared  to  take  advantage  of 
these  turns  in  trade ;  and  the  great  majority, 
through  ignorance  of  the  time  when  the  ups 
u-nd  down  in  prices  are  to  take  place,  are 
caught  with  incomplete  enterprises  upon 
their  hands. 

It  is  noticed  that  the  great  majority  of  the 
business  men  of  broken  down  fortunes,  have 
become  so  not  by  accident,  but  by  dealing  too 
largely  when  prices  were  on  the  decline.     In 


128 


the  general  declines  of  business  after  the 
panics  of  1819,  '37,  '57,  and  '73,  the  loss  to  the 
nation  through  non-emploA-ment  of  labor  and 
in  various  ways,  is  estimated  to  aggregate  a 
sufficient  sum  in  each  of  these  reactions  to 
pay  our  na^aonal  debt.  George  Peabody  laid 
the  foundation  of  his  fortune  by  buying  Amer- 
ican securities  in  one  of  our  commercial 
depressions,  the  price  which,  taken  at  the 
advance,  led  him  on  to  competence. 

Reader,  if  you  are  young,  life  is  short.  You 
can  not  afford  to  make  any  mistakes,  or  miss 
any  opportunities.  You  must  take  the  tide 
at  the  advance.  You  can  not  wait  a  life  time 
for  the  results  of  your  experience;  you  must 
act  upon  what  others  know,  or  your  life  will 
be  spent  to  little  use  and  without  much  accu- 
mulation of  property.  The  cycles  of  pros- 
perity and  adversity  alternate  inside  of  every 
ten  years;  but  few  of  these  prosperous  decades 
are  yours  in  an  active  business  life  ;  therefore 
do  not  waste  your  strength,  or  impair  your 
energies  on  these  periodic  declines,  as  fore- 
shadowed in  the  future  by  the  bright  written 
pages  of  past  history. 

Barnum  has  well  said,  in  his  celebrated 
lecture  on  the  art  of  money  getting,  "  You  can 
not  accumulate  a  fortune  by  taking  the  road 


CONCLUSION.  129 

that  leads  to  poverty."  The  whole  history  of 
trade  and  commerce  is  full  with  the  records  of 
disaster,  which  has  been  brought  about  by  mis- 
takes of  men  who  could  not  read  the  letters 
upon  the  sign  posts;  while  on  the  other  hand 
our  libraries  are  crowded  with  the  chronology 
of  man's  success  in  business  and  trade,  by 
taking  the  price  and  times  at  the  advance, 
which  leads  on  to  fortune. 

Within  the  present  century  the  increase  of 
knowledge,  improvements  in  machinery,  and 
the  discoveries  in  the  arts  and  sciences,  have 
advanced  with  a  speed  unparalleled  in  the 
annals  of  history.  New  light  in  various  de- 
partments of  human  activity  is  now  rapidly 
and  continually  breaking  in  upon  the  world. 
The  invention  of  the  steamboat,  railroad,  and 
telegraph,  have  imparted  astonishing  lessons 
to  mankind.  Each  discovery  of  the  laws  of 
nature  unfolds  to  the  mind  of  man,  new  and 
exalting  evidences  of  the  wisdom  of  the  Crea- 
tor. Astronomers  who  attempt  to  explore  the 
immensity  of  the  starry  regions;  to  discover 
unseen  and  unknown  worlds,  and  to  find  out 
the  ways  of  God  in  the  wonders  of  the  heavens, 
are  not  in  this  enlightened  age  denounced  as 
false  philosophers  and  charged  with  an  im- 
pious invasion  of  the  domain  of  God.  Each 
9 


130  benner's  prophecies. 

•rising  science  has  fought  and  struggled  with 
superstition  and  ignorance ;  and  in  all  ages  no 
effort  has  been  spared  to  blast  them  in  the  bud 
of  their  being,  or  crush  them  in  the  cradle  of 
their  infancy. 

It  has  only  been  a  short  time  before  the 
present  century,  that  if  any  one  had  predicted 
the  crossing  of  the  ocean  in  a  vessel  driven  by 
steam,  or  of  conveying  news  by  electric  agency 
around  the  earth,  over  the  land  and  under  the 
water  in  advance  of  time,  or  of  daguerreotyp- 
ing  the  human  face  on  a  metallic  plate  by  the 
light  of  the  sun,  and  then  chemically  fixing 
it  there;  or  of  forecasting  the  future  of  the 
weather;  production  and  prices  by  the  rule  of 
C3^cles  as  regulated  by  providence;  such  per- 
sons would  have  been  considered  visionary, 
their  predictions  regarded  as  contemptibly 
absurd;  their  authors  the  most  disingenious 
of  men,  and  their  theories  and  systems  treated 
with  persecution  and  ridicule. 

The  day  is  past  for  men  to  be  forced  to  drink 
the  juice  of  the  hemlock  for  having  peculiar 
notions  of  Deity,  and  sent  in  chains  to  the 
gallows,  or  imprisoned  in  gloomy  dungeons 
for  announcing  scientific  discoveries.  Galileo 
was  condemned  by  the  inquisition  of  Rome  for 
teach  ins;  the  doctrine  of  the  earth's  revel  u- 


CONCLUSION.  131 

fcions.      Galileo   was   right,   and    the   world 
moves. 

Science  has  many  things  to  achieve  in  agri- 
culture, manufacture,  mining,  and  commerce. 
The  science  of  price  cycles  is  yet  in  the  cradle 
of  its  infancy,  but  waiting  its  time  to  mature 
full  development,  to  unfold  its  principles,  and 
declare  its  oracles  to  all  mankind,  and  to 
demonstrate  that  the  causes  and  the  laws  of 
nature  in  production  are  not  past  finding  out ; 
and  that  man  in  his  onward  path  of  progress, 
with  the  aid  of  electric  science,  will  ulti- 
mately grasp  the  future,  and  make  plain  all 
the  ways  of  God;  which,  when  accomplished 
in  this  world,  will  be  the  acme  of  human 
knowledge,  the  consummation  of  human  per- 
fection, and  the  end  of  human  destiny. 


ADDENDA,  1884. 


To  comply  with  an  urgent  deraand  from 
many  business  men  for  a  new  edition  of  these 
Prophecies,  with  tables  brought  down  to  date, 
the  author  has  consented  to  make  some  addi- 
tions, and  add  a  chapter  on  Eailroad  Stocks. 
The  old  edition  is  left  as  it  was  originally  pub- 
lished in  1876. 

While  it  has  been  an  accepted  saying,  that 
history  repeats  itself,  it  has  never  been  at- 
tempted heretofore  to  show  how,  and  say  when, 
it  was  systematically  done,  so  as  to  extend  it 
into  the  future — until  the  writer,  in  1876,  intro- 
duced to  the  public  this  little  book,  showing, by 
cycles  made  in  the  ups  and  downs  in  prices  and 
ill  general  business,  how  and  when  the  times 
would  repeat  themselves  in  the  future,  which  by 
the  tept  of  the  past  eight  years,  is  pronounced, 
by  intelligent  and  thinking  business  men,  to  be 
one  of  the  most  remarkable  commercial  discov- 
eries of  this  country. 

This  book  has  been  read  by  many  able  men^ 
and  they  are  puzzled  at  the  results,  as  showing 
powerfully   what  they  did  not  believe  existed, 


ADDENDA,  1884.  133 

and  so  at  variance  with  received  opinions,  they 
seem  willing,  from  choice,  to  disbelieve  it,  if  it 
were  possible,  but  seeing  the  predictions  and  re- 
petitions justified  by  events,  are  disposed  to  give 
the  author  great  glory. 

The  discovery  of  this  so-called  law  of  repeti- 
tion, pertaining  to  business  life,  one  would  say 
can  not  be,  for  how  the  times  change  from  war 
and  other  causes.  The  answer  is :  that  the  law 
has  acted  for  fifty  years,  or  as  long  as  we  have 
had  any  reliable  statistics  to  test  it;  and  this  ac- 
tion has  been  going  on  through  the  introduction 
of  railroads,  steamships,  the  electric  telegraph 
and  cable,  the  panics  of  1837,  1857  and  1873; 
also,  through  the  Mexican  war  and  our  own 
civil  war,  and  all  else  that  has  occurred  to  op- 
pose such  regularity.  And  what  more  can  a 
reasonable  person  ask  to  prevent  its  action? 
And  yet  it  rides  triumphant  over  all,  and  asserts 
itself  up  to  the  present  time  in  a  wonderful 
manner. 

In  the  commodity  of  Iron,  the  author  takes 
the  best  tables  this  country  affords,  and  with 
the  formation  of  which  he  has  nothing  to  do, 
viz.:  those  compiled  by  the  American  Iron  and 
Steel  Association  of  Philadelphia,  and  from 
these  prices,  for  the  past  fifty  years,  are  shown 
the  highest  and  lowest  years,  which  are  system- 


134  benner's  prophecies. 

atically  apart,  forming  cycles  which  repeat 
themselves  at  certain  fixed  periods.  These  are 
facts,  and  if  facts,  they  are  true,  whether  they 
are  believed  or  not. 

Iron  is  the  strongest  element  of  general  busi- 
ness; and  when  the  price  of  iron  is  advancing 
and  high,  general  business  is  always  prosperous, 
and  labor  finds  steady  and  remunerative  em- 
ployment. On  the  contrary,  when  iron  is  de- 
declining  and  low,  general  business  languishes 
and  labor  suffers  its  worst.  This  fact  has  been 
invariably  the  case  during  the  whole  history  of 
the  United  States;  and  it  is  the  great  desider- 
atum of  the  age  to  discover  the  operation  of  a 
repetition  in  this  commodity,  and  place  it  iiitel- 
ligently  before  the  public,  so  that  business 
men  can  shape  their  afPairs  in  accordance 
with  it. 

The  uncertainty  heretofore  of  all  manufac- 
turing business,  for  a  want  of  the  knowledge  of 
how  long  good  trade  or  poor  trade  would  con- 
tinue, of  which  it  seems  our  sharpest  and  most 
experienced  men  have  made  serious  and  fatal 
mistakes,  will  now,  by  this  knowledge  of  repe- 
tition, be  enabled  to  forecast  the  run  of  future 
business,  and  give  them  more  confidence  by 
knowing  when  to  contract  or  expand  their  op- 
erations. 


PROPHECIES    VERIFIED.  135 

Many  a  chance  for  a  fortune  is  lost  through 
over  caution;  and  many  a  fortune  is  lost 
through  being  over  sanguine,  without  a  sure 
guide  gained  by  the  known  laws  of  the  opera- 
tions of  the  past.  The  height  and  culmination 
of  a  speculative  era  is  the  best  time  for  sinking 
capital  beyond  the  hope  of  recovery,  and  com- 
mercial depression  affords  the  best  opportunity 
for  profitable  investment,  as  these  pages  show 
under  the  head  of  Iron  and  Panic. 

PROPHECIES  YERIFIED. 

The  author  predicted,  in  1875,  that  there 
would  be  a  continuation  of  the  depression  in 
iron  and  general  business  to  extend  through 
1876  and  1877 — which  prophecies  were  fulfilled. 

The  further  prediction  then,  was  that  prices 
would  commence  to  advance  in  1878 — which 
they  did.  The  advance  in  iron  commenced  in 
the  latter  part  of  1878,  while  railroad  stocks 
had  reached  their  lowest  limit  of  decline  in 
1877.  These  years— 1877  and  1878— were  the 
end  of  the  great  commercial  depression  foreseen 
and  predicted  by  the  writer. 

The  remarkable  part  of  this  prediction  was  in 
forecasting  a  turn  in  business  affairs, and  higher 
prices  to  follow,  in  spite  of  resumption  of  spe- 


136  benner's  prophecies. 

cie  payments.  The  general  opinion  at  that 
time,  was  that  resumption  meant  contraction 
and  lower  prices. 

During  1879  and  1880,  the  times  improved 
and  prices  advanced,  just  as  predicted.  All 
trades  and  industries  were  active  through  these 
years.  Iron  reached  its  highest  price  in  1880, 
and  stocks  in  1881. 

The  prediction  also  was  that  after  1881  prices 
would  decline  and  the  times  grow  worse,  which 
prediction  has  been  verified  down  to  this  dale. 

The  two  important  points,  one  of  depression 
in  1877,  and  the  commencement  of  better  times 
in  1878,  and  to  follow,  and  the  other  of  great 
business  activity  and  culmination  in  1881,  and 
the  commencement  of  dull  and  poor  trade,  and 
to  follow  after  that  year,  have  been  substantially 
verified. 

On  page  49,  of  this  book,  there  is  said,  "  that 
the  years  1882,  '83,  '84,  '85,  '86,  '87  and  '88,  will 
be  years  of  decline  in  the  price  of  pig-iron,  and 
years  of  depression  in  this  business."  Now,  let 
us  see  what  the  secretary  of  the  Iron  and  Steel 
Association  says  in  his  report  made  in  1883  : 
"In  our  last  annual  report,  in  June,  1882,  the 
fact  was  noted,  that  the  extraordinary  activity 
in  our  iron  and  steel  industries,  which  had  com- 
menced in   1879,  had  culminated  early  in  1882, 


PROPHECIES    VERIFIED.  Idi 

when  the  wants  of  consumers  became  less  ur- 
gent and  prices  generally  began  to  decline. 
This  reaction  was  not  sudden  nor  violent,  but 
was,  indeed,  so  gradual  and  tranquil  that  it  not 
only,  for  some  time,  excited  no  apprehension  of 
impending  stringency,  but  was  actually  imper- 
ceptible to  many  manufacturers  whose  books 
still  continued  to  receive  liberal  orders  at  satis- 
factory prices.  After  the  resumption  of  activity 
in  the  rolling  mills,  the  price  of  rolled  iron  and 
pig-iron  declined  until  the  close  of  the  year, 
and  in  JSTovember  and  December  the  market  for 
these  products  was  greatly  depressed.  Steel 
rails,  which  were  the  first  of  all  iron  and  steel 
products  to  weaken  in  price — quotations  having 
slighily  receded  as  early  as  December,  1881 — 
steadily  declined  in  price  throughout  the  whole 
year,  the  sharpest  decline  occurring  in  Novem- 
ber and  December,  when  the  demand  for  future 
delivery  almost  came  to  an  end.  At  the  begin- 
ning of  December,  1881,  the  average  price  of 
steel  rails,  at  the  mills,  was  $60. a  ton;  but  in 
December,  1882,  tiie  average  price  was  only  $39. 
In  all  the  fluctuations  of  prices  of  iron  and  steel 
that  have  taken  place  in  this  country,  we  know 
of  none  so  sweeping  as  this  decline  in  the  price 
of  steel  rails,  if  we  except  the  fluctuations  of 
1879  and  1880,  and  many  of  these  were  entirely 


138  benner's  prophecies. 

speculative.  The  causes  which  contributed  to 
the  serious,  but  in  no  sense  disastrous,  reaction 
in  our  iron  and  steel  industries,  in  1882,  were 
many  and  various." 

The  lowest  limit  for  pig-iron  being  touched  a 
few  months  later,  and  the  highest  daily  price 
earlier  than  the  specified  limitations  and  culmi- 
nations in  predictions  made  for  the  years  1877 
and  1881,  do  not  affect  the  verification  of  tlie 
repetitions,  as  there  were  very  important  causes 
why  these  limits  were  prolonged  and  hastened 
a  few  months.  In  whatever  can  not  be  as  ex- 
act as  two  and  two  are  four,  is  no  reason  why 
'tis  false  and  should  be  abandoned. 

Let  the  thinking  mind  of  any  far-seeing  busi- 
ness man  call  into  action  all  his  mental  energies 
— gird  himself  to  the  herculean  task;  let  him 
put  forth  his  proudest  thought,  grasp  the  sub- 
ject with  a  giant  arm,  and  endeavor  to  forecast 
the  future  ups  and  downs  of  iron  and  general 
business  in  this  country  for  the  next  ten  years, 
without  the  help  of  cycles  and  this  law  of  repe- 
tition, as  the  author  has  set  forth  in  these 
pages,  and  see  how  wide  he  will  miss  the  mark. 

A  prominent  grain  merchant,  when  ques- 
tions in  regard  to  the  probable  effect  of  a  Euro- 
pean war  upon  the  market  for  American  bread- 
stufi*s,  replied  that  definite  predictions  could  be 


SIGNS  OF  THE  TIMES.  139 

obtained  only  from  merchants  who  had  been 
but  a  short  time  in  the  business  ;  the  older  he 
grew  the  more  ignorant  he  became  concerning 
the  future. 


SIGNS  OF  THE  TIxMES. 

The  price  of  iron  has  steadily  fallen  through 
the  year  1883. 

That  the  times  are  dull,  can  not  be  disputed. 
We  have  now  the  anamoly  of  an  easy  money 
market  and  hard  times.  From  month  to 
month,  since  1881,  commodities  have  fallen  in 
price,  wages  have  been  cut  down,  manufactories 
closed,  workmen  thrown  out  of  employment, 
and  at  the  present  time  the  cities  fairly  swarm 
with  a  grand  army  of  the  unemj)loyed.  There 
has  not  been  for  years  a  greater  scarcity  of 
trade  bills,  so  little  demand  for  the  deposits  that 
banks  and  discount  houses  hold.  Unsound 
firms  and  mismanaged  corporations  are  failing 
daily,  a  series  of  commercial  failures  larger 
than  ever  in  this  country.  A  merchant  con- 
templating an  opening  up  of  a  new  department 
in  trade,  postpones  il ;  a  manufacturer  needing 
new  machinery,  puts  oif  the  purchase  of  it ;  a 
man  intending  to  build  a  new  house,  waits.  All 
these  indicate  poor  trade  and  great  prostration 


140  benner's  prophecies. 

in  business.  And  this  stato  of  affairs  in  this 
country,  which  wo  are  compelled  to  describe  as 
it  actually  exists,  is  likely  to  continue  until  we 
have  a  turn  in  iron  for  great  activity,  which  can 
not  come  until  1888,  as  pointed  out  by  the  repe- 
titions of  the  past. 

All  persons  who  are  interested  in  pig-iron 
and  railroad  and  other  securities,  are  anxiously 
inquiring  into  the  probabilities  of  iron  declining 
more.  With  over  one-third  of  the  blastfurnaces 
in  this  country  standing  idle,  and  the  greater 
number  of  those  in  blast  struggling  to  pay  ex- 
penses, this  inquiry  is  one  of  great  and  ex- 
ceeding interest. 

The  writer  now  proceeds  to  outline  the  future 
condition  of  trade,  from  this  time  to  the  close  of 
this  century. 

1884. 

Presidential  year.  The  absorbing  topic. 
What  party  is  going  to  administer  the  Govern- 
ment for  the  next  four  years  to  be  decided  in 
the  election  this  fall,  will  be  a  disturbing  ele- 
ment in  business,  and  will  have  the  effect  of 
casting  its  withering  shadow  before  it,  clogging 
the  wheels  of  commerce  and  manufacture ; 
hence,  dull  trade.  Iron  will  continue  to  drooj), 
with  lower  prices. 


SIGNS  OF  THE  TIMES.  141 

1885. 

This  3^ear  will  show  some  resumption  in  the 
business  of  the  country,  the  election  being 
over  and  out  of  the  way.  There  will  be  a  little 
higher  average  for  iron  for  this  year,  and  this 
year  only,  with  railroad  stocks  higher  than  in 
i884. 

1886. 

A  renewal  of  depression  in  the  iron  and  gen- 
eral business,  and  a  lower  average  for  iron. 
Free-trade  agitation  and  legislation  by  Con- 
gress. The  low  duty  tariffs  have  been  shameful 
failures  in  this  country,  reducing  the  Govern- 
ment and  people  to  a  deplorable  condition. 
The  low-tariff  era,  from  1857  to  1861,  was  one 
of  the  darkest  periods  ever  seen  by  the  labor- 
ing people  of  America.     Stocks  lower. 

1887. 
Continuation  of  the  same  dull  trade  of  1886, 
with  no  hope  for  iron  this  year. 

1888. 

Presidential    year;     all    business   prostrated 

and  exhausted.     A  general   complaint  of  hard 

times  all  over  the  country.     Banks  failing  and 

stocks  to  their  lowest  point.     Iron  and  stock£. 


142  benner's  prophecies. 

will  touch  their  lowest  limit  in  this  decline,  and 
turn  upward  in  this  year, 

1889. 
A  great  speculative  era  opening  up.    Hurrah, 
for    business !      Iron    advances.      !N"ow    for    a 
Boom. 

1890. 
Great  activity  in  general  business.     Iron  and 
stocks  advancing  and  bounding  upward,  from 
the  beginning  to  the  ending  of  this  year.     A  rep- 
etition of  the  year  1879. 

1891. 
This  era  of  speculation  and  great  prosperity 
comes  to  a  close  this  year  with  a  Panic.  A 
commercial  revulsion  and  general  reaction  in 
all  business  after  this  year,  and  down  goes  trade 
for  a  series  of  years. 

1892,  1893,  1894,  1895,  1896,  1897. 
Dull  years  and  poor  trade. 

1898,  1899. 
Good  trade  and  an  active  business  in  all  in- 
dustries,  winding   up   this   19th  century  in  the 
height  of  a  speculative  era. 


SIGNS  OF  THE   TIMES.  143 

It  will  be  noticed  that  there  are  to  be  only 
two  period  of  j'ear.s,  from  this  time  until  1900^ 
when  we  will  have  great  activity  in  general 
business,  and  these  are  given  below  in  the  fu- 
ture. 

The  former  prominent  active  business  periods 
of  advances  in  iron  were  from 

1834  to  1837. 
1843  to  1845. 
1850  to  1854. 
1861  to  1864. 
1870  to  1872. 
1878  to  1880.     . 

FUTURE. 

1888  to  1891. 
1897  to  1899. 

It  seems  from  the  above  that  the  advance  and 
activity  in  iron  is  but  a  few  months  at  a  time 
wbile  the  periods  of  decline  are  numbered  by 
years  and  of  long  duration.  However,  it 
should  not  be  a  subject  of  too  much  complaint 
when  we  think  of  the  locust — only  a  week's 
song  in  every  seventeen  years. 


144 


BENNER  S  PROPHECIES. 


AVERAGE    YEARLY    PRICES   FOR  PIG- 
IROX. 


FEARS. 

PRICE. 

TOXS 

YEARS. 

PRICE. 

TOXS. 

1844 

25i 

. 

1863 

35i 

947.604 

18i5 

29i 

1864 

59: 

1,135  996 

1846 

27|- 

1865 

•  46^ 

931  582 

1847 

30i 

1866 

46^ 

1,350,343 

1848 

26|- 

1867 

44J- 

1,461,626 

1849 

22  i 

1868 

391- 

1,603,000 

1850 

20| 

1869 

401 

1,916,641 

1851 

21f 

1870 

33  ■ 

1,865,000 

1852 

221 

1871 

,35- 

1,911,608 

1853 

36i 

1872 

48- 

2,854,558 

1854 

36|    '3 

^36,21 

S     1873 

42- 

2,868  278 

1855 

27f 

r84,17 

B     1874 

30 

2:689,413 

1856 

27|    ^ 

583,13 

7     1875 

25i 

2,266,581 

1857 

26 1    ) 

^98,15 

7     1876 

22- 

2,093,236 

1858 

22i-    ^ 

05,09 

4    1877 

18- 

2  314.585 

1859 

23|    e 

40,62 

7     1878 

17- 

2  577.361 

1860 

22f    J 

)19,77 

0     1879 

21i 

3,070.875 

1861 

20i    7 

31,54- 

t     1880 

28| 

4295,414 

1862 

23|    1 

87,66 

2     1881 

25i 

4,641,564 

1882 

25i 

5,178,122 

F 

A] 

[LURES. 

As  compiled  by  R.  G.  Dan  &  Co.,  of  iN'ew 
York  City,  for  the  year  1883,  there  were  over 
nine  thousand  traders  failed  in  business;  and, 
with  the  exception  of  the  year  1878,  there  were 
more  failures  in  number  in  1883  than  in  any 
year  in. the  history  of  this  country. 


FAILURES.  145 

To  quote  from  their  circular  of  January,  1884  : 
^' Under  such  circumstancess  the  inquiry  is  a 
most  anxious  one,  as  to  what  is  the  actual  busi- 
ness outlook  for  the  opening  year.  If,  with  all 
that  has  happened  in  the  past  of  a  flivorable 
character,  disasters  of  such  magnitude  have 
occured,  what  is  to  be  expected  with  the  loss  of 
confidence  which  these  calamities  have  caused, 
with  the  restricted  credit  accomodation,  lessened 
business,  and  the  steady  depreciation  in  values, 
which  seem  to  be  the  daily  experience." 

Now,  the  writer  undertakes  to  state,  that  the  ca^ 
pacity  of  this  country  to  overproduce  is  out  of  all 
proportion  to  the  power  and  ability  to  consum-O; 

This  fact  was  very  plainly  exemplified  in  th@ 
iron  business  during  1879.  Just  so  soon  as  the 
people  saw  that  iron  had  started  upward,,  every 
old  furnace  trap  in  this  country,  that  had  been 
idle  for  years,  was  repaired  and  put  to  work, 
and  run  to  its  full  capacity.  All  the  ore,  coal 
and  timber  lands  were  optioned,  and  every  body 
seemed  to  be  going  into  the  iron  business;;  and, 
in  the  spring  of  1880,  it  was  plainly  to  be  seen, 
that  there  was  to  be  an  enormous  production  of 
pig-iron. 

The  fact  of  the  business  was,  that  there  were 
a  million  of  tons  more  iron  made  in  1880  than 
in  1879,  and  the  consequence  was,  that  the  up- 


146  benner's  prophecies. 

ward  march  in  the  price  had  to  halt  in  that  year 
— and  this  very  over  production  has  ruined  the 
iron  trade,  and  brought  about  unprofitable  gen- 
eral business  to  this  day. 

Take  any  trade  or  industry  in  this  country, 
where  the  people  are  free  to  engage  in  it,  and 
not  hampered  by  any  restrictive  laws,  and  the 
moment  that  prices  rise  in  any  product  or  com- 
modity, it  seems  that  every  body — like  a  flock 
of  sheep — goes  in  that  direction,  and  we  soon 
have  an  over  production,  and  down  goes  the 
price  for  a  number  of  years.  What  can  be  said 
of  any  one  production  in  this  respect  can  be 
applied  to  general  business;  and  no  matter  if 
the  country  in  itself  is  sound,  and  the  ability  of 
consumers  to  absorb  and  pay  for  their  wants 
and  luxuries,  large  emigration  and  great 
growth,  the  startling  fact  present  itself  that 
business  can  and  does  stagnate  and  becomes 
very  much  depressed  in  these  repetitions  of  the 
long  terms  of  decline  in  iron. 

Better  times  can  not  come  for  general  busi- 
ness, until  the  price  of  iron  shows  that  it  is  in 
demand  in  the  industries  of  this  country.  And 
to  answer  the  above  inquiry,  the  record  of  the 
number  of  failures  is  here  given,  and  the  ups 
and  downs  in  iron  in  the  past  and  extended  in- 
to the  future,  showing  how  long  these  numerous 
failures  must  continue. 


FAILURES.  147 

Iron  high. 


1854 

iiuu.  mg 

1855 

1856 

1857 

4,932 

1858 

4,225 

^^^..'^ 

1859 

3,913 

^^^^^"^ 

1860 

3,676 

^^.^^"^^ 

1861 

6,993  <:; 

Iron  low. 

1862 

1,652 

— — >___^___^ 

1863 

495 

1864 
1865 

520 
530 

Iron  high, 

1866 

1,505 

1867 

2,780 

1868 

2,608 

^ — ^ 

1869 

2,799 

^^^^.^-"''''^^ 

1870 

3,546  <: 

■^       Iron  low. 

1871 

2,915 

■ _______ 

1872 

4,069 

1873 

5,183 

Iron  high. 

1874 

5,830 

1875 

7,740 

1876 

9,092 

^^^^^^^ 

1877 

8,872 

^ 

1878 

10,478.^ 

-^"■"^  Iron  low. 

1879 

6,658 

"" 

1880 

4,735 

Iron  high. 

1881 

5,582 

1882 

6,738 

1883 

9,184 

1884 

^^ 

1885 

^^^x^"""^^ 

1886 

^^^y^^^^ 

1887 

^^ 

.^^^^ 

1888 

< 

Iron  low. 

148  benner's  prophecies. 

It  can  be  seen,  by  the  foregoing  diagram,  that 
whenever  iron  is  high  there  is  a  less  number  of 
failures,  and  as  iron  declines  in  price,  and  is 
low,  the  failures  increase,  and  reach  their  great- 
est number  when  iron  is  at  its  lowest  point. 

This  showing  indicates  that  there  will  be  an 
increased  number  of  failures,  over  and  above 
the  number  for  1883,  before  we  get  a  turn  in 
business  affiairs,  as  we  have  not  reached  the 
lowest  limit  for  iron  in  this  decline. 

EAILEOAD  STOCKS. 

The  magnitude  of  the  railroad  interest  of  this 
country,  has  given  it  the  position  of  the  great 
leading  element  for  speculation  and  invest- 
ment. 

This  business  has  grown  so  extensively  in  the 
United  States,  in  the  past  twenty  years,  that  it 
excites  admiration  and  wonder. 

In  18G0  there  were  only  30,635  miles  of  fin- 
ished road,  and  about  250  members  of  the  New 
York  Stock  Exchange.  In  this  year  there  is 
over  120,000  miles  of  road,  with  over  1,000  mem- 
bers of  the  New  York  Exchange. 

This  great  activity  in  railroad  building  and 
stock  operations  have  been  the  result  of  the 
greenback  era.    With  the  rapid  settlement  of  the 


RAILROAD   STOCKS.  149 

Western  States  under  land  grants,  homestead 
laws  and  agricultural  machinery  began  to  in- 
crease immensely,  since  the  war,  the  East  and 
West  railroad  traffic — there  having  been  built 
within  the  last  three  years  more  miles  of  rail- 
road than  was  built  altogether  before  the  war. 
The  railroad  system  being  now  almost  practi- 
cally completed  east  of  the  Mississippi  river, 
we  can  reasonably  expect  to  see  the  excitement, 
pertaining  to  so  many  new  projected  lines  pass 
away,  and  the  price  for  railroad  stocks  to  take 
their  legitmate  place  in  the  market,  along  with 
iron,  and  rise  and  fall  in  their  value,  as  iron  goes 
up  and  down,  in  the  markets  of  our  country. 

The  time  is  past  now  for  any  great  excite- 
ment in  the  activity  and  advance  in  stocks,  and, 
for  a  few  years  following,  we  may  look  for  con- 
tinued lower  prices,  with  the  exceptions  of  some 
upheavals  that  may  be  engineered  and  pro- 
duced by  combinations  and  manipulations. 

The  speculator  who  may  attempt  to  bull  the 
stock  market,  or  the  investor  who  may  confide 
his  means  in  these  securities,  thinking  the  turn 
has  come  for  another  boom  in  the  stock  market, 
will  find,  in  the  long  run,  that  the  market  will 
gradually  and  surely  go  away  from  him — like 
the  sand  from  under  the  feet  of  the  fisherman, 
while  standing  in  a  stream  of  running  water. 


150  benner's  prophecies. 

There  is  a  saying  in  Wall  Street  that  there  is 
one  certain  way  to  make  money  in  stocks: 
''Buy  when  they  are  cheap,  and  sell  when  they 
are  dear.*'  This  is  the  simplest  kind  of  a  rule, 
and  it  is  a  perpetual  wonder  that  so  many  fail 
in  getting  the  hang  of  it. 

In  Wall  Street,  it  is  the  operator  who  forms  a 
correct  theory  as  to  the  course  of  prices  who 
makes  the  most  money  in  the  long  run — mere 
traders  are  sure  to  get  swamped.  It  is  those 
who  see  furthest  ahead,  and  have  the  courage 
to  act  uj)on  their  convictions,  that  secure  the 
great  prizes  in  the  stock  market. 

In  the  year  1860,  some  of  the  leading  stocks 
at  that  time  were  very  low — Erie,  8  ;  New  York 
and  Harlem,  8;  Michigan  Southern,  5;  Cleve- 
land and  Pittsburgh,  5. 

In  1877,  some  low  prices  again — Erie,  5; 
Hannibal  &  St.  Joe,  7 ;  Ohio  and  Mississippi, 
2J;  Wabash,  |. 

There  were  two  periods,  one  before  the  war 
and  the  other  afterward,  when  stocks  were  very 
low,  and  those  were  the  times  to  make  invest- 
ments. The  same  opportunity  for  investors  to 
catch  stocks  so  low  as  in  these  two  years  will  not, 
in  opinion  of  the  author,  come  around  again  until 
after  the  next  panic,  as  described  in  this  book; 
as  these  two  low  periods  were  the  effects  of  the 


RAILROAD    STOCKS.  151 

revulsions  in  business  caused  by  the  panics  of 
1857  and  1873. 

In  the  declines  of  1865,  1867,  and  1870,  we 
did  not  have  as  low  prices  as  after  the  panic  of 
1873,  when  prices  for  stocks  seem  to  almost 
vanish  out  of  sight. 

In  the  present  decline,  from  1881  to  1884,  we 
have  something  similar  to  the  declines  into  1867 
and  1870,  and  some  lower  points  made  this  year 
than  in  1865,  1867  or  1870,  and,  reasoning  from 
what  we  know,  stocks  have  been  low  enough  in 
this  year  for  this  decline  so  far,  and,  therefore, 
we  should  not  have  lower  points  until  after 
next  year,  the  year  1885  being  a  steady  and 
slightly  up  year  for  iron.  In  the  years  1886 
and  1887  there  will  be  lower  stocks,  running- 
into  1888,  when  the  turn  comes  again  for  ac- 
tivity in  iron  stocks  and  all  business. 


152 


RAILROAD   STOCKS. 


MILES  OF  RAILROAD  IN  U.  S. 


153 


MILES  OP  EAILROAD  IN  U.  S. 


^EAR, 

MILES  IN 
OPERATION, 

ANNUAL 
INCREASE, 

1820  .  . 

23  .  . 

1831  .  . 

95  .  . 

[       72 

1832  .  . 

229  .  . 

134 

1833  .  . 

380  .  . 

151 

1834  .  . 

633  .  . 

253 

1835  .  . 

1,098  .  . 

465 

1836  .  . 

1,273  .  . 

175 

1837  .  . 

1,497  .  . 

224 

1838  .  . 

1,913  .  . 

416 

1839  .  . 

2,302  .  . 

389  *• 

1840  .  . 

2,818  .  . 

516 

1841  .  . 

3,535  .  . 

717 

1812  .  . 

4,026  .  . 

491 

1843  .  . 

4,185  .  .  , 

159 

1844  .  . 

4,377  .  .  . 

192 

1845  .  . 

4,633  .  . 

256 

1846  .  .  , 

4,930  .  . 

297 

1847  .  . 

5,598  .  . 

668 

1848  .  . 

5,996  .  .  . 

398 

1849  .  .  . 

7,365  .  . 

1,369 

1850  .  .  , 

9,021  .  . 

1,656 

1851  .  .  . 

10,982  .  . 

1,961 

1852  .  .  . 

12,908  .  . 

1,S26 

1853  .  .  . 

15,360  .  . 

.   2,452 

1854  .  .  . 

16,720  .  . 

1,360 

1855  .  .  , 

18,374  .  . 

1,654 

1856  ,  . 

22,016  .  . 

3.647 

1857  .  .  . 

24,503  .  . 

2,647 

1858  .  .  . 

26,968  .  . 

.   2,465 

154 


BENNER  S  PROPHECIES. 


YEAR. 

MILES  TN 
OPERATION. 

ANNUAL 
INCREASE. 

1859  .  . 

28,789  .  . 

1,821 

1860  .  . 

30,635  .  . 

1,846 

1861  .  . 

31,286  .  . 

651 

1862  .  . 

32,120  .  . 

834 

1863  .  . 

33,170  .  . 

1,050 

1864  .  .• 

33,908  .  . 

738 

1865  .  . 

35,085  .  . 

1,177 

1866  .  . 

36,801  .  .  . 

1,742 

1867  .  . 

39,250  .  .  , 

2,449 

1868  .  . 

42,229  .  . 

2,979 

1869  .  . 

46,844  .  .  . 

4,615 

1870  .  . 

52,914  .  . 

6,070 

1871  .  . 

60,283  .  .  , 

7,379 

1872  .  . 

66,171  .  . 

5,878 

1873  .  .  . 

70,278  .  . 

4,107 

1874  .  .  . 

72,383  .  .  . 

2.105 

1875  .  . 

74,096  .  .  . 

1,712 

1876  .  .  . 

76,808  .  .  , 

2,712 

1877  .  . 

79,089  .  .  . 

2,281 

1878  .  . 

81,776  .  . 

2,687 

1879  .  . 

86,497  .  . 

4,721 

1880  .  . 

91,944  .  . 

7,174 

1881  .  . 

.   101,733  .  . 

9,789 

1882  .  .  , 

113,329  .  . 

11,591 

WINTER  VACKINQ  OP  HOGS. 


155 


WINTER  PACKING  Of  HOGS— NET  AND 
GEOSS  COST. 


SEASON. 

NO.  PACKED. 

COST. 
NET. 

COST. 
GEOSS. 

1842-43 

675,000 

1843-44 

1,245,000 

1844-45 

790,000 

$  3  30 

$  2  65 

1845-46 

900,000 

'  4  85 

3  90 

1846-47 

800,000 

3  55 

2  85 

1847-48 

1,710,000 

3  25 

2  60 

1848-49 

1,560,000 

4  70 

3  75 

1849-50 

1,652,220 

2  66 

2  13 

1850-51 

1,332,867 

3  75 

3  00 

1851-52 

1,182,846 

4  45 

3  56 

1852-53 

2,201,110 

6  01 

4  81 

1853-54 

2,534,770 

4  19 

3  35 

1854-55 

2,124,404 

4  21 

3  37 

1855-56 

2,489,502 

5  75 

4  60 

1856-57 

1,818,468 

5  94 

4  75 

1857-58 

2,210,778 

4  86 

3  89 

1858-59 

2,465,552 

6  28 

5  02 

1859-60 

2,350,822 

5  91 

4  73 

1860-61 

2,155,702 

5  67 

4  57 

1861-62 

2,893,666 

3  03 

2  42 

1862-63 

4,069,520 

4  20 

3  36 

1863-64 

3,261,105 

6  70 

5  36 

1864-65 

2,442,779 

14  32 

11  46 

1865-66 

1,785,955 

11  67 

9  34 

1866-67 

2,490,791 

7  22 

5  78 

1867-68 

2,781,084 

7  95 

6  36 

1868-69 

2,499,873 

10  22 

8  18 

1869-70 

2,635,312 

11  53 

9  22 

156 


BENNER  S  PROFHECIES. 


SEASON. 

NO.  PACKED. 

COST. 

COST. 

NET. 

GROSS. 

1870-71 

3,695.251 

6  58 

5  26 

1871-72 

4,831,558 

5  15 

4  12 

1872-73 

5,410,314 

4  66 

3  73 

1873-74 

5,466,200 

5  43 

4  34 

1874-75 

5,566,226 

8  33 

6  60 

1875-76 

4,880,135 

8  82 

7  05 

1876-77 

5,101,308 

7  18 

5  74 

1877-78 

6,505,446 

4  99 

3  99 

1878-79 

7,480,648 

3  56 

2  85 

1879-80 

6,950,451 

5  22 

4  18 

1880-81 

6,919.456 

5  80 

4  64 

1881-82 

5,747,760 

7  58 

6  06 

1882-83 

6,132,212 

7  85 

6  28 

CORN. 


157 


COEN. 


YEAR. 

PEOD  UCTION,       A  VERA  GE 

VALUE  PER  BU. 

1840  .  .  , 

377,000,000 

1850  .  . 

592,000,000 

1860  .  . 

.   838,000,000 

1862  .  . 

533,387,230  . 

.  34 

1863  ,  . 

397,839,212  .  . 

.  69 

1864  .  • 

530,451,403  . 

.  99 

1865  .  . 

.   704,427,853  . 

.  46 

1866  .  . 

867,946,295  .  . 

.  68 

1867  .  .  , 

768,420,000  .  . 

.  80 

1868  .  . 

906,527,000  .  . 

.  62 

1869  .  .  . 

874,320,000  .  , 

.  75 

1870  .  . 

1,094,255,000  . 

.  54 

1871  .  . 

991,898,000  . 

.  .  48 

1872  .  . 

1,092,719,000  . 

.  39 

1873  .  .  , 

932,274,000  . 

.  48 

1874  .  . 

850,148,500 

.  64 

1875  .  .  , 

1,321,069,000  . 

.  .  42 

1876  .  . 

1,283.827,500 

.  .  37 

1877  .  . 

1,342,558,000 

.  .  35 

1878  .  .  , 

1,388,218,750  . 

.  .  31 

1879  .  . 

.  1,547,901,790  . 

.  .  37 

1880  .  . 

1,717,434,543  . 

.  .  39 

1881  .  . 

1,194,916,000  . 

.  .  63 

1882  .  . 

1,617,025,100  . 

.  .  48 

1883  .  . 

1,500,000,000 

158  benner's  prophecies. 


THE  WEATHER 


The  author  does  not  claim  to  be  a  weather 
prophet,  as  the  weather  seems  to  be  one  of  the 
most  fickle  of  all  thi  ngs  under  the  sun.  However, 
a  chart  is  here  given  to  show  when  the  scorching 
heats  and  droughts,  the  great  floods  and  pro- 
longed cold  winters,  have  appeared  at  certain 
periods  in  this  country,  that  seem  to  repeat  the 
order  of  their  return  in  about  every  eight  years. 
This  order  is  extended  into  the  future,  showing 
the  probabilities  of  the  recurrence  of  these  ex- 
tremes in  the  seasons,  varying  the  crops,  and 
affecting  the  price  of  corn  and  hogs. 

The  extremes  of  rain-fall  and  great  floods  re- 
cur at  regular  periods  of  about  eight  years  in 
the  Ohio  and  Mississippi  rivers. 

The  periods  of  drought  and  extreme  low 
water  occur  regularly  at  almost  equal  intervals 
between  those  of  high  water. 

The  repetition  of  long,  cold  and  stormy  win- 
ters coincide  nearly  with  those  of  drought  in 
recurrence  and  duration. 


THE  WEATHER.  159 


WEATHER  CHART. 


YEARS 

YEARS 

WET. 

DRY, 

1850 

Flood. 

1851 

1852 
1853 

1854 

1855 

Drought- 

-Low  "Water. 

1856 

Drought- 

-Low  Water. 

1857 

1858 

Flood. 

1859 
1860 
1861 

1862 

1863 

Drought- 

-Low  Water. 

1864 

Drought- 

-Low  Water. 

1865 

1866 

Flood. 

1867 
1868 
1869 

1870 

1871 

Drought- 

-Low  Water. 

1872 
1873 

Drought- 

-Low  Water. 

1874 

Flood. 

1875 
1876 
1877 

1878 

1879 

Drought- 

-Low  Water. 

1880 

1881 

Drought" 

-Low  Water. 

160  benner's  prophecies. 

1882 

Flood.   1883 

1884 

1885 

1886 

1887  Drought— Low  Water. 

1888  Drought— Low  Water. 
1889 

1890 

Flood.      1891 

1892 

1893 

The  weather  chart  is  designed  to  show,  first, 
on  the  right,  the  group  of  four  years  of  extreme 
heat  and  extreme  cold;  and  second,  on  the  left, 
four  years  of  heavy  rain-falls  and  great  floods. 

The  author  does  not  claim  that  all  the  years 
in  the  groups  on  the  right  of  the  chart  will  be 
years  of  drought  and  heat  and  cold  winters ; 
neither  will  all  those  years  on  the  left  be  years 
of  excessive  rain-fall. 

It  is  only  asserted  that  there  will  be  two  of 
these  years  on  the  right  of  extreme  heat  and 
cold  winters,  and  on  the  left  at  least  one  regu- 
larly returning  year,  in  which  there  will  be  a 
great  flood,  as  pointed  out  on  the  chart. 

On  the  right,  in  the  first  group  of  four  years, 
tliere  were  extensive  droughts  in  1855  and  1856  ; 
and  the  winters  of  1855-56  and  1856-57  were 
extremely  cold. 

In  the  second  group,   there  were  extensive 


THE    WEATHER.  161 

di'oiigbts  in  1863  and  1864,  and  the  winters  of 
1863-64  and  1864-65  were  extremely  cold. 

In  the  third  group  there  were  extensive 
droughts  in  1871  and  1872;  and  the  winters  of 
1871-72  and  1872-73  were  extremely  cold. 

In  the  fourth  group  there  were  extensive 
droughts  in  1879  and  1881,  and  the  winters  of 
1878-9  and  1880-81  were  extremely  cold. 

On  the  left,  in  the  first  group  of  four  years, 
thei^e  was  a  great  flood  in  1851. 

In  the  second  group  there  was  a  great  flood 
in  1859.  in  the  third  group  there  was  a  great 
flood  in  1867. 

In  the  fourth  group  there  was  a  great  flood  in 
1875.  In  the  fifth  group  there  was  a  great  flood 
in  1883. 

From  these  records  of  the  past  thirty  years, 
without  going  back  to  hunt  down  far-fetched 
data,  the  conclusions  and  probabilities  are,  that 
there  will  not  be  any  very  great  floods  in  our 
rivers  from  this  time  till  after  1889,  with  the  ex- 
ception of  the  year  1886  (when  heretofore  there 
has  been  high  waters  the  first  year  of  these 
groups  of  dry  years),  and,  after  passing  the 
Spring  of  1886,  the  river  population  can  be 
assured  of  no  extraordinary  floods  of  high 
water  till  1890  and  1891. 

Also,    that   there   will   not  be   any  general 


162  benner's  prophecies. 

droughts  extending  all  over  this  country,  with 
extreme  heat,  till  after  1886;  and  that  there 
will  not  beany  excessive,  prolonged  cold  winters 
until  1887. 

For  the  next  two  years,  average  seasons  of 
rain-fall,  gradually  decreasing  till  1887  and 
1888,  when  in  these  years  there  w^ill  be  general 
droughts  and  low  water  in  the  rivers. 

The  winters  of  18S7-88  and  1888-89,  will  be 
extreme  prolonged  cold  winters,  with  storms  of 
snow. 

After  1888,  the  rain-fall  will  gradually  in- 
crease till  1891,  when  there  will  be  a  great 
flood  in  the  Ohio  and  Mississippi  rivers. 

The  year  1889  will  be  grasshopper  year  for 
the  States  and  Territories  West  of  the  Missis- 
sippi river. 

STAGES    OF    THE    OHIO    RIVER   AT    CINCINNATI, 
OHIO. 

[From  the  Report  of  the  Chamber  of  Commerce.] 


YEAR. 

HIGHEST. 

LOWEST. 

AVERAGE. 

Ft.    Jn. 

Ft.    In. 

Ft.    In. 

1832 

64.  3 

1847 

63.  7 

1858 

43  10 

2.  5 

12.10 

i85y 

55.  5 

3.  3 

17.  7 

i860 

49    2 

5.  4 

16. 

1861 

49.  5 

5.  1 

19.  1 

1862 

57.  4 

2.  4 

17.  5 

1863 

42.  9 

2.  6 

15. 

1864 

45.  1 

3.   1 

16.  8 

CORN   AND    HOGS.  163 


1865 

56.  3 

5.  8 

21.10 

1866 

42.  6 

4.  9 

19.  2 

1867 

65.  8 

3. 

17. 

1868 

48.  3 

5.  1 

18.  8 

1869 

48.  9 

5.  4 

19.  8 

1870 

55.  3 

3.10 

17.10 

1871 

40.  6 

2.  8 

11.10 

1872 

41.  9 

3. 

11.  8 

1873 

44.  5 

3.  8 

18.  5 

1874 

47.11 

2.  4 

15.  8 

1875 

55.  4 

4.  3 

18.  9 

1876 

51.  9 

6.  2 

18.  2 

1877 

53.  9 

3.  3 

15. 

1878 

41.  4 

4.  4 

16.  9 

1879 

42.  9 

2.  6 

14.  6 

1880 

53.  2 

3.  9 

17. 

1881 

50.  7 

1.11 

16.11 

1882 

58.  7 

6.  1 

22.  IJ 

1883 

•   66.  4 

3.  7 

19.  5J 

1884 

71.  Oi 

COEN  AND  HOGS. 

The  price  of  corn  and  hogs  is  moved  up  and 
down  more  quickly  in  their  repetitions,  by  the 
changes  in  the  weather  and  seasons,  than  the 
price  of  some  manufactured  commodities:  for 
instance  iron,  which  takes  a  longer  term  of 
years  to  bring  about  a  large  or  small  supply,  as 
the  cycle  in  hogs  is  only  from  five  to  six  years, 
while  iron  a  much  longer  term  of  years. 

In  the  repetitions  of  the  ups  and  downs  as 
given  in  this  book,  the  low  price  for  1877  was 
continued  into  1878,  by  the  dread  of  resumption 
of  specie  payments,  which  resulted  in  keeping 


164  benner's  prophecies. 

prices  down  into  1878  for  hogs,  iron,  and  other 
commodities. 

The  last  high  year  for  hogs  was  fixed  for 
1880.  IS'ow  to  assign  a  reason  why  the  price 
continued  to  advance,  after  that  year  to  1882, 
for  corn  and  hogs. 

It  can  only  bo  charged  to  the  great  drought  of 
1881  not  coming  in  the  year  1880,  its  proper 
place. 

The  former  rcguhirly  returning  droughts,  as 
shown  in  the  weather  chart  (which  is  introduced 
here  for  this  purpose),  were  in  the  years  1855- 
56,  1863-64,  1871-72,  1879,  skipping  1880,  the 
high  priced  year  in  the  cycle,  and  giving  us 
the  drought  in  1881,  winch  was  an  excessive 
dry  summer,  partially  destroying  the  corn  crop. 

This  delayed  disastrous  drought  being  pre- 
ceded by  the  extraordinary  long  continued  cold 
of  the  winter  of  1880-81,  which  had  already 
thinned  out  a  great  number  of  hogs,  was  the 
direct  cause  of  the  high  prices  being  continued 
longer  than  the  cycle  denoted. 

The  low  point  for  corn  and  hogs  is  for  this 
winter  ;  that  is,  for  the  packing  season  of  1883- 
84,  which  no  doubt  will  show  a  lower  average 
price  than  for  the  packing  season  of  1882-'83. 

The    further    prophecies    are   for   a   higher 


CORN   AND    HOGS.  165 

average  after  this  winter,  till  the  packing  sea- 
son of  1886-87. 

Now,  to  maintain  prices  about  the  present 
level,  or  to  have  a  higher  average  for  the  next 
three  years,  there  must  be  some  failures  in  the 
corn  or  hog  crops;  and  reasoning  from  what 
we  know,  that  during  the  cold  January  of  this 
winter  the  young  hogs  have  died  in  considerable 
numbers.  And  in  accordance  with  that  which 
our  weather  chart  indicates,  the  summer  seasons 
for  a  couple  of  years,  will  be  wet,  with  low  tem- 
perature, and  not  favorable  for  large  yields  of 
merchantable  sound  corn.  And  the  further  in- 
dications are,  that  we  will  not  have  good  corn 
crops  until  the  dry  weather  of  1887  and  1888, 
when  the  price  of  corn  and  hogs  will  decline  to 
a  lower  average,  as  they  did  during  the  dry 
weather  of  1871  and  1872. 


166  BENNER's  rROPHECIES. 


niGHEST   AND   LOWEST  PRICES  IN  NEW  YORK  FOR 
MIDDLING  UPLAND    COTTON    AND    THE    CROPS: 


YEAR. 

HIGHEST. 

LOWEST. 

BALES. 

18*?'! 

14 

Q 

1  O— vJ 

1827 
1828 

1fi9Q 

At: 

12 
13 
1 1 

8 
9 

8 
8 
7 
7 
9 

1830 
1831 
1832 
1833 

JL  i- 

11 

12 
17 

987,477 
1,070,438 
1,205,394 

1834 

1835 
1836 

16 

20 
20 

10 
15 
12 

1,254,328 
1,360,71^5 
1,425,575 

1837 
1838 

17 
12 

7 
9 

1,804,797 
1,363,403 

1839 

16 

11 

2.181,749 

1840 

1841 
1842 
1843 
1844 

10 

11 

9 

8 

9 

8 
9 
7 
5 
5 

1,639.353 

1,688,675 
2,394,203 
2,108,579 
2,484,662 

1845 

9 

4 

2,170,537 

1846 
1847 
1843 

9 
12 

8 

6 

7 
5 

1,860,479 
2,424,113 

2,808,596 

1849 

11 

6 

2,171,706 

COTTON    AND    CROPS. 


167 


1S50 

14 

11 

2,415,257 

1851 

14 

8 

3,090.029 

1852 

10 

8 

3,352,882 

1853 

11 

10 

3,035,027 

1854 

10 

8 

2.932,339 

1855 

11 

7 

3,645,345 

1856 

12 

9 

3,056.519 

1857 

15 

13 

3,238,902 

1858 

13 

9 

3,994,481 

1859 

12 

11 

4,823,770 

1860 

11 

10 

3,826,086 

1861 
1862 
1863 

1864 
1865 

28 

11 

20 

uo 

88 
1.90 
1.22 

54 

t7-± 

72 
33 

2.228,987 

1866 

52 

32 

2,059,271 

1867 

36 

15i      2.498,895 

1868 

33 

16 

2,439,039 

1869 

35 

25 

3,154,946 

1870 

25| 

15 

4,352,317 

1871 

21i 

14^ 

i               2,974,351 

1872 

27f 

18|      3,930,508 

1873 

21f 

ly^               4,170.388 

1874 

18|- 

14f      3,832,991 

1875 

IH 

13- 

-V      4,669,288 

1876 

IHf 

10^'      4.485,423 

1877 

i^V^ 

10- 

-f      4,773,865 

1878 

12-\ 

8- 

-f      5,074,155 

1879 

13| 

9: 

5,761,252 

1880 

iHi 

10- 

-f      6,605,750 

1881 

13 

10- 

-V      5,456,048 

1882 

13tV 

10, 

L         _ 

168 


BENNER  S  PROPHECIES. 


WHEAT. 

YEAR. 

PROD  UCTION.        A  VERA  GE 

VALUE  PER  BU. 

1862  .  . 

177,957,172  ...  $  93 

1863  .  . 

173,677.928 

1  14 

1864  .  . 

160,695,823 

1  83 

1865  .  . 

148,522.827 

1  46 

1866  .  . 

151.999  906 

2  19 

1867  .  . 

212,441,400 

1  98 

1868  .  . 

224,036,600 

1  42 

1869  .  . 

260,1 4!],900 

94 

1870  .  . 

235,884.700 

1  04 

1871  .  . 

230,722,400 

1  25 

1872  .  . 

249,997,100 

1  24 

1873  .  . 

281,254.700 

1  15 

1874  .  . 

309.102,700 

94 

1875  .  . 

292,1P6,000 

1  00 

1876  .  . 

289.356,500 

1  03 

1877  .  . 

364,194.146 

1  08 

1878  .  . 

.   420,122.400 

77 

1879  .  . 

448,756,630 

1  10 

1880  .  . 

.   498,549,868 

95 

1881  .  . 

380,280,090 

.   1  19 

1882  .  . 

.   504,185,470 

88 

1883  .  . 

.   420,000,000 

WHEAT.  169 

The  total  production  and  average  value  per 
bushel  of  the  wheat  crops  since  1862,  are  here 
given  as  compiled  by  the  Department  of  Agri- 
culture. 

The  author  has  never  been  enabled  to  form 
any  cycles  in  the  price  of  this  cereal  that  would 
show  any  repetition  of  high  or  low  prices  that 
could  be  extended  into  the  future. 

To  judge  of  the  surrounding  conditions  and 
circumstances,  such  as  large  visible  supplier  in 
this  country  and  Europe,  and  the  known  lurge 
quantities  in  farmers'  granaries,  and  good  pros- 
pects for  a  large  yield  of  the  growing  wint(T 
wheat — with  a  greatly  lessened  demand  from 
foreign  countries  compared  with  the  past  few 
years — and  the  existing  depression  in  general 
business  in  this  country.  These  prospective 
supplies  and  probable  demand  indicate,  that 
this  country  will  have  cheap  bread  for  this  year, 
1884. 

February  2oth,  1884. 


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